NFL touchdown props have been the moneymaker so far — up over 22 units on the season — and this week offers more soft lines, favorable matchups, and a few longshot plays worth targeting.
Whether it's early-morning action or prime-time drama, here are the best NFL picks for Week 6.
Best Week 6 TD props
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Broncos vs Jets |
Troy Franklin +240 |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
Jaylen Warren +100 |
 Chargers vs  Dolphins |
Keenan Allen +180 |
 Patriots vs  Saints |
Hunter Henry +200 |
 Seahawks vs  Jaguars |
Hunter Long +400 |
 Cardinals vs  Colts |
Michael Carter +200 |
 Rams vs  Ravens |
Blake Corum +400 |
 Cowboys vs  Panthers |
Jake Ferguson +150 |
 Titans vs  Raiders |
Gunner Helm +550 |
 49ers vs  Buccaneers |
Tez Johnson +500 |
 Bengals vs  Packers |
Ja'Marr Chase +185 |
 Lions vs  Chiefs |
Xavier Worthy +145 |
 Bills vs Falcons |
Kyle Pitts +255 |
 Bears vs  Commanders |
Caleb Williams +340 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Broncos vs Jets
Troy Franklin ( +240 at DraftKings) A
The Broncos have a soft matchup early Sunday, facing a Jets defense that’s allowing more points per game than 30 other teams. Now they have to fly across the Atlantic and try to stop Denver.
New York has given up at least 27 points in every game so far, against the Steelers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Cowboys. With Denver’s team total set at 26.5, there’s a strong case for the Broncos offense to deliver, and Troy Franklin stands out as the best value among the skill players.
The backfield remains a guessing game under Sean Payton, so the focus shifts to Franklin — a receiver tied for the team lead in targets per route run and leading all Denver pass catchers with seven red-zone targets. He’s seen at least one red-zone look in four straight games.
This is a generous price for a WR2 in a great matchup. I have his fair odds closer to +200.
Cardinals vs Colts
Michael Carter (+200 at DraftKings) A+
With Trey Benson and James Conner on IR, Emari Demercado should’ve seen more work — but after that brutal touchdown-to-touchback moment last week that cost me, it’s clear the Cardinals trust Michael Carter the most right now.
Carter handled 23 of 31 running back opportunities in the loss to Tennessee, and he’s set up for another heavy workload this week in a dome game, likely getting the majority of goal-line work again.
He saw two red-zone carries last week and punched in a 1-yard TD to open the game. Zonovan Knight got goal-line touches as well, but he was only on the field for 16% of snaps. At +450, Knight is a decent dart throw, but this is still Carter’s backfield.
Carter’s touchdown odds closed at +125 last week. I make his fair price around +135 to +140 in what sets up as a bounce-back spot for the offense.
Cowboys vs Panthers
Jake Ferguson ( +150 at DraftKings) A
The Dallas offense hasn’t missed a beat without CeeDee Lamb, finishing tied for the second-best EPA/play last week despite being without both Lamb and KaVonte Turpin. Both are questionable again this week vs. Carolina, which sets up another strong opportunity for Jake Ferguson.
Ferguson leads all tight ends with 30 targets over the last three weeks and has been a consistent red-zone weapon, turning five RZ targets into three touchdowns during that span. He closed at +145 to score last week and found the end zone twice.
The Panthers have already allowed touchdowns to Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, and Hunter Long this season. If Lamb or Turpin sit again, Ferguson’s price could dip below +130 — especially with George Pickens sitting near even money.
Tight end TD props at short prices aren’t ideal, but Ferguson’s volume and red-zone usage make this one hard to pass up.
Chargers vs Dolphins
Keenan Allen (+180 at DraftKings) B
I’ve had success backing Chargers WRs for touchdowns this season, and the strategy has been simple: avoid the shortest price. After Ladd McConkey found the end zone last week, the value shifts to Keenan Allen, who’s worth a look at +170 or better this week.
The Chargers’ run game was already in a tough spot heading into last week — and losing Omarion Hampton only made it worse. This is one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, both in raw pass rate and pass rate over expected, and that trend should continue in Week 6 against a soft Miami secondary allowing nearly two passing touchdowns per game.
What separates Allen from the pack this week is his red-zone usage. While the WR touchdown odds are clustered, Allen has a clear edge: six of the last nine WR red-zone targets and eight of 17 on the season. He’s turned those into three scores, trailing only Romeo Doubs and Amon-Ra St. Brown in red-zone TDs among WRs.
If you're betting a Chargers WR to score, Allen is the sharp angle at the current number.
Patriots vs Saints
Hunter Henry ( +200 at DraftKings) A
Stefon Diggs was the focal point of the Patriots’ offense last week, but some of that felt scripted against his former team. Quietly, Hunter Henry still saw a red-zone target for the fourth straight game, and since Week 2, only one tight end has more RZ looks. Henry also leads all TEs in targets inside the 5-yard line over that stretch, with four.
The backfield remains a mess, even with Antonio Gibson sidelined. TreVeyon Henderson continues to be underused, and both backs are priced shorter than +140, cutting into each other’s value.
Henry offers a cleaner path. He’s a steady volume play in an indoor matchup against the Saints, who just allowed two tight-end touchdowns last week. If New England moves the ball, Henry is in a prime spot. I’d play this down to +170 or +175.
Browns vs Steelers
Jaylen Warren (+100 at DraftKings) A
I’m not as high on the Browns’ defense as I was earlier this season. They let me down in Week 5 against a banged-up Vikings offensive line in London, and now head back to the U.S. to face a rested Steelers team with a healthy Jaylen Warren. Minnesota put up 349 yards of offense vs. the Browns last Sunday morning.
Warren may be sitting near even money to score, but with two weeks to recover from a knee issue, he should return to his usual 20-opportunity role.
In the first three games of the season, he racked up 13 red-zone opportunities — tied for fifth-most in the league during that span. If Pittsburgh can get to 20+ points, Warren has better than a 50% chance to find the end zone. He’ll be in my TD parlay this week.
Rams vs Ravens
Blake Corum (+400 at DraftKings) B-
Per Todd Fuhrman, the Ravens have allowed more points through five weeks this season than they did during their entire 2000 Super Bowl run. With Cooper Rush likely under center again, the lean is clearly toward the Rams' side — and there’s value in the backup running back market.
Blake Corum had a limited role last Thursday (just a 9% snap share), but he was more involved in prior weeks. That dip in usage has moved his TD price out to +400, after closing at +290 and +310 the previous two weeks.
Even in limited action last week, Corum saw a red-zone target and now has five RZ opportunities on the season with one touchdown. He also has potential close-out value if the Rams take control early, especially against a lifeless Baltimore offense with Rush at QB.
Even Nick Chubb found the end zone and averaged 5.5 YPC against this defense last week. If game script leans Rams, Corum at his longest price in weeks is worth a look.
Seahawks vs Jaguars
Hunter Long ( +400 at DraftKings) B
With Brenton Strange sidelined, Hunter Long stepped into a full-time role, logging 89% of the snaps after Strange exited on Monday night in Week 5. That sets him up nicely heading into a strong matchup.
Seattle has been one of the most generous defenses to tight ends, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position — including 7.0 receptions, 63 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game.
Long already had a red-zone role before the injury, leading all Jaguars TEs with three RZ targets and two touchdowns. He’s already cashed at +2200 and +3000 this season, and now steps in as the clear TE1.
Getting a starting tight end, in a favorable matchup, on a team favored to win — at +300 or longer — is strong value.
Bengals vs Packers
Ja'Marr Chase ( +185 at DraftKings) A-
After a two-touchdown performance last week and a clear upgrade in passing volume at quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase is a strong play at +170 or better. He closed at +165 last week against Detroit, and this week’s setup might be even better.
Joe Flacco gets the start, and the less he’s dialed into the playbook, the more likely he is to lock onto the best receiver on the field. The Bengals’ run game has been ineffective all year, and now they face a Packers defense allowing just 77.5 rushing yards per game — second-best in the league.
Green Bay has also allowed twice as many passing touchdowns (6) as rushing scores (3). With Flacco likely to throw often — just as he did in Cleveland — Chase should be the primary beneficiary. The late-week switch to Flacco also disrupts any defensive prep Green Bay made over the bye.
This might be the longest price you’ll get all season on an elite skill player in a high-volume passing setup.
49ers vs Buccaneers
Tez Johnson (+500 at DraftKings) B-
Baker Mayfield is making a legitimate MVP push and now faces a depleted 49ers roster that just gave up 389 passing yards and three touchdowns to Matthew Stafford on Thursday night. With Bucky Irving likely out again, the Bucs will lean on Baker’s arm to move the ball.
Emeka Egbuka sits at +125 to score but doesn’t offer much value. There’s a more interesting rookie option down the board.
Tez Johnson saw increased usage last week, taking snaps from Sterling Shepard and turning four targets and a carry into 60 total yards. The rushing attempt is especially notable — it shows the coaching staff is scheming ways to get the ball in his hands with Irving out.
Chris Godwin’s production dipped last week, and Johnson is quietly gaining traction in this offense. At +500 to score, he’s a live longshot. If he’s locked into the WR3 role and sees 5–7 touches, this price should be closer to +350.
Titans vs Raiders
Gunnar Helm ( +550 at DraftKings) B
I’m not backing either of these quarterbacks. This game is a long-shot-only spot for me.
There’s not much to like about the Titans' offense, but this is an indoor game and might be their best matchup of the season. TE Gunnar Helm is a solid dart throw at anything longer than +500.
Helm led all Titans tight ends in snap share last week and turned five targets into four catches for 48 yards. He also saw a red-zone target that went for 19 yards — just one yard short of scoring.
I don’t trust Cam Ward, but his ceiling is higher than what Geno Smith is showing in Vegas. With Smith leading the league in interceptions, the Titans could benefit from short fields and extra possessions.
Helm has been just as productive as Chig Okonkwo on similar usage over the last two weeks, yet Okonkwo is priced at +350. Helm at a much longer number is worth the swing.
Lions vs Chiefs
Xavier Worthy ( +145 at DraftKings) A
While the debate rages over whether the Chiefs should be favored on Sunday night, I’m locking in Xavier Worthy to score at a solid +145.
Despite dealing with an ankle issue last week, Worthy still led all Kansas City receivers in snap and route share — and added another carry for 9 yards. He’s the most explosive player on this offense, and with the Chiefs already among the most pass-heavy teams in the league, game script could push volume even higher if they’re forced to chase a red-hot Lions team that’s scored 34+ in four straight.
Worthy should be closer to 100% this week and remains a focal point in this passing attack. I’d play this down to +120.
Bills vs Falcons
Kyle Pitts ( +255 at DraftKings) B+
The Bills showed some cracks last week and now have to go on the road, play indoors, and face a Falcons team coming off a bye with extra time to prepare.
I like Atlanta in this spot, and Kyle Pitts at +220 or better is a solid touchdown look in the dome. He’s caught at least four passes in every game this season and turned his only red-zone target in Week 4 into a touchdown at +310. The price has dipped, but +255 still offers value.
Pitts is seeing close to a 20% target share and is lining up in the slot or out wide on 74% of snaps — usage more like a WR than a traditional tight end. Michael Penix looked more comfortable in Week 4, and there’s reason to be optimistic about this passing game heading into Week 6.
The potential absence of Buffalo's Matt Milano is also a big factor — he’s been one of the better linebackers in the league when it comes to covering tight ends.
Bears vs Commanders
Caleb Williams (+340 at DraftKings) A-
The Bears are coming off a bye, and what we saw in Week 4 was a step forward for Ben Johnson’s offense. They’ve scored 56 points over their last two games, and Caleb Williams is settling into a more functional system.
Through four games, Williams has 24 carries for 110 yards and eight red-zone rushing attempts. In Week 4 alone, he led all quarterbacks with four RZ rushes. Against an inconsistent Washington defense, this touchdown price is a great value — especially with guys like Bo Nix and Drake Maye sitting shorter than +250.
And let’s be honest — few things are better than betting a QB rushing TD in prime time.
According to THE BLITZ, this is one of the highest +EV touchdown props on the slate.
Week 6 anytime touchdown parlay
PIT Jaylen Warren
TB Rachaad White
SEA Zach Charbonnet
TEN Tony Pollard
Jaylen Warren is my favorite running back heading into Week 6, and I already have his +100 TD bet in the account as a single. Rachaad White could be in for another big workload with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving not practicing midweek.
There's a time share in Seattle, and it's Zach Charbonnet getting the majority of the RZ work with seven of the 11 RZ carries over the last two weeks, which he has turned into two scores.
Finally, the Titans have an actual good offensive matchup, and Tony Pollard has eight of the 11 RZ carries this year for two scores.
My weekly NFL TD props column is 26-49 SU this season for +22.04 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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