NFL Conference Championship Best Bets and Player Props

Jan 24, 2021 |
NFL Conference Championship Best Bets and Player Props
The Buffalo Bills were one of the worst teams in the NFL in covering tight ends, which should spell a big day for Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship Game.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Buffalo Bills were one of the worst teams in the NFL in covering tight ends, which should spell a big day for Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship Game.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We’re down to the final four and, sadly, only have three more NFL betting opportunities left. It’s win and go to the Super Bowl...or lose and go home.

We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL odds market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!

Today, we’re looking at the best Kansas City Chiefs' props and going up and down the roster to find an edge.

We bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for the NFL Conference Finals.

Year to date record: 171-149 (53 percent)

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

Kansas City Team Props

Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker may have hit three field goals last week, but he also missed an extra-point and a 33-yard kick. Before last week’s game, the K.C. kicker had not even attempted more than one field goal in four straight games and had hit more than two FGs once since November 18.

The Chiefs’ offense is too efficient to settle for three and despite last week’s 2-for-5 showing in the red zone, they had scored TDs in nine of their last 12 trips inside their opponents' 20-yard line. At home, Butker has been needed just 14 times this year while Buffalo sits in the Top 10 in FG attempts allowed per game at 1.7.

We also saw with Andy Reid’s play-calling last week that the Chiefs are not afraid to roll the dice offensively. With Butker hitting the Over 1.5 field goals just once (last week) over his seven career playoff games and both coaches thinking field goals may not be enough to get to the Super Bowl, we’re hitting the Under 1.5.

PREDICTION: Kansas City Under 1.5 field goals (+100)

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (314.5 pass yds, 37.5 att, 26.5 comp, anytime TD +300)

Patrick Mahomes will play this Sunday after clearing concussion protocol, but the QB is also hampered by a likely turf toe injury that caused the star signal-caller a significant amount of discomfort last week. The toe injury is so significant that Mahomes’ rushing total is nowhere to be seen this weekend.

QBs are 5-15 O/U on passing attempt totals of 38 or higher in the 2021 playoffs while winning quarterbacks are 2-8 O/U. In his six career playoff games, Mahomes has topped 37 passing attempts just twice and needed only 26 passes to beat the Bills back in Week 6.

With so many uncertainties around Mahomes’ health and the offensive adjustments that Andy Reid may have to implement, we have to take the Under on the QB’s passing attempts total. There may be a little rain in the forecast as well.

PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes Under 37.5 passing attempts (-120)

Kansas City RB Darrel Williams (41.5 rush yds, anytime TD +160)

Chiefs running back Darrel Williams out-snapped Le’Veon Bell 54-11 last week versus the Browns and managed 78 rushing yards on 13 carries. This week, rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will likely suit up for the first time since Week 15, while Bell is on the wrong side of questionable heading into Sunday’s game.

Even with CEH drawing back into the lineup, we’d expect Williams to still be a big part of the game plan. The Chiefs like to use one running back for an entire series and if the Bills bait the Chiefs into running the ball with a lot of two-high safety looks, Williams could easily hit a dozen rushes against a defense that is giving up over five yards per carry to opposing RBs through two playoff games.

With Patrick Mahomes not 100 percent with a concussion and toe injury, Andy Reid may need to lean on the backfield more and Williams is the healthiest runner that the Chiefs have.

PREDICTION: Darrel Williams Over 41.5 rushing yards (-112)

Kansas City TE Travis Kelce (96.5 rec yds, 7.5 rec, anytime TD -125)

Baltimore TE Mark Andrews was targeted a team-high 11 times last week against the Bills but brought in just four of those balls, thanks to a combination of strong winds and inaccurate passes. The game before that, Buffalo let three Colts TEs top their receiving yard totals and surrendered 136 combined yards and 14 catches to Indy’s TEs.

The Bills’ lack of success against opposing TEs has been well documented this season, as no team has allowed more receptions to tight ends than the Bills. Linebacker Matt Milano will have the difficult task in trying to stop Travis Kelce, who has reached at least 98 yards receiving in seven of his last nine games.

The Bills “held” Kelce to 5/65/2 in week 6 but with the Chiefs rushing 46 times – compared to 26 passes – Kelce wasn’t needed as much to move the sticks.

We’re expecting another big performance under the bright lights as Kelce has five inches and 40 pounds on his primary defender and gets to face arguably the worst TE-defending defense. We’re also throwing down on his anytime TD which is a bargain at -125—considering it was -200 a week ago.

PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Over 95.5 receiving yards (-112) and anytime TD (-125)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Tampa Bay Team Props

Although we would rather bet Green Bay -3 than Tampa Bay, we do expect the Buccaneers to flirt with their team total of 23.5. Bruce Arians’ team averaged 3.6 touchdowns per game and slightly more on the road in 2020.

Weather will not be a problem for Tom Brady, who has helped his team score three or more TDs in nine straight games. The defense has helped pump up those stats as the Buccaneers are one of the league’s best takeaway teams, forcing 1.7 turnovers per game.

These teams met back in Week 6 and Tampa Bay managed four TDs in the second quarter alone in a 38-10 win.

If the Bucs want to beat Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, they can’t settle for field goals and will hopefully be more aggressive in their play-calling in the attacking red zone.

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay Over 2.5 total touchdowns (-120)

 

Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady (285.5 pass yds, 38.5 att, 24.5 comp, anytime TD +600)

Last week was the first game that Brady failed to hit the 300-yard passing mark since Week 14. The 6.0 yards per pass was his second-lowest mark of the year—and it may not get easier this week in Lambeau.

The Packers are strong in the secondary, which is anchored by one of the best corners in the league in Jaire Alexander—PFF’s No. 1-rated cornerback.

At home this season, Green Bay is giving up a league-low 184.4 passing yards per game. Only one QB has topped 260 yards passing at Lambeau this year and five of the last seven have failed to even reach 200 yards.

The 49ers knocked out the Packers in last year’s NFC Championship and did so by rushing for 285 yards, as San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo finished with just 77 yards passing. We aren’t saying Brady and the Bucs will be going full-blown Shanahan, but we wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa leaned on the run a little more this week.

PREDICTION: Tom Brady Under 285.5 passing yards (-112)

Tampa Bay RB Ronald Jones II (35.5 rush yds, anytime TD +120)

Ronald Jones II escaped the divisional round without reinjuring his quad, which kept him out of the Wild Card game. Jones was the better runner last weekend, taking 13 rushes for 62 yards (4.8 ypc). Fellow RB Leonard Fournette has earned a share of the touches in the backfield, but with Jones approaching full health, we could possibly see him take on a bigger role Sunday against the Packers.

The Bucs showed a propensity for rushing on early downs versus the Saints, despite New Orleans’ stout run defense. This week, Tampa faces a Packers rush defense that finished the year ranked in the bottom half of the league in DVOA rush defense, per Football Outsiders.

Jones has topped 60 yards rushing in five of his last six games and shouldn’t have a problem gaining yards against a Green Bay defense that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Last week, L.A.’s Cam Akers rushed 18 times for 90 yards in a mostly negative game script.

With his improved health and an insanely low rushing total, RJ2 is a must-play for us.

PREDICTION: Ronald Jones Over 35.5 rushing yards (-112)

 

Tampa Bay WR Tyler Johnson (anytime TD +700)

Bucs receiver Antonio Brown saw 29 snaps last week (third-most on the team) but will not suit up this weekend against the Packers. Brown’s loss could mean some more action for rookie Tyler Johnson.

The fifth-round pick made one catch last week but showcased his talent in doing so. Johnson was fourth amongst Tampa receivers in snaps (21) and Brown’s absence could mean more looks from Brady, who seems to have a lot of trust in the young pass catcher.

With so much talent ahead of Johnson on the depth chart, he will likely see the least attention out of any Tampa Bay receiver. Green Bay gave up six catches, 46 yards and a score to Rams rookie WR Van Jefferson a week ago and the role similarities between him and Johnson are eerie.

Johnson’s receiving totals are hard to find but worth keeping an eye out for. If his total does hit the board, it would be well worth it at around 10-20 receiving yards. Until then, we have to make Johnson our longshot TD of the week at very mouthwatering +700.

PREDICTION: Tyler Johnson anytime TD (+700)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

Green Bay Team Prop

Coming off the bye, the Green Bay Packers dropped 32 points on a defense everyone was calling the best in the league. Yes, Aaron Donald wasn’t at full strength, but the other Aaron looked better than any other QB in the playoffs. This week, the league’s likely MVP gets to torch a secondary that might be filled with false confidence after picking Drew Brees three times last week.

Brees never tested the Tampa secondary downfield last week. That could change this Sunday for the warm-weathered Buccaneers. 

Rodgers pushed the offense for scores in his first five possessions last week and averaged 31.7 points per game at home this year.

Let’s not forget, it was only three weeks ago when this Tampa defense made Washington third-stringer Taylor Heinicke look like an All-Pro in the Wild Card game. Washington scored 23 points and got touchdowns in 3 of 4 trips inside the Tampa red zone.

The Packers have topped 27 points in four of their last five home games. 

PREDICTION: Green Bay team total Over 27.5 (-120)

 

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (283.5 pass yds, 36.5 att, 25.5 comp, 9.5 rush yds, anytime TD +550)

Rodgers was the only QB to hit the Over on his passing yards total last week. He has averaged 258 yards per game at home this year despite a 122 QB rating and has not hit 300 yards passing since Week 10. Needless to say, Rodgers doesn’t have to pump up the numbers to have a successful game. 

The Buccaneers allowed 29 passing TDs this year, which puts them outside the Top 15, but they finished the year giving up just 215 passing yards on the road. The Bucs defense will not be gifted three INTs this week, as Rodgers looks like he is on a mission and enjoying his time dismantling defenses.

Eight times this year the Green Bay QB has tossed two-plus TDs but thrown for under 300 yards. We’re taking a middling approach to the mustached marvel and hitting the Over 2.5 TDs at plus money and pairing it with the Under 283.5 passing yards. If there is any quarterback that can pull off this efficient feat, it’s Lambeau’s leader.

PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing TDs (+145) and Under 283.5 passing yards (-112)

Green Bay RB Aaron Jones (59.5 rush yds, 23.5 rec yards, 3.5 rec, anytime TD -115)

Aaron Jones has not had 16 or more touches in three straight games thanks to RBs Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon getting in on the action. Luckily for Jones supporters, both Williams and Dillon have been limited in practice this week. 

Jones is more than capable of handling any extra snaps if Williams isn’t 100 percent come Sunday. Williams and Dillon accounted for 18 of the Packers’ 32 RB rushes last week and had seven red-zone rushes combined. 

Jones has found the endzone in nine of his 15 games this year, including three of his last four. He struggled to gain yards in an early matchup this year versus the Bucs but did score a one-yard rushing TD. 

With both backups struggling to get in a full practice, Jones could be in for a couple more carries and could absorb their important goal-line workload as well.

PREDICTION: Aaron Jones anytime TD (-115)

 

Green Bay WR Allen Lazard (45.5 rec yds, 3.5 rec, anytime TD +230)

It was receiver Allen Lazard who led the Packers in receiving yards last week and not Davante Adams. Lazard had 96 yards on four grabs (eight targets) and hauled in a 58-yard fourth-quarter TD. Lazard lines up in the slot in 3-WR personnel and we love his matchup against Tampa slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting.

Murphy-Bunting may have picked off Drew Brees last week, but the sophomore corner could be in trouble versus a much bigger Lazard. The Green Bay receiver has a whopping five inches and thirty pounds on the slot corner, who ranks 74th out of 121 CBs, per PFF. If Tampa goes to man, this will be a matchup to exploit, especially with the likely safety help needed for Adams. 

Now finally healthy after a Week 3 core injury, Lazard could be a big piece of the Packers’ Super Bowl bid. The wind is looking light for Sunday and with Rodgers throwing him the rock, Lazard is a candidate to top his receiving yard total in a single play. 

PREDICTION: Allen Lazard Over 45.5 receiving yards (-112)

NFL Prop Picks for Thursday

Buffalo QB Josh Allen (308.5 pass yds, 26.5 comp, 39.5 att, 32.5 rush yds)

Josh Allen failed to top most of his player props last week versus Baltimore but a strong wind at Bills Stadium was partially to blame. In a game where his team only had nine rushes from RBs, Allen had 37 pass attempts and only ran 55 plays for 220 yards of offense.

We wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills ran the ball a bit more against a Kansas City defense that finished with the 31st DVOA rush defense, per Football Outsiders, keeping Allen’s passing attempts under the 40 mark. OC Brian Daboll is one of the better matchup game plan coordinators and has no problem switching things up game-to-game.

No QB has attempted more than 37 passes against the Chiefs since Week 14.

PREDICTION: Josh Allen Under 39.5 pass attempts (-125)

The Chiefs have not had to face many mobile QBs this year but back in Week 8, Allen rushed eight times for 42 yards against KC. The only other threat that Andy Reid’s team saw all season was Lamar Jackson (Week 3) who had 83 yards on nine carries.

Allen has scaled down his rushing attempts this year but has reached 28 yards rushing in six of his last nine games. He has also had bigger games on the ground against teams that are better against the pass —like the Chiefs.

PREDICTION: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115)

 

Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs (93.5 rec yds, 7.5 rec, anytime TD -105)

Stefon Diggs faced five positively-graded DBs last week and still finished with eight grabs and 106 yards—and the Bills only passed for 206 total yards. The Buffalo wide receiver has topped 100 yards in five of his last six games and has been held to under 92 yards just twice in his last 11 contests.

With Cole Beasley looking less than 100 percent and Gabriel Davis nursing some wounds from last week’s win, Diggs could be in for an even bigger piece of the pie against a Chiefs team that starts a pair of mediocre corners. Safety Tyrann Mathieu is K.C.'s highest-graded DB but he is better in the run game than in coverage.

Diggs is good in short, intermediate and deep routes and is a safe play even if it does rain in Kansas City on Sunday. If he can amass 106 yards in the winds of last week, he may be weatherproof—even at such a high number.

PREDICTION: Stefon Diggs Over 93.5 receiving yards (-112)

Buffalo RB Devin Singletary (39.5 rush yds, 19.5 rec yds, 2.5 rec, anytime TD +190)

The Bills’ starting running back saw his number called just seven times last week as the team drew up a no-run game plan against the Ravens. Devin Singletary has not impressed this year and lost early-down work to rookie Zack Moss. Moss is out, which leaves Singletary as the most trusted back and with the Chiefs likely game-planning to stop the passing game, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if Daboll went with the unexpected.

At 39.5 yards, Singletary would need just 10 carries at his 4.4 YPC clip to hit the Over on his rushing total. In Kansas City’s sole loss this season when its starters were playing, the Raiders rushed the ball 35 times against the Chiefs.

On the year, K.C. allowed 101 rushing yards to opposing running backs, and with the defense likely expecting more of Josh Allen, Singletary could be a sneaky play with such a low total.

PREDICTION: Devin Singletary Over 39.5 rushing yards (-112)

 

Buffalo WR John Brown (50.5 rec yds, anytime TD +200)

With most of the attention going to Diggs in the Divisional game, John Brown quietly tied for the team lead in targets and hit the Over on his receiving yard total five minutes into the second quarter.

There may be fewer healthy mouths to feed this weekend with Davis missing practice Wednesday after injuring his ankle in the first quarter last week, while Beasley was basically used as a decoy against the Ravens and seems to be still working his way back to full health.

Brown has had at least 62 receiving yards in four of his previous five games and could be a big benefactor if the Chiefs leave him in single coverage as they try to slow down Diggs.

PREDICTION: John Brown Over 50.5 receiving yards (-112)

NFL Conference Championship Prop Betting Card

  • Kansas City Under 1.5 field goals (+100)
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 37.5 passing attempts (-120)
  • Darrel Williams Over 41.5 rushing yards (-112)
  • Travis Kelce Over 95.5 receiving yards (-112) and anytime TD (-125)

     - - 

  • Tampa Bay Over 2.5 total touchdowns (-120)
  • Tom Brady Under 285.5 passing yards (-112)
  • Ronald Jones Over 35.5 rushing yards (-112)
  • Tyler Johnson anytime TD (+700)

     - - 

  • Green Bay team total Over 27.5 (-120)
  • Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing TDs (+145) and Under 283.5 passing yards (-112)
  • Aaron Jones anytime TD (-115)
  • Allen Lazard Over 45.5 receiving yards (-112)

     - - 

  • Josh Allen Under 39.5 pass attempts (-125)
  • Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Stefon Diggs Over 93.5 receiving yards (-112)
  • Devin Singletary Over 39.5 rushing yards (-112)
  • John Brown Over 50.5 receiving yards (-112)

Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?

You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbook. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.

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