Bears vs Falcons Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Chicago Rides With Fields to Get the Dub

Heading into the season, expectations for the Chicago Bears were less record focused and were more pointed in the direction of the development of second-year quarterback Justin Fields. And for that reason, Chicago fans everywhere are seemingly excited despite three straight losses and a 3-7 record heading into Week 11.

It will travel to face the Atlanta Falcons who were unexpectedly still firmly in the playoff picture as of a few weeks ago, but after two losses, now sit outside looking in. Stopgap quarterback Marcus Mariota will look to bounce back from a shaky Thursday Night Football performance and get Atlanta back into playoff contention.

Will Fields continue to flash (but this time while bringing home a win) or will the home side take care of business and get one step closer to a potential Wild Card spot? Find out in our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Bears vs. Falcons.

Bears vs Falcons best odds

Bears vs Falcons picks and predictions

Today's relentless tendency to label unproductive rookie and second-year quarterbacks as busts is likely a product of a historically unprecedented amount of rookie and redshirt quarterback success stories. The likes of Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow hit the ground running when handed the reins early on in their careers, and that suddenly became the expected norm.

That expectation has led to many wrongfully declaring the likes of Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts busts early on, yet those names are at the top in terms of NFL MVP odds this season. Justin Fields was similarly declared a definitive bust as of just over a month ago, but he has turned things around at arguably the fastest pace of any of these "late" bloomers.

The Ohio State alum has finally been allowed to tap into his elite athleticism (he ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at the combine in 2021) and has racked up 80+ rushing yards in four of the last five games. That includes 147 yards and 178 yards in the last two weeks, the latter now standing as the single-game all-time record. He also has five rushing touchdowns during that five-game span.

His arm talent is starting to emerge as well, as he once ranked last in QBR earlier this season and now ranks 11th. In the last three games alone he has seven touchdowns and just one interception: through Week 7 he had a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. Mind you he is doing this with a bottom-of-the-barrel wide receiver corps as well.

On Sunday he draws a Falcons' defense that ranks 30th according to DVOA, 30th in yards per drive, and 28th in points per drive. Fields alone has put together 300 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in each of the last two games. The Bears have also averaged 31 points in the last four weeks during Fields' emergence.

There was plenty of time to doubt Fields and the vast majority were unshy doing so, but now is no longer the time to do it. Expect Fields to keep the dominant play going and have it result in a win on Sunday.

My best bet: Chicago Bears moneyline (+150 at bet365)

Bears vs Falcons spread analysis

The spread opened at a very safe Falcons -3 and has stayed close to that all week.

Since taking over as the Falcons' head coach, Arthur Smith has been a home favorite four times. His record against the spread in those games is 0-4.

The Bears' new head coach Matt Eberflus has been a road underdog five times this year, and has gone 2-3 ATS in those games.

Bears vs Falcons Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 49.5 and the number has largely stayed there at most shops, with a few moving to a flat 49.

Chicago has played 6-4 to the Over this season, which includes four straight towards the Over now.

Atlanta has played an even 5-5 on totals this season, but has gone Under in the last two and in five of the last seven.

Bears vs Falcons betting trend to know

The Chicago Bears have played to the Over in four straight games, scoring an average of 31 points and allowing an average of 32.3 during that span. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Falcons.

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