Bengals vs Cowboys Week 2 Props: Mixon Returns to Form

There are no darker storm clouds in the NFL than those above Jerry World right now, and there's unlikely to be a break in the rain as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2.

Almost impossibly, Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in an overtime marathon last week but it did give little glimpses of the juggernaut we came to know last season. That familiar sight may be found in Dallas this week, as it faces a Cowboys team looking at two months without Dak Prescott.

In what could be a big-time, one-sided blowout, we explore the NFL player props market for the Bengals vs. Cowboys. 

Bengals vs Cowboys prop picks

• Hurst Over 26.5 receiving yards
• Mixon Under 3.5 receptions
• Mixon Over 17.5 carries

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Bengals vs Cowboys Week 2 props

Hurst so good

The eventual selection of Kyle Pitts took away any opportunity for former first-round pick Hayden Hurst to thrive in Atlanta under Arthur Smith, but the 29-year-old has again found himself in a great situation. Hurst was signed by the Bengals in free agency as a replacement for the departed CJ Uzomah, filling the friendly, tertiary role needed beyond Cincinnati's pass-catcher corps.

Hurst made an immediate impact in Week 1, seeing eight targets and turning it into five catches and 46 yards. His 15% target share was around what Hurst garnered in 2020 in Atlanta, in which he averaged per-game career highs of 5.5 targets, 3.5 catches, and 35.6 yards, while he ran a route on 81.1% of Bengals dropbacks — an identical mark to his route participation in 2020.

Despite Hurst's strong Week 1 and the potential for Tee Higgins to miss Week 2 with a concussion, the tight end's receiving yards total sits at just 26.5 for Sunday. That feels about 10 yards too low, after Hurst's strong Bengals debut.

Hurst averaged nearly 10 yards more than this line in 2020, his last full season as a No. 1 tight end, and went Over 26.5 yards in 10 of 16 games that season. The Bengals may be in clock-killing mode in the fourth quarter of this game but Hurst will draw enough opportunities to go Over this total. 

Hayden Hurst Prop: Over 26.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Mixon it up 

With memories of Samaje Perine getting crucial snaps in the Super Bowl fresh in minds, Bengals fans and Joe Mixon fantasy managers alike delighted in the tailback's passing game usage in Week 1. Rarely involved in the passing game, Mixon saw career highs in targets (9) and catches (7) against the Steelers.

While Mixon's fully capable of garnering a steady workload in the passing game, it shouldn't be expected — certainly not in the short term. 

The game flow against Pittsburgh was a tremendous assist to Mixon's production as a pass catcher, with the Bengals playing from behind for huge chunks and Joe Burrow attempting 53 passes. The ridiculous amount of opportunity — Cincinnati played 100 snaps on offense — was made greater for Mixon due to Higgins' early concussion and departure.  

Yet, even in that opportunity, there are reasons for pause. Mixon's career-high day as a pass catcher came on a career-high day for snaps but his route participation wasn't greatly different from last year (53.6% to 60.1%). And, while Mixon wasn't short on chances as a result of the marathon game, Perine still played over a quarter of the snaps on offense.

We have a lot of evidence, on the back of Week 1, that Mixon's role in this offense hasn't changed but rather that last Sunday was an anomaly. With that in mind, fading his catches total is the play. Mixon averaged 2.6 catches per game last year and recorded fewer than four catches in nine of 16 games. 

Against a Cowboys team that will struggle to muster much offense, there will be no reason for Mixon to have an outsized role in the passing game. 

Joe Mixon Prop: Under 3.5 receptions (-135)

Keep Joe clean

While we shouldn't expect Mixon's production as a pass catcher to sustain, a sizable workload as a runner should be the expectation on Sunday.

Mixon was third in the NFL in carries last year, with a career-high 292, and went Over his carries total of 17.5 for Week 2 in nine of 16 games (and finished with 17 and 16 in another two). After a 27-carry Week 1, the Bengals have plenty of motivation to again give him a heavy dose of carries against Dallas.

Fresh off a season in which Burrow took 51 sacks, the Bengals watched their retooled line allow seven sacks to Pittsburgh. Now, the team has to face a vicious Cowboys pass rush, with Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons as formidable of a duo as there is in the NFL. There's no better way to protect Burrow and keep him clean than to repeatedly give the ball to Mixon. 

Cincinnati won't exactly be sacrificing efficiency to do so, either. In a poor Week 1 performance for the Cowboys, no phase was worse than their run defense. As a result, few players around the league looked as good as Leonard Fournette did, as the once-overweight tailback averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in a 127-yard performance.

Finally, there's the matter of game script. Dallas was horrendous — Dak Prescott included — last week and now it has to turn the keys over to Cooper Rush. Oof. The Cowboys are 7-point underdogs at the time of writing and could easily be rendered uncompetitive early in this game. 

As the Bengals did in their 10-win 2021, they'll lean on Mixon to kill off the game. 

Joe Mixon Prop: Over 17.5 carries (-120)

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