Oregon State vs Oregon Picks and Predictions: Ducks Roasted to Close Season

Lots can change in a week as Oregon learned, as its CFP hopes were flushed down the drain. The Ducks could see a Pac-12 Championship game spot get lost, too, if they can't manage to beat Oregon State. That concern is real, as our picks explain.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Nov 27, 2021 • 10:56 ET • 5 min read
B.J. Baylor Oregon State Beavers college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Well, that was fast. Just a week ago, Oregon appeared primed for a Playoff spot if it won out through the schedule. One lopsided loss to Utah later and the Ducks are in a much different position.

The Pac-12 championship is still alive, but the Ducks will need to beat the Beavers in a heated rivalry game to earn a rematch with the Utes. Revenge will be on Oregon’s mind after suffering a 41-38 defeat in Corvallis last year.

We’ve got you covered with picks and predictions for the Oregon State Beavers vs. the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, November 27.

Oregon State vs Oregon odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line has remained steady since the opener across most books at Oregon -7. The total has dropped from 62.5 to 61.5, where it resides at the time of this writing. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Oregon State vs Oregon predictions

Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oregon State vs Oregon game info

Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Oregon State vs Oregon betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Oregon State: Deshaun Fenwick RB (Doubtful), Jake Levengood OL (Questionable), Cody Anderson LB (Questionable), Sione Lolohea DL (Questionable), Isaac Hodgins DL (Out).
Oregon: CJ Verdell RB (Out), Sean Dollars RB (Questionable), Jaylon Redd WR (Out), Johnny Johnson III WR (Out), D.J. Johnson TE (Questionable), Patrick Herbert TE (Out), Cam McCormick TE (Out), Ryan Walk OL (Out), Bram Walden OL (Out), Bennett Williams S (Out), Steve Stephens IV S (Questionable), Verone McKinley III S (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs Oregon. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Oregon.

Oregon State vs Oregon picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Some will point to this as a prime motivation spot for the Ducks. After all, they were publicly embarrassed by Utah a week ago and have been eliminated from the playoff picture. What better way to bounce back than with a win over a rival? Plus, they’ll be seeking revenge after last year’s loss in Corvallis.

We won’t be paying those motivation edges as much mind as the Ducks’ record against the spread in situations like this one. The Ducks have been futile at covering as a favorite, going just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 such games. They haven’t come through in front of their home crowd at Autzen, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.

Mario Cristobal has done wonderful things for this program. That being said, his conservative style of play is not conducive to covering point spreads as a favorite. 

The Beavers are a very well-coached team under Jonathan Smith. There’s a reason his name is being brought up in rumors for coaching vacancies at bigger programs. They’ve relished the role of road underdog, going an outstanding 10-1 ATS in their last 11 such games. They look to win along the line of scrimmage and establish the running game with B.J. Baylor (1,120 yards, 12 TDs), a style of play conducive for keeping games close.

Defense was the primary concern for the Beavers in the early parts of the season, but they’ve shown improvements since making some changes along with the defensive coaching staff. They held Stanford to 14 points and Arizona State to 10 points in their two most recent games, a testament that there’s been some improvement.

Prediction: Oregon State +7 (-110)

The biggest weakness of this Beavers defense is a secondary ranked 86th in the country, allowing 238 yards per game. The Ducks are not positioned to best exploit this weakness given the struggles of quarterback Anthony Brown. Brown’s limitations have been on full display lately, completing 50 percent or less of his passes in two of the last three games. The Ducks are averaging 39 rushing attempts to only 29 pass attempts per game, a testament that they look to keep the ball on the ground and play conservatively. 

The Beavers also like to keep the ball on the ground, averaging 40 rushing attempts to only 25 passing attempts. The strength of the Ducks’ defense lies in limiting opposing rushing offenses, where they rank 28th in the country with only 127.7 yards per game allowed on the ground.

Both teams will run plenty, which will keep the clock churning. This should play toward the Under.

Prediction: Under 61.5 (-110)

Until the Ducks prove to consistently cover spreads as a favorite, we’ll be playing against them in situations like this one. They’re a good team but nothing more, and the Beavers will be fired up once again for a chance to knock off their more vaunted rival.

We see some value with the road underdog. The Beavers have cashed ten of the last 11 times in this role, and we’ll be betting on that trend to continue.

Pick: Oregon State +7 (-110)

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Oregon State vs. Oregon picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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