Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow showed why he’s won the NFL’s “Comeback Player of the Year” twice, leading his team to an upset win on Thanksgiving in his return to action.
Burrow and the Bengals now travel to frigid Orchard Park to take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 14.
My early Bengals vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks run down the opening odds and more for this December 7 matchup.
Bengals vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Bengals vs Bills spread pick: Bengals +5.5
The look-ahead line before Joe Burrow’s return was Buffalo Bills -7. After the Cincinnati Bengals stunned the Baltimore Ravens last Thursday, that line dipped to -6.5.
The official opener hit the board at Bills -5.5 on Sunday night — a bit of a dead zone that allows bookmakers to react to action, injuries, and weather without sticking their necks out. If we get to Bengals +6.5, I think we'll see buyback on the visitor.
Buffalo does have some important ailments anchoring this spread, especially on the offensive line. The Bills were able to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers and a one-handed Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, but this Bengals attack can really test Buffalo’s defense.
Cincinnati kept pouring on the points even when Burrow went down in Week 2. With the stud QB back and WR2 Tee Higgins hopefully returning from a concussion that cost him Week 13, the Bengals are one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Early Bengals vs Bills total pick: Under 51.5
This Over/Under opened as high as 53.5 points and quickly got cut down, crossing the key number of 53 and sitting just above the next key stop of 51 points.
There is no shortage of offensive firepower on the field in Week 14, so the tall total is warranted. However, the extended forecast for Highmark Stadium calls for cold with possible snow and stronger wind gusts.
Even without winter weather, the Under could be a smart way to wager. Buffalo loves to run the ball, which leads to shorter gains and extended drives chewing up the clock. Cincinnati’s run stop is rotten overall, sitting near the bottom of most advanced metrics in 2025.
That said, this Bengals defense has played better in recent weeks — which isn’t too hard considering how piss poor they were. Since Week 11, Cincinnati has climbed to the middle of the pack in terms of EPA allowed per play.
Should the Orchard Park forecast get worse as the week goes on, we could see this total slide to 51 points or beyond.
Bengals vs Bills odds
- Bengals vs. Bills spread: Bills -5.5
- Bengals vs. Bills moneyline: Bengals +235, Bills -290
- Bengals vs. Bills Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Bengals vs Bills
- Bengals vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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