History is on the line for the Vanderbilt Commodores when they visit the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend.
Vandy will not only be attempting to win 10 games for the first time in program history, but also to move one step closer to its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.
I’ve built an SGP for what should be a thrilling back-and-forth battle with plenty of touchdowns.
And for even more college football picks, for this SEC clash, check out my Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee predictions.
Our best Vanderbilt vs Tennessee SGP for Week 14
Led by QB Diego Pavia, the Vanderbilt Commodores have one of the best offenses in the country. The Commodores enter this game ranked second in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate, and they should face very little resistance on the ground in this one.
The Tennessee Volunteers have surrendered at least 31 points in six of its seven SEC games this season, in large part to being gashed by the run.
The Vols rank 121st in the country in defensive success rate vs. the rush. That has resulted in them giving up lots of long scoring drives. They rank 77th in quality drive rate and 100th in points per quality drive.
Tennessee's vibes have been off ever since its early-season collapse against Georgia. Pavia and RB Sederick Alexander will lead the way for the Commodores on the ground here, controlling the tempo of the game, showing their the more physical and battle-tested team, earning the upset win for the Commodores.
Now, this game has a total of 65.5. There are going to be a lot of touchdowns.
For Vanderbilt, the most productive guy outside of Pavia has been Alexander. The Commodores' do-it-all running back has scored 12 touchdowns this season, eight rushing and four receiving out of the backfield.
Vandy does a great job of getting him the ball in space to let his skills take over. I don’t expect that to change in this matchup against Tennessee.
Now, Tennessee should have some success pushing the ball through the air against this Commodores pass defense that ranks 86th in success rate on dropbacks. That could mean a big day for Tennessee’s top receiver, Chris Brazzell II.
Brazzell has been Aguilar's top target this season, catching 56 balls for 926 yards and eight scores.
Take both Alexander and Brazzell to find the end zone on Saturday.
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