My Bengals vs. Broncos predictions believe we're in for a mismatch in the trenches on Monday Night Football tonight. ABC has the coverage at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Jake Browning has been a turnover machine since taking over for Joe Burrow, throwing five picks and taking four sacks in just six quarters, so it's no surprise that the Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in a game featuring a total of 44.5.
My NFL picks for September 29 suggest this is a classic bully spot.
Bengals vs Broncos prediction
Bengals vs Broncos Best bet: Broncos -7.5 (-105)
Jake Browning has taken four sacks and thrown five interceptions in just six-plus quarters since Joe Burrow went down. He’s faced some tough defenses, but Week 4 might be his worst matchup yet — on the road, at altitude, against a Denver Broncos pass rush that’s been dominant.
This game shapes up as the most lopsided OL vs. DL battle of the Week 4 slate, per Brandon Thorn. Denver ranks first in pressure rate and fifth in pass rush win rate, while the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line is dead last in pass block win rate and 31st in pressure rate allowed. That’s a brutal setup for a QB who already looks overwhelmed.
On the other side, Denver’s offensive line should have no problem moving the ball against a Bengals run defense that ranks 26th in EPA per rush. The Broncos likely won’t need more than 24 points to cover this spread — and with Cincinnati’s team total sitting at just 17.5, that tracks. THE BLITZ projects this game with a spread of 8.04 and a Bengals total of 17.04.
Injuries aren't the story here — it's simply a bad matchup for Browning. He’s consistently playing behind the sticks, Chase Brown hasn’t helped (averaging just 2.0 yards per carry on 47 attempts), and Ja’Marr Chase has to deal with Patrick Surtain on the outside.
This doesn't feel like a spot for a backdoor cover. Browning is making too many mistakes, and Denver’s defense has the pieces to take advantage. I like Browning for 2+ interceptions at +250 or better, but there’s also a non-zero chance he doesn’t finish the game. If things spiral, Brett Rypien is waiting in the wings.
From a market perspective, I think this is a spot where Denver trends upward — and Cincinnati continues its slide.
Bengals vs Broncos MNF same-game parlay
The Broncos will be running with the lead from start to finish, and JK Dobbins is the back to get it down this week. Sean Payton's backfields can be messy at times, but it was Dobbins handling a season-high snap share last week in neutral game script, and he has 75% of the team's RB carries this year while also having a role in the passing game.
Just last week, Jordan Mason took 16 carries for 116 rushing yards and two scores despite Minnesota going up 34-3 at halftime. The Broncos will dominate the time of possession Monday night, and if Dobbins stays on the field, he is going to stack some stats.
Bengals vs Broncos 3-leg SGP
- JK Dobbins 2+ TD
- JK Dobbins Over 65.5 rushing yards
- Broncos moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Bengals bullied
Troy Franklin's TD price has fallen from +280 to +200 this week because of his heavy route and snap shares. He isn't Courtland Sutton, but he is shaping up as a big WR2 for this team and has separated himself from Marvin Mims. Browning is allergic to turnover-free football and will shoot himself in the foot Monday night vs. this defense on the road.
Bengals vs Broncos big-ticket SGP
- JK Dobbins 2+ TD
- Troy Franklin TD
- Jake Browning Over 0.5 interceptions
Bengals vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +7.5 (-108) | Denver -7.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +350 | Denver -450
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
Bengals vs Broncos game predictions
Bengals vs Broncos moneyline prediction
I'll need more than +350 to think about this Bengals team on the road. What good are the pass-catchers when Browning isn't going to have time, and his safety blanket, TE Noah Fant, is doubtful?
The Bengals will struggle to score two TDs Monday night.
Bengals vs Broncos spread prediction
If Joe Burrow were in this game, this spread would be closer to 3.5 points than 7.5. This opened at 6.5 and has bounced around 7 and 7.5 this week.
The sharp side is likely the uglier side, but sometimes teams are worse than we think, and that's how I feel about the Bengals.
On the other hand, the Broncos can be a much better team, especially with Bo Nix, but that defense is going to keep them in every game. The Denver defenders are licking their chops for this matchup.
Bengals vs Broncos Over/Under prediction
This total was 44 on the lookahead and reopened at 44.5 on Sunday night. It has seen a little movement to the flat 44. I think there are two ways to approach this total.
Under 44 and bet that Denver shuts the Bengals down, or the Denver TT Over 26.5 and expect the Broncos to dominate the TOP while creating points off of turnovers.
Bengals vs Broncos betting trend to know
The Broncos have hit the moneyline in eight of their last nine games at home (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Broncos.
How to watch Bengals vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, September 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Learn how to live stream Bengals vs. Broncos for free.
Bengals vs Broncos latest injuries
Bengals vs Broncos weather
Expect a classic Denver evening at Empower Field at Mile High: mild at kickoff and cooling quickly after sunset. With a daytime high near the upper-70s and an overnight low around the upper-40s, temperatures should start in the low-60s and slide into the low-50s by the fourth quarter. Skies trend partly cloudy; any spotty thundershowers favored earlier in the day should fade at night, though a brief sprinkle can’t be ruled out.
The thin, dry mile-high air will give the ball extra carry, aiding deep shots and long field goals, but the cooler late-game temps can make the ball a bit harder and slicker, affecting grip and timing. If a stray breeze or residual shower shows up, it would favor the more balanced offense and the team that protects the football. Wet or cool balls often mean shorter passing concepts, more ground game, and heightened special-teams variance on punts and kicks.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Bengals vs Broncos predictions for Monday Night Football
- Bengals vs. Broncos props
- Bengals vs. Broncos same game parlay picks
- Bengals vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Bengals vs. Broncos computer picks
- Bo Nix prop picks
- Monday Night Football odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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