Week 17 is here, and with the regular season winding down, we’re aiming to land three First Touchdown Scorers on Sunday.
We’ll hit Cincinnati, New York, and Buffalo, hoping to cash in on big odds for our three opening TD scorers.
Here are my best three NFL picks for Week 17.
Best Week 17 first TD scorer props
Tyrone Tracy
Trey McBride
Dawson Knox
TD prop #1: Tyrone Tracy first TD scorer
If you’re not looking forward to the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants facing each other in the tank-a-thon, then what are you doing with your life?
It’s only right that we bet on that game, and when it comes to a first touchdown scorer, we need to take Tyrone Tracy. Tracy has seized the backfield from Devin Singletary and out-carried Singletary four to one in the red zone last week.
The Giants, even with their injuries, are the better of the two teams, and without Maxx Crosby, I’m confident the Giants score first. Tracy has now had 15+ carries in each of the past two weeks and scored two touchdowns.
The Raiders have given up 16 touchdowns to opposing running backs in just 15 games, and Tracy is the most likely player to score first.
TD prop #2: Trey McBride first TD scorer
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored to win this game by a score, but do we really trust them to score first?
A lot of this could come down to who has the first possession because the Bengals’ defense is lousy, ranking second from bottom in DVOA. The Arizona Cardinals' offense isn’t great, but they have an excellent tight end, which is potentially the difference maker.
Trey McBride has scored 10 times this season and is by far the most dangerous player on the Cards’ roster. The Bengals are giving up an average of one touchdown per game to tight ends, and McBride has 31 red zone targets this season, only six fewer than the entire Cardinals’ WR corps combined.
TD prop #3: Dawson Knox first TD scorer
Dawson Knox feels like the smart play to score first in the Buffalo Bills game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.
You’re getting a premium price on Knox to find the end zone as Knox leads the tight end room in red zone targets this season, and ranks second among the team’s pass catchers.
Over the past three games, Knox has seen an uptick in usage and has over two red zone targets per game on average, more than Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid combined.
Then we need to factor in Knox’s contract, which will pay him a $100,000 incentive if he scores another touchdown this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
