NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 14: D.J. Moore Goes Deep (Again) vs. Detroit

After my colleague, Josh Inglis, went +1.55 units in Week 13 filling in for me, we're back to building some momentum with two straight positive weeks for our NFL player props — and I'm looking to continue the winning ways with a full 16-game slate of NFL odds this week.

After a mid-season malaise, it's time to finish the season strong (just like the players I'm wagering on) and the Week 14 odds board is offering some exciting matchups to take advantage of.

So far, my free NFL picks are focused on a couple of guys using their legs against low totals, a pass-heavy QB to just get 200+ yards, two No. 1 receivers continuing to shine... and one to struggle.

Read on to see the full analysis — and check back later for a couple more picks — for my best NFL Week 14 player props.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Nico Collins Under 71.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
•  D.J. Moore longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+220 at Caesars)
  

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Week 14

Nico gets grounded

The Houston Texans offense is generally must-see TV each week, as QB C.J. Stroud has hit the ground running in his rookie season, while his No. 1 WR, Nico Collins, has been on a tear as of late.

However, going against a tough New York Jets defense — with some ugly weather expected — I see a receiving yards total of 71.5 and am betting the Under on Nico Collins' odds.

As Jason Logan calls out in his weekly NFL weather report, heavy rain and wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected on Sunday. That should curtail some of Stroud's downfield throws, which have been his (and Collins') bread-and-butter.

After three straight games at the comforts of the home dome of NRG Stadium, playing his first road game in a month (with this weather) might also exaggerate Collins' already noticeable road/home splits: In his last three road games, he has a combined nine catches for 103 yards (30, 39, 34).

Beyond the weather factor, Collins' matchup against the Jets is also just bad. He plays the majority (81.4%) of his snaps on the perimeter, meaning he'll face either Sauce Gardner (PFF's No. 4-ranked corner), who is one of the few CBs with the size, speed, and strength to take him one-on-one, or D.J. Reed (PFF's No. 8 CB), who is giving up just a 65% catch rate when targeted this season. 

This opened at 72.5 yards, and most outlets have since ticked down to 69.5 or 68.5. However, FanDuel is still offering a 71.5 available — with industry consensus sitting around 67 yards (and some projecting as low as 54), I'm confident that Houston's main man will have a relatively quiet day.

Prop: Nico Collins Under 71.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on December 8 at 10:09 a.m. ET

Gimme gimme Moore

This Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears should be one of the most offense-heavy of the Week 14 slate with the fifth-highest total of the week. There are several markets in the game that I could bet on (and still might) but the one that jumps out the most is Bears star WR D.J. Moore's odds to have a reception of 25 yards or longer.

After a torrid start to the season, which saw him log 506 yards in a four-game span, he hit a midseason malaise once QB Justin Fields went down with injury.

The two games since Fields returned, however, seemingly revitalized Moore as he's hauled in 18 catches for 210 yards in those contests (both on the road) with a 36 and 39-yarder in those games.

In fact: He's recorded a catch of 29+ yards in six straight games that Fields started and completed, as the young QB has been among the league's best deep-ball throwers. Among QBs with 10+ deep (20+ yards downfield) attempts this season, Fields is 17th in completions (despite missing four+ games), ninth in completion percentage, and is one of two quarterbacks with zero turnover-worthy plays.

Fields and Moore should be able to exploit a Lions secondary that plays a good mix of man and zone coverage but allows a high number of explosive plays, especially zone, where it has the fourth-worst explosive play rate  (per Pro Football Focus).

The Lions just gave up five passes of 24+ yards to WR last week against the Saints and 12 in their last four games since their bye week, including a 39-yarder to Moore in Week 11.

The weather could be messy in Soldier Field, with some wind, rain, and snow forecasted, but I feel that's going to hurt the Lions' defense more than Fields and Moore, so I'm confident the duo can pull off at least one chunk passing play.

Prop: D.J. Moore longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Pick made on December 8 at 8:29 a.m. ET.

Sutton brewin'

The Denver Broncos offense isn't pretty by any stretch, and QB Russell Wilson is again back to not putting up big passing numbers (200+ yards just once in his last eight games), but he's still thrown at least one passing TD in every game — more often than not going to No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton.

The veteran wideout has found paydirt in six of his last seven games, and nine of 12 overall, and in facing the porous Los Angeles Chargers secondary in Week 14, I can't pass up on the value available in betting on Courtland Sutton's odds to score another touchdown.

You can find this prop as long as +220 at Caesars, whereas some other operators are offering this as short as +120, offering some value against a Bolts defense that has allowed the fifth-most TD to wide receivers (13) and fourth-most receiving yards (180.8 per game) this season.

Sutton has firmly re-established himself as Wilson's favorite target, with a 42.4% target share among the Denver WR, and he's also leaned on in the Red Zone, as he has a 32% overall target share inside the 20, his 11 catches and 15 targets rank third and eighth among all NFL pass-catchers, and he leads the NFL with eight Red Zone touchdowns.

He's getting the vast majority of the opportunities and facing one of the league's worst secondaries in defending WR, considering teammate Jerry Jeudy is basically the same price (+230) but has all of one TD to his name this season, I'll sign up for Sutton to find paydirt against at better than 2/1 odds.

Prop: Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+220 at Caesars)
Pick made on December 7 at 5:21 p.m. ET.

Main Cook in the kitchen

Betting on James Cook odds has been very frustrating this season, as his snap count has declined from 67% to 43% over the last five weeks, but I'm taking the Over on his rushing total this Sunday against an exploitable Kansas City Chiefs run defense.

While Cook has been on the field less, as the Buffalo Bills have a crowded backfield that also includes Latavius Murray and Leonard Fournette, HC Sean McDermott has been deliberate in getting Cook the ball lately as he has posted two of his three highest rushing attempts totals the last two weeks.

He's also logged at least 12 carries in 10 of 12 games this season; where he averaged 71.5 yards per game in those contests and posted 43+ yards nine times.

As for KC, it has allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season — fifth-highest in the NFL — and has allowed the opposing No. 1 RB to average 85.8 yards and 4.8 ypc over its last five games.

This line opened at 42.5 yards and some operators have already moved up to 45.5 yards. Industry consensus models all project him for at least 51 yards, with some close to the 60-yard range.

Assuming he again gets 14-16 carries, even averaging just 4.0 ypc against this defense would get him to the 60-yard range. Against the Chiefs... he could get even more.

Prop: James Cook Over 44.5 rush yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Pick made on December 7 at 4:01 p.m. ET.

Tough ol' Ram

As the Los Angeles Rams visit the Baltimore Ravens coming out of their bye week, I already know this isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be a fight and a slog, due to both the opponent and the expected weather of high winds and rain, but I'm still betting the Over on Matthew Stafford's odds for his passing yards on Sunday because it's just too low.

I understand that the Ravens have the NFL's No. 2-ranked pass defense, but Stafford's total is sitting at just 199.5 yards; a number that is lower than some totals available for the likes of Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Will Levis, and basically on par with Zach Wilson (!!!).

That's too low for a quarterback who averages 251.6 ypg on the year and has topped 221 pass yards in nine of his 11 games. He's also seen some better play out of his offensive line recently, with zero sacks in his last two games and two over his last four (after 17 sacks the five games prior), and is coming off a 279-yard performance in Week 13 against the Browns... who are the league's top-ranked pass defense.

Stafford has thrown for more yards on the road (262.6 ypg) than at home (242.5) on the year, and with the Rams sitting as 7.5-point underdogs, the likely game script will be pass-heavy late as L.A. will be chasing points and playing catch-up. The winds may restrict downfield throws a bit, but Stafford has shown no problem with using check-downs and dink-and-dunk passes to excess.

Opposing QBs have reached 200 pass yards in four of Baltimore's last six games, and industry consensus projections average around 230 yards for Stafford, with some models ranging as high as 253 yards.

Again: This won't be fun to watch... but I'm confident that Stafford will get there.

Prop: Matthew Stafford Over 199.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 7 at 10:54 a.m. ET.

Brown(ing) line

So... the Cincinnati Bengals are Super Bowl contenders again! Jake Browning is the new Nick Foles! Who Dey!

OK, maybe I got a little overexcited there — the Lombardi Trophy might be a tad ambitious — but the Bengals might not exactly be a pushover with the 27-year-old rookie under center, as he looked more than competent in leading Cincy to an overtime win at Jacksonville last week.

Going against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14, I've seen enough to feel confident betting the Over on some Jake Browning odds, although I most like the value of him using his legs again on Sunday and topping his rushing yard total of 12.5.

Browning has averaged 23.7 rushing yards in the three games he's played in since Joe Burrow went down and the Colts, despite playing the league's highest percentage of zone and pass blitzing at the second-lowest rate, have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs this season, including 13+ yards to the opposing signal caller in eight of 13 games.

The Cincy QB hasn't run a ton, with just nine rushing attempts to amass these 71 yards over this stretch, but his 7.9 yards/attempt and 8.22 yards after contact are first among quarterbacks from Weeks 11-13. Industry projections sit around 18 yards, ranging as high as 26.3 yards, which gives a little bit of added confidence in Browning getting it done for us on Sunday.

For Canadian bettors, PointsBet Canada is currently hanging this line at 10.5 (albeit juiced at -145), but if you're not North of the border (or just don't want to pay that much juice for an extra two yards) you can get the 12.5 at a standard -110 price. 

Prop: Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 6 at 8:46 p.m. ET.

NFL Player props to target

These are yet-to-be released markets I have my eye on. If it comes out at a number/price I like... I'm likely going to bet on it.

Elijah Moore (Receiving yards): Was heavily targeted by Joe Flacco last Sunday — if Amari Cooper sits, he should get another heavy target share.

NFL Week 14 prop betting card

• Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Matthew Stafford Over 199.5 passing yards (-110)
• James Cook Over 44.5 rush yards (-120)
• Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+220)
• D.J. Moore longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-110)
• Nico Collins Under 71.5 receiving yards (-114)

Last week: 4-2
Season to date: 31-33, -2.93 units

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