Will Year 2 of the Rich Rodriguez Era in Morgantown produce better results? Fans and Over bettors certainly hope so.
Expectations remain modest for a Big 12 program in transition, as the Mountaineers look to improve on their lowest regular-season win total in 12 years. Nationally ranked in 2023, West Virginia has fallen on hard times of late, and Covers' experts aren't expecting a major leap forward in 2026.
Here's a look at the recent history of West Virginia win totals, along with predictions on whether the Mountaineers will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 5.5:
West Virginia 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 5.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 5.5 | ⚪ |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 5.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
West Virginia only returns three starters but I think they’ll be much improved in year two under Rich Rodriguez. I’ve upgraded their power rating 6.5 points. They do have to play at TCU, at Texas Tech and at Utah but every other game is winnable.
Rob Paul
The Rich Rodriguez retread hire isn’t the worst in the Big 12, but West Virginia is going to have a hard time reaching bowl eligibility in his second season back in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have one of the hardest schedules in the country - No. 8 in SOS (.617) - and while they did add solid talent in the transfer portal, their class is ranked outside the top 50.
For West Virginia to win 6+ games, it needs Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook to be Steve Slaton. If Cook isn’t among the best running backs in the country, there will be too much on the shoulders of whoever starts at QB between Scotty Fox Jr. and Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr. And even adding Kamari Wilson (Memphis) and Zeke Durham-Campbell (Coastal Carolina) won’t change this defense much.
Colby Marchio
After losing Nicco Marchiol (no, not my cousin) to Northwestern, the Mountaineers will now have a competition between Michael Hawkins Jr., Max Brown, and Scotty Fox for the starting quarterback job.
They brought in Cam Cook, who led the country in rushing last season at Jacksonville State. Cook should provide a major boost and bring some much-needed depth to the West Virginia offense. However, the offensive line took a major hit this offseason, and I am just not a fan of this unit heading into 2026. The same can be said for the defense, which lost a lot of key pieces as well.
Cook is the highlight of this team, but he cannot carry them to a bowl game by himself.
West Virginia win totals, odds and results (2006-25)
(West Virginia historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | +115 | -140 | 4 | Under |
| 2024 | 6.5 | -125 | +105 | 6 | Under |
| 2023 | 4.5 | -150 | +125 | 8 | Over |
| 2022 | 5.5 | -120 | +100 | 5 | Under |
| 2021 | 6.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2019 | 5 | +120 | -140 | 5 | Push |
| 2018 | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 8 | N/A* |
| 2017 | 6.5 | -150 | +130 | 7 | Over |
| 2016 | 7 | -135 | +115 | 10 | Over |
| 2015 | 7.5 | +115 | -135 | 7 | Under |
| 2013 | 6 | -115 | -115 | 4 | Under |
| 2012 | 8.5 | -115 | -115 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 9 | -105 | -125 | 9 | Push |
| 2010 | 9 | -115 | -115 | 9 | Push |
| 2009 | 8.5 | -110 | -120 | 9 | Over |
| 2008 | 10 | - | - | 8 | Under |
| 2006 | 10 | -110 | -110 | 10 | Push |
*Win total future voided due to canceled game Sept. 15 as a result of Hurricane Florence.
🔑 Key takeaways
- An unreliable Over option: It's quite difficult to find an FBS program that has disappointed Over bettors more than the Mountaineers, who have just four conversions across 16 graded seasons (and one voided market). That's among the worst Over rates in the country over that span.
- What is this, soccer?: West Virginia serves as a cautionary tale against wagering on flat win totals. Of the seven times the Mountaineers have entered the season with a round win total (no .5s here), they have pushed a staggering four times – including back-to-back in 2010-11. What are the odds?
How West Virginia win totals are priced
Those looking for good value on West Virginia have a few options here depending on how optimistic they are about the Mountaineers' 2026 schedule.
The O5.5 play isn't very appealing at -160, but if you like WV to end up with 7+ wins, you can take a step up to the O6.5 at +150. Conversely, if you're thinking that the Mountaineers will wind up at five or fewer victories, the U5.5 looks strong at +134.
The Exact Wins market is even more lucrative if you have a number you like. Five wins pays at +370, while six victories is worth +450.
Despite their SU struggles, the Mountaineers are 14-4-2 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2019 season.
West Virginia win total FAQs
Will West Virginia make the CFP?
It'll be a tough slog for the Mountaineers to make the College Football Playoff; they're listed at +4000 to do the improbable.
What is West Virginia's projected win total?
WV's win total sits at 5.5 for the 2026 season, with the Over at -160 and the Under at +134.
Who is West Virginia's starting QB?
Michael Hawkins Jr. sits atop the Mountaineer depth chart; he has just 950 yards and six TD passes in parts of two seasons in a backup role at Oklahoma.
What is the most notable West Virginia win total trend?
Since 2010, West Virginia has as many Pushes on its season win total (three) as Over conversions.
What's the best bet for West Virginia this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER is the slightly more supported option (though Brad Powers likes the Over).
