It’s business time in the NFL and with so much on the line we’re looking at picking three First Touchdown scorers from the games. We’re balancing value and likelihood to come up with three winners.
Here are my best three NFL picks and weekly TD props picks:
Best Week 16 first TD scorer props
TD prop #1: Nico Collins first TD scorer
The largest spread on Sunday has the Las Vegas Raiders facing the Texans and with Houston in with a shot for the playoffs, it’s only going to end one way.
With that in mind we’ve got to take a Texans players to score. With the Raiders allowing 16 TDs to WRs and 16 TDs to running backs this season, so it’s a pick’em position wise.
With Woody Marks and Nick Chubb both questionable, we’re taking Nico Collins. He’s fresh from a big two-touchdown performance against the Cardinals last week and he’s still the most dangerous player on the Texans offense.
He leads them in red zone targets and has had four RZ targets across the past three games.
TD prop #2: Evan Hull first TD scorer
The New York Jets have given up a staggering 23 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. They’re terrible against the run and also very susceptible to RBs being used in the passing game too.
With the New Orleans Saints having question marks around who’ll replace Devin Neal, it opens up the chance of finding real value by picking one of the two running backs.
Audric Estime has been playing more snaps than Evan Hull after Neal’s first half injury last time out, but it was Hull who handled more carries.
That tells us something and with Hull at bigger odds than Estime we’re looking at getting some big value on him to score first.
TD prop #3: Darren Waller first TD scorer
Quinn Ewers might be quarterbacking the Miami Dolphins but we’re still taking a player on their offense to score first.
Mike McDaniel will still find ways to get the chains moving for Miami and when they’re in the red zone you can’t look any further than Darren Waller.
The tight end has scored six touchdowns this season but what makes that so impressive is that he’s only played seven games. He’s also third amongst Dolphins pass catchers in red zone targets despite playing half a season.
Add that to the fact the Cincinnati Bengals have given up 15 touchdowns to tight ends and Waller offers real value.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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