Week 17 is where NFL TD props get sharp, and pricing mistakes become harder to hide.
Roles are shifting, injuries are forcing new red-zone hierarchies, and motivation is peaking for teams still playing for something. That combination creates value, especially in plus-money touchdown markets.
From bell-cow backs in must-win spots to overlooked pass-catchers stepping into expanded usage, these NFL touchdown props focus on opportunity over name value and price over popularity as the season hits the stretch run.
Read on for my Week 17 NFL picks.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 HOU vs  LAC |
Hampton +135 |
 BAL vs  GB |
Doubs +260 |
 ARI vs  CIN |
Gesicki +250 |
 SEA vs  CAR |
McMillan +195 |
 JAC vs  IND |
Washington +245 |
 NE vs  NYJ |
Hollins +265 |
 PIT vs  CLE |
Warren +220 |
 NO vs  TEN |
Olave +190 |
 TB vs  MIA |
Irving +145 |
 NYG vs  LV |
Mayer +500 |
 PHI vs  BUF |
Goedert +235 |
 CHI vs  SF |
Swift +120 |
 LAR vs  ATL |
Smith +800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Omarion Hampton (+135 at DraftKings) A
The Houston Texans' defense is solid overall, but it has shown cracks near the goal line. The Texans rank 23rd in red-zone scoring defense, allowing touchdowns on 60% of trips, a worse rate than both the Jets and Raiders.
Omarion Hampton should be heavily involved throughout this game and was leaned on in scoring situations last week. He finished with five red-zone carries, turning them into 25 yards and a touchdown.
Kimani Vidal also left last week’s game with a neck injury and was DNP early in the week, which could further concentrate the workload. If Vidal is sidelined or limited, Hampton has a clear path to 20-plus touches with goal-line equity.
At that usage, anything around even money or +105 is worth backing.
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Ravens vs Packers
Romeo Doubs (+260 at DraftKings) B+
Romeo Doubs cashed a +220 ticket last week against Chicago, scoring on a 33-yard strike from Willis. He led the Green Bay Packers in production in that game and remains a central piece of the offense.
Doubs did leave late with a wrist issue, but it appears to be a non-factor for Week 17, as he was absent from the injury report early in the week. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this Baltimore Ravens defense regardless of which quarterback is under center.
With Josh Jacobs banged up, the Packers leaned pass-heavy in the red zone last week, and that same approach could carry over again. The role and usage make sense at this number. With Jordan Love, this is playable down to +190, and with Malik Willis, I’m comfortable backing it into the +220 to +230 range.
Cardinals vs Bengals
Mike Gesicki (+250 at DraftKings) A
The Cincinnati Bengals offense showed signs of life last week, going a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone against Miami.
With Noah Fant inactive, Mike Gesicki stepped into a larger role, finishing with 35 yards on four targets and a touchdown. He was also one of just two Bengals pass-catchers to see a red-zone target in that game.
The matchup sets up well again. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than the Arizona Cardinals since Week 14, and Gesicki remains one of the few Bengals TD prices that’s still reasonable in the market. Cincinnati’s implied team total sits around 31.5 points, which suggests another high-scoring afternoon for Joe Burrow and this offense.
In a game where points are expected to come in bunches, Gesicki’s role near the goal line makes him a worthwhile look at plus money.
Seahawks vs Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan (+195 at DraftKings) A-
The Seattle Seahawks defense looked very beatable in Week 16, and if the Carolina Panthers are forced into a pass-heavy script, the ball is going to Tetairoa McMillan at a massive rate. He’s seen roughly every third target when the Panthers drop back, yet this is the longest his touchdown price has been in four games despite scoring in four of his last five.
There’s really only one reliable option to back in the Panthers’ passing game, and it’s McMillan. Given his role, usage, and consistency in the red zone, he’s a player I’m comfortable backing weekly at +170 or better.
Jaguars vs Colts
Parker Washington (+245 at DraftKings) A+
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence are pushing the pace offensively, and Parker Washington’s touchdown price doesn’t reflect his current role. In an indoor matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that was exposed on Monday night, his number shouldn’t be longer than +210.
Washington is coming off a 10-target performance where he led all Jaguars pass catchers in targets, receptions, yards, and air yards. He also converted two red-zone targets into a 12-yard touchdown.
This is a dangerous receiving trio, but Washington’s usage suggests he can pace the group once again.
Patriots vs Jets
Mack Hollins (+265 at DraftKings) B+
Mack Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real.
Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus.
This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and the New England Patriots' red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game.
With New England capable of hanging a big number on the New York Jets on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.
Steelers vs Browns
Jaylen Warren (+220 at DraftKings) A+
Make this price make sense. Jaylen Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit. Warren continues to handle the majority of the workload, and he owns the red-zone carries.
He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week.
The matchup only strengthens the case. The Cleveland Browns aren’t a dominant offense capable of forcing a negative game script, and James Cook just gashed the Browns for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries.
With plenty on the line for the Pittsburgh Steelers and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.
Saints vs Titans
Chris Olave (+190 at DraftKings) A
Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints’ offense are leaning heavily on the passing game. New Orleans dropped back 56 times last week, and the unit is starting to play with confidence. Chris Olave was at the center of it all, seeing 16 targets and turning them into 10 catches, 140-plus yards, and two touchdowns.
Any clear WR1 facing the Tennessee Titans should be priced closer to +140 to score, so seeing Olave available nearer to +200 feels like a number that won’t last. Even at +150, there’s still value.
The Saints simply can’t run the ball right now, which keeps the offense flowing through the air and makes Olave the focal point again this week.
Buccaneers vs Dolphins
Bucky Irving (+145 at DraftKings) A+
I don’t love backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Bucky Irving’s price in this matchup is hard to ignore with everything on the line for the Buccaneers. Sean Tucker has taken on a more defined goal-line role, but it’s largely been limited to one-yard plunges and three carries per game.
Irving, on the other hand, is handling 20-plus touches in a run-first offense that benefits from the Miami Dolphins having to respect the passing game, leading to softer boxes. That volume gives him a strong scoring profile, especially against a Dolphins defense that allowed six touchdowns on six red-zone trips to Joe Burrow last week.
At this number, Irving has well over a 50% chance to find the end zone.
Giants vs Raiders
Michael Mayer (+500 at DraftKings) A
This number is likely to move once Brock Bowers being shut down is fully reflected in the market, but in an indoor matchup against the New York Giants, there’s value on backing the new TE1 at +300 or better.
Michael Mayer steps into a featured role in an offense that relies heavily on tight ends. He’s a former second-round pick and already had meaningful usage even with Bowers active. Last week against Houston, the Las Vegas Raiders ran two-tight-end sets on more than 50% of its snaps, and Mayer still ran routes on 58% of passing plays.
With Bowers out, that route share could climb toward 90%, putting Mayer in line for five to eight targets. At that usage, this price won’t last long.
Eagles vs Bills
Dallas Goedert (+235 at DraftKings) A-
The Buffalo Bills have been strong against tight ends, but the price here makes this worth a look. Harold Fannin found the end zone against this defense last week on six targets and four catches, showing that scoring opportunities can still exist at the position.
Dallas Goedert doesn’t need to win as a traditional inline tight end to get there. We saw that in Week 15, when both of his touchdowns came on creative usage near the goal line, including a shuffle pass in close. After that two-touchdown game, Goedert was priced around +190 last week.
Goedert scored again, yet his touchdown number has somehow drifted roughly 45 cents longer in a spot where the Philadelphia Eagles may need more from him and the passing game. At +200 or better, Goedert remains a buy in virtually any matchup.
Bears vs 49ers
D'Andre Swift (+120 at DraftKings) B+
The San Francisco 49ers games have been trending over, and the Chicago Bears may need to lean heavily on D’Andre Swift with the receiving corps still dealing with injuries.
Kyle Monangai’s role has started to fade, especially near the goal line. Over the last three games, Swift has logged nine red-zone carries for 46 yards and two touchdowns, while Monangai has six carries for just nine yards and no scores.
Monangai’s usage was buoyed by some extra work in the passing game last week, but Swift remains the starter and the first option in scoring situations. Against a beatable defense that was just gashed for chunk plays by Philip Rivers on Monday night, Swift’s role and price make sense.
Rams vs Falcons
Xavier Smith (+800 at DraftKings) B
With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and can get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch.
He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Los Angeles Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number.
Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.
Week 17 anytime touchdown parlay
Jaylen Warren
Travis Etienne
Ashton Jeanty
Christian McCaffrey
Jaylen Warren is doing the heavy lifting here, and I still don't agree with Kenneth Gainwell being shorter than him despite coming off a 143-yard rushing game with two TDs.
The Cleveland defense is not that good. Travis Etienne and the Jaguars could put up 40+ points in Indy, Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders finally got the run game going and have a layup match-up vs. the G-men, and CMC scores in primetime with an offense on the rise. Four RBs and better than 10 to 1.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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