The New England Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson early in the second round after a great career at Ohio State. While it took him a while to earn the trust of head coach Mike Vrabel, it looks like he's finally earned the starting job.
My NFL picks are backing the rookie running back on Monday Night Football, as Henderson headlines my favorite NFL player props for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Cam Ward |
Over 199.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Jonathan Taylor |
Under 85.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 TreVeyon Henderson |
Over 65.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Tetairoa McMillan |
Over 56.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Breece Hall |
Over 72.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 13
Prop pick: Cam Ward Over 199.5 passing yards
It’s been a rough season for Cam Ward, but the Tennessee Titans quarterback is trending in the right direction. The first overall pick in the 2025 draft, Ward has performed well despite being hampered by a brutal offensive line and the league’s worst wide receiver corps.
Ward is coming off a 256-yard outing against Seattle’s stingy defense and has thrown for more than 220 yards in five of his last seven games. The two contests where he fell short came against the Texans and Chargers, who rank second and third in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate.
He’ll face a much easier matchup at home this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 25th in defensive dropback success rate and allow 240 passing yards per game.
Jonathan Taylor Under 85.5 rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 1,159 rushing yards, but there are several reasons to temper expectations for him on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts running back has been held under 60 rushing yards in two of his last three games against the Chiefs and Steelers, both of whom effectively shut Taylor down.
Aside from a Week 2 matchup against Denver, most of Taylor’s big games have come against weaker defenses. The Houston Texans boast a stout run defense, allowing just 73.5 rushing yards per game to running backs — the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Taylor has gained most of his yardage on duo runs and outside zone runs. Houston, however, limits duo runs to just 3.4 yards per carry and outside zone runs to 3.7 ypc.
Prop pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 65.5 rushing yards
It took TreVeyon Henderson half a season to get going, but the rookie is now the New England Patriots' No. 1 running back. The second-round pick broke out with a 75-yard performance against the Browns in Week 8 and had a career-high 147 rushing yards versus the Bucs in Week 10.
There was some concern that his role would decline following the return of Rhamondre Stevenson last week. However, Stevenson finished with six carries for just five yards while Henderson logged 18 carries for 66 yards.
This week, Henderson and the Pats face a New York Giants squad that has been brutal against the run. The Giants rank dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (157.2), yards per carry (5.9), and run-defense DVOA.
Prop Pick: Tetairoa McMillan Over 56.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Carolina Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth pick in the draft, and he’s delivered. The rookie wideout leads Carolina in targets (96), receptions (56), and receiving yards (783).
Carolina is a 10.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, which should set up a pass-heavy script. With McMillan as the team’s primary reliable receiver, most throws will be headed his way.
While the Rams rank in the Top 10 across most defensive categories, their secondary has vulnerabilities. They sit 17th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers and allow the ninth-most adjusted receiving yards per game (155.0) to wideouts.
This is a five-star play according to our Covers EV analytics model, which projects McMillan for 71.4 receiving yards.
Prop Pick: Breece Hall Over 72.5 rushing yards (-114)
New York Jets running back Breece Hall has rushed for 766 yards this season on 4.6 yards per carry. He’ll churn out yards as long as he’s not facing a top run defense or the Jets aren’t forced to abandon the run due to game script.
On Sunday, Hall and the Jets host an Atlanta Falcons team that can’t stop the run and likely won’t build a big enough lead to take New York out of its ground game. This should be a competitive matchup, with the Jets listed as 2.5-point home underdogs against a Falcons squad that has dropped five of its last six.
Atlanta ranks 28th in run-defense success rate and sits 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.1).
NFL Week 13 prop betting card
- Ward o199.5 passing yards (-114)
- Taylor u85.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Henderson o65.5 rushing yards (-114)
- McMillan o56.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Hall o72.5 rushing yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 31-24 this season for +3.7 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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