Week 16 is where touchdown market opportunities lie. Injuries, shifting roles, and throw-away games are creating some hard-to-price NFL touchdown props across the board.
From goal-line backs stepping into expanded workloads to quarterbacks stealing red-zone equity with their legs, this is the time to lean into usage over name value.
If you’re hunting plus-money TD bets with real paths to the end zone, these are the spots worth attacking this week.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 PHI vs  WAS |
Rodriguez +190 |
 GB vs  CHI |
Swift +140 |
 BUF vs  CLE |
Knox +300 |
 TB vs  CAR |
McMillan +550 |
 MIN vs  NYG |
McCarthy +380 |
 LAC vs  DAL |
Davis +375 |
 NYJ vs  NO |
Hull +350 |
 KC vs  TEN |
Pacheco +300 |
 CIN vs  MIA |
Dulcich +600 |
 ATL vs  ARI |
Sills +400 |
 JAC vs  DEN |
Thomas +240 |
 PIT vs  DET |
Warren +140 |
 LV vs  HOU |
Schultz +240 |
 NE vs  BAL |
Maye +360 |
 SF vs  IND |
Juszczyk +850 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Eagles vs Commanders
Chris Rodriguez (+190 at DraftKings) B-
This might be my favorite touchdown prop in the game, largely because of the price.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed last week but has returned to full practice, and while Jacory Croskey-Merritt may have earned some snaps, Rodriguez is still the most likely candidate to reclaim his red-zone role, which he’s controlled for most of the season.
Since Week 9, no other Commanders running back has more than one carry inside the five-yard line.
With Marcus Mariota priced as short as +250, I’d rather back the goal-line back, especially one averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the red zone. There isn’t much margin for error here, but I’d play this down to +170 or +175.
Packers vs Bears
D'Andre Swift (+140 at DraftKings) B+
D’Andre Swift clearly led the backfield last week, getting the first crack at touches and never giving way to Kyle Monangai.
That role carried over near the goal line as well, with Swift handling two red-zone carries against the Browns in Week 15 and turning them into 23 yards and two touchdowns.
Monangai struggled to get going, while Chicago leaned heavily on Swift’s ability to win on the edge and especially later in the game. He accounted for 10 of the 14 running back opportunities in the second half and appears to be the more trusted option late in games right now.
With uncertainty around the Bears’ pass catchers and questions on the Packers’ side as well, Swift at +115 to +120 stands out as my favorite touchdown prop in this matchup.
Bills vs. Browns
Dawson Knox (+300 at DraftKings) A
Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14.
Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot.
Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week. Knox is also one TD away from a $100k bonus.
Buccaneers vs Panthers
Jalen McMillan (+550 at DraftKings) A
Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards.
That usage could climb this week against a Carolina Panthers defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout.
ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload.
I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.
Vikings vs Giants
JJ McCarthy (+380 at DraftKings) A
The Minnesota Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week.
In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone.
He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the New York Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season.
Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.
Chargers vs Cowboys
Malik Davis (+375 at DraftKings) A
Malik Davis handled one of his larger workloads last week with eight carries and three targets. The production was modest, but he found the end zone after getting two carries inside the 10.
That usage may not have been accidental. Javonte Williams left banged up and also scored his 12th touchdown, which triggered a performance bonus. He’s on a one-year deal and may not be eager to push through an injury with the team sitting at roughly a one-percent playoff chance.
That opens the door for Davis to get an extended look down the stretch. At +375, even a repeat of last week’s volume is attractive. If he continues to see red-zone work and approaches double-digit carries, the price is too good to ignore.
Jets vs Saints
Evan Hull (+350 at DraftKings) B+
Alvin Kamara didn’t practice on Wednesday, and Devin Neal has already been ruled out, leaving Evan Hull and Audric Estime as the likely backfield options in Week 16 against a Jets defense that’s been gashed on the ground.
New York has allowed 171 rushing yards per game over its last three contests, and only Buffalo has surrendered more running back touchdowns this season.
There’s some risk Kamara suits up, but with the team better off losing, there’s little incentive to push him. The expectation is a fairly even split in a run-heavy script between Hull and Estime.
I prefer the longer price on Hull, who profiles better for early-down work, while Estime may be used more in the passing game. If Kamara is ruled out, I’d play this up to +190 or +200.
Chiefs at Titans
Isiah Pacheco (+300 at DraftKings) A+
The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes.
The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.
Bengals vs Dolphins
Greg Dulcich (+600 at DraftKings) B
There’s always appeal in rookie quarterbacks leaning on tight ends with shorter aDOTs. Darren Waller has been strong lately, but he was limited early in the week and his touchdown price has been bet down after a two-score performance last game. That pushes me toward the TE2, Greg Dulcich.
Dulcich has caught all seven of his targets for 111 yards in the three games since the bye, even within a run-heavy, low-aggression offense. Since Week 9, he has 20 targets, six more than Waller due to injuries and one more than WR2 Malik Washington.
That volume ranks around 30th among tight ends over that span. He may not be a household name, but he’s involved, the matchup sets up well, and if this offense opens things up a bit, +450 is a price worth taking.
Falcons vs Cardinals
David Sills (+400 at DraftKings) B-
David Sills is coming off a breakout performance with double-digit targets, 78 yards, and two red-zone looks. The matchup sets up well indoors against a defense that has allowed more than 100 points over its last three games. The main variable is the status of Drake London.
London has missed four straight games and returned to practice this week in a limited capacity, with his coach calling him day to day. With the team already eliminated, there’s little incentive to rush him back.
Even if London plays, Sills should still maintain a role, especially with Kirk Cousins coming off a 373-yard, three-touchdown outing. There’s risk baked in, but the price reflects it. If London is ruled out, this projects closer to +250, and if he plays, +350 still looks like a fair number.
Jaguars vs Broncos
Brian Thomas (+240 at DraftKings) A
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and Brian Thomas looks back to his 2025 form. He found the end zone last week and led the team in red-zone usage with three targets, including two inside the 10.
It's a great price, and with Jakobi Meyers likely drawing defensive attention and the market still lagging on Thomas, Week 16 sets up as a strong buy spot. For a receiver who scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, +200 or better is a number worth taking.
Steelers vs. Lions
Jaylen Warren (+140 at DraftKings) B+
Jaylen Warren was dealing with an illness on Monday night and likely gave up some volume because of it. Kenneth Gainwell finished with 20 touches to Warren’s 15 and made more of his opportunities. Even so, it was still Warren who handled all three running back carries in the red zone.
With an extra week to recover, Warren should be in a better spot physically in Week 16 and is positioned to keep that red-zone role in a game carrying the highest total on the board at 52. I wouldn’t play this any lower than +115 to +120.
Raiders vs Texans
Dalton Schultz (+240 at DraftKings) A
There’s plenty of uncertainty in the Houston backfield, but this sets up as a game the Texans could control from start to finish. In the passing game, the volume is fairly concentrated, with Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz standing out as the primary options. Schultz led the team with nine targets last week and turned them into an 8/76/1 line.
Since C.J. Stroud’s return, Schultz has seen 21 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown, along with three looks from inside the five-yard line. That kind of usage makes the price appealing in this matchup, and I’d play it up to +190.
Patriots at Ravens
Drake Maye ( +360 at DraftKings) B+
Who says no to a primetime quarterback rushing touchdown from an MVP candidate? The New England QB is coming off a four-carry, 43-yard rushing effort and scored twice on runs from seven and eight yards out. He goes from facing Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson, so the pace and adrenaline should remain high on Sunday night.
Over the last three games, Maye has three red-zone carries and has turned two of them into touchdowns. That matches Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage and is just one fewer carry than TreVeyon Henderson. Coming off a two-TD game, his +360 price is a four-week high and well above his +260 average across that stretch, making it a strong buy.
49ers vs Colts
Kyle Juszczyk (+850 at DraftKings) B-
Once a season, touchdown bettors have to take a swing on 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and this might be the spot. The offense is back to full strength, Brock Purdy looked refreshed coming out of the bye, and Juszczyk is another week removed from a rib injury.
He logged a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and hasn’t scored since Week 3, which helps keep the price in check. Juszczyk remains a strong pass-catching option who can still win on a wheel route, and he has seven games with double-digit receiving yards this season.
Indoors against an overrated defense that may not account for the fullback near the goal line, this sets up as a worthwhile long-shot look. A half-unit.
Week 16 anytime touchdown parlay
Rico Dowdle TD
Khalil Skakir TD
Marquise Brown TD
This might look like a random three-leg touchdown parlay, but there’s a clear angle behind it. Rico Dowdle has seven touchdowns on the season and earns a $250K bonus with one more, while drawing a defense that’s been hemorrhaging rushing scores.
Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir sits at four TDs and triggers a $150K incentive with his next, facing a lifeless Cleveland team that could allow extra production in garbage time.
Marquise Brown rounds it out, sitting one touchdown shy of a $750K bonus in a soft matchup against Tennessee, with Kansas City having little at stake.
My weekly NFL TD props column is +22 units for the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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