Texas vs Washington Player Props for Sugar Bowl: Sanders Rises From Injury Obscurity

Prop bet #1: Baxter bound for six

The Texas Longhorns found a star at the running back position in Jonathon Brooks, who took off for 1,425 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns before being lost for the season with a torn ACL after 11 games. He’s listed as ESPN’s No. 1 running back in the Class of 2024 and is sure to hear his name called early in the NFL Draft if he does indeed declare. 

Who has stepped up in his stead? Sarkisian has recruited well, and that rings true at the skill positions, where five-star true freshman CJ Baxter has emerged as a go-to option in the backfield. Running back coach Tashard Choice has relied upon the No. 1 running back in the 2023 recruiting class and we should see a healthy dose of the young star on New Year’s Day’s big stage. 

Baxter ran 18 times for 61 yards in relief of Brooks against TCU and was featured again the next week with 20 carries for 117 yards and five receptions for 13 yards against Iowa State. He suffered a hip pointer in a blowout win against Texas Tech in the regular season finale but was able to return to find the end zone while touching the ball 16 times against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship. 

Baxter is primed for success in this matchup against a soft Washington Huskies front that ranks just 130th in EPA per rush and 127th in rushing success rate. Those are brutal numbers for any team, let alone one competing in the playoffs. The defensive line has been especially vulnerable, checking in at 132nd in line yards and 128th in both stuff rate and front-seven havoc. 

There are several Baxter props that I like on Monday — his rushing yardage prop is set at 81.5 at FanDuel, and I’ll likely be all over his receiving yardage prop once that’s released. He’s -112 at FanDuel to score a touchdown and +470 to score twice, both of which look good.

I’ll use his anytime touchdown prop of -112 as the best bet for this article. I’m sure that this line will move in one direction only, and I’d be fine playing it up to -145. If it gets too wide, I’d rather play one of his yardage props as he sets up well for success on the ground and is utilized a fair amount in the passing game. For the more adventurous bettors, consider him to score twice. 

CJ Baxter Prop: Anytime TD (-112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: McMillans rule 

The McMillan family already made its presence felt during bowl season when Arizona Wildcats wide receiver and future early-round NFL Draft selection Tetairoa McMillan 10 receptions and 160 yards in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Now, it’s his brother’s turn. 

Jalen McMillan has had a mightily frustrating season rifled with injury. After bursting out with 79 receptions for 1,098 yards and nine scores a year ago, he was effectively limited to just five games in 2023 in which he saw meaningful snaps. He appeared in several games from Week 7 to Week 12 but never made his way into the box score as he continually tried to retake the field to play through a knee injury but was forced back to the sideline every time. 

He was finally able to make an impact in the regular season finale, catching five passes for 26 yards in the Apple Cup. He waited to truly make his mark the next week, going wild for 131 yards on nine receptions in a huge win over the Oregon Ducks. That’s enough to make me believe that he’s healthy enough to play a huge part in the Sugar Bowl. He stepped up when his team needed him most, and we’ve seen him produce at a terrific pace in the past, so we know what to expect going forward.

By now the secret is out that the weakness of this Longhorns team is in the secondary. They’re surrendering 240.8 passing yards per game while ranking 55th in EPA per pass and 93rd in passing explosiveness. 

In case you haven’t heard, the Washington Huskies possess a dangerous enough passing attack to make this secondary pay. Michael Penix Jr. leads an offense averaging 343.8 yards per game through the air. They pass a ton (eighth in pass rate) and do so extremely well, checking in at 12th in EPA per pass and sixth in passing success rate. Let me remind you that Kalen DeBoer’s squad managed this despite missing a 1,000-yard receiver in the lineup for the majority of the season. 

Well, he’s back now, and he should be a huge part of the game plan just as he was against Oregon. The Longhorns are a brick wall up font, holding opponents to just 80.8 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush while ranking fifth in EPA per rush, seventh in rushing success rate, and sixth in rushing explosiveness — elite numbers by all accounts. 

The Huskies should take to the air early and often and McMillan’s yardage prop is weighed down since he’s been out of the lineup for much of the year. He averaged 87 receiving yards per game across his last two seasons and therefore we’re getting a discount with his receiving yardage prop set in the mid-70s. I’ll take him to eclipse 80 receiving yards at plus money. He’s listed at +145 to score a touchdown, which is great value and the odds are sure to only head in one direction before kick.

Jalen McMillan prop: 80+ receiving yards (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Large bucket of Colonel Sanders’ finest

It's time to buy low on another elite talent who has been battling injury for much of the season and is, therefore, receiving an artificially decreased yardage prop despite entering the Sugar Bowl the healthiest he’s been all season. This time up, it’s Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, whose receiving yardage prop is set at 41.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Sanders is a freak athlete and one of the best tight ends in the country. He made that abundantly clear a season ago when he emerged with 54 receptions for 613 yards and five touchdowns. 

He followed that up with 39 receptions for 607 yards and two scores this year, although those numbers don’t tell the full story. He was limited with an ankle injury for a large part of Texas’ campaign and yet still managed 46.7 receiving yards per game, which is notably a few yards above where his prop resides. 

This isn’t exactly what one would qualify as a difficult matchup. Washington’s defense is far and away the weakest link in this game from a metrics perspective, checking in at 70th in EPA per play and 97th in success rate. 

The Huskies notably faced a lack of impact tight ends this season, and Sanders is far and away the best talent at the position that this staff will have seen all season. Arizona’s Tanner McLachlan caught six passes for 51 yards against Washington, while Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson caught five passes for 50 yards in the first matchup and found the end zone twice in the second. The only other tight end of note that the Huskies faced this season, in my opinion, is Arizona State’s Jalin Conyers, who had 41 of the Sun Devils’ measly 196 receiving yards. 

Texas doesn’t spread the ball around a ton, as five players have 50 or more targets on the season — Xavier Worthy (113), Adonai Mitchell (78), Sanders (59), and Jordan Whittington (50). Sanders seems to be a little bit of a forgotten man in this offense, but my perception of him hasn’t changed a bit. He’s an elite college tight end who was slowed a bit by injury this year but has produced massive games in big matchups twice this season, catching five passes for 114 yards against Alabama and eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown in the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma State. 

Ja’Tavion Sanders prop: Over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)