Wisconsin vs Minnesota Picks and Predictions: Minny's Offense Good Enough to Keep Things Tight

With teams still tussling for position at the top of the Big Ten West, two of them go head-to-head this weekend. Our Wisconsin vs. Minnesota preview suggests the spread may be too high for a game that might stay under 40 points. Read more below.

Jason Radowitz - Contributor at Covers.com
Nov 25, 2021 • 09:42 ET • 5 min read
Tanner Morgan Minnesota Golden Gophers college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Wisconsin Badgers are on a seven-game winning streak but are still fighting for the No. 1 spot in the Big Ten West. 

The Wisconsin Badgers are 6-2 in division play and already have a win against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Therefore, Wisconsin knows if they leave Minnesota with a win, they’ll clinch their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Meanwhile, if Minnesota wins this game, they’ll be tied with Minnesota and potentially Iowa for the Big Ten West. However, Minnesota already lost to Iowa earlier this season, 27-22. 

With so much chaos in the Big Ten West, here are our picks and predictions for the game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Minnesota Gophers.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Wisconsin Badgers opened as a 6.5-point favorite and have now been bet up to a 7-point favorite at most outlets. 

Meanwhile, the total opened at 39 and has stayed steady around that number at most sportsbooks. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota predictions

Predictions made on 11/24/2021 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Wisconsin vs Minnesota game info

Location: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET

Wisconsin vs Minnesota betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Wisconsin: Jackson Acker RB (Questionable), Spencer Lytle LB (Questionable), Marty Strey LB (Questionable).
Minnesota: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Minnesota.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Wisconsin Badgers had been destroying competition until last week. The Badgers finally ran into some trouble but manage to pull out a home win against Nebraska, 35-28. 

Wisconsin has one of the better defenses in the nation, allowing just 237.7 total yards per game this season and just 64.3 yards per game coming on the ground. 

The Badgers’ defense is strong on all levels. Their run defense and pass rush has been fantastic while the coverage unit has also held up extraordinarily well. 

Questions remain about the Badgers’ offense. The Badgers average under 400 yards per game but manage to score 27 points per game behind quarterback Graham Mertz, who has only thrown for nine touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season. 

Wisconsin isn’t dangerous in the air, but it’s got some real playmakers in the run game including Braelon Allen who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns in his freshman season, including 228 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Nebraska.

On the flip side, Minnesota has lost their top three running backs this season. But the Gophers have overcome adversity with seven wins on the season along with another bowl game appearance. 

The Gophers aren’t nearly as dominant as the Badgers on defense, but they’ve still held opponents to just 18.7 points per game. The offense for Minnesota is slightly better, despite only averaging 368.1 yards per game with 26.4 points per game. 

The offensive line, especially in the passing game, has exceeded expectations this year, but they’ll face a huge test in Wisconsin’s defensive line.

If the Gophers can protect quarterback Tanner Morgan and let him get comfortable in the pocket, the Gophers can stick around in this game. The weakest link for the Wisconsin offense is the secondary, although the secondary isn’t really a weak link. 

I’ll grab the points with Minnesota here.

Prediction: Minnesota +7 (-110)

The Badgers and Gophers love to run the football. Minnesota’s rushing defense has allowed just 103.6 yards per game while Wisconsin has allowed just 64.3 rushing yards per game. 

Once the run game stops working, by the second half, you might get a couple of shots down the field from Mertz and Morgan, but overall, the clock is going to tick for most of the game with both teams relying on their run game. 

And despite each team running the football, neither will have much success doing it in this game and therefore, I like this game to go Under the short total.

Prediction: Under 39 (-110)

I’m rolling with Minnesota here. The Gophers match up well against Wisconsin and in a game where neither team is expected to reach beyond 20 points, there’s some real value on Minnesota. 

It’s never easy to play in Minnesota in the first place. The fans are electric when their team is good. 

The reality is, Minnesota has the better offense while Wisconsin has the better defense. That’s going to be an exciting matchup. But also, the Gophers have been solid against the run and should be able to get stops against Wisconsin along with a turnover or two to keep this game tight. 

Pick: Minnesota +7 (-110)

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Wisconsin vs. Minnesota picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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