It’s the Third Saturday in October, which means it's time for the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers to do battle once again.
Bama has rebounded nicely from its early-season stumble against Florida State, with Ty Simpson looking more and more like a legit Heisman contender with each passing week, and my Tennessee vs. Alabama predictions explain why it will be another productive week for Simpson and the Tide offense.
Check out my college football picks, including a must bet SGP, for this SEC rivalry game set to kick off in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, October 18.
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Tennessee vs Alabama prediction
Tennessee vs Alabama best bet: Alabama team total Over 34.5 (-104)
Alabama has done its best to make everyone forget about its embarrassing season-opening loss to Florida State.
The Crimson Tide have now won five games in a row, following last week’s win over Missouri, and Ty Simpson looks more and more like a legit Heisman candidate every time he takes the field.
Simpson has thrown for 1,678 yards while completing more than 70% of his passes at more than 10 yards per attempt, with 16 of those passes going for touchdowns and just one interception.
As a result, Alabama ranks third in EPA per play and leads the nation in EPA per dropback, and I’m not sure if Tennessee is equipped to slow the Tide down.
Tennessee also enters this game at 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Georgia in overtime. A game the Vols probably should have won. But the underlying numbers are a little troubling.
Tennessee can’t stop anyone. The Vols rank 75th in defensive success rate and have surrendered at least 31 points in all three of their SEC games, and the other conference games they played were against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Hell, they allowed UAB with dead man walking head coach Trent Dilfer to put up 24 points.
Gunnar Stockton and Taylen Green threw it all over the yard against Tennessee, and now they have to try to slow down Simpson and his terrific trio of wideouts in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton. In Tuscaloosa?
I don’t see that happening. Alabama to go Over its team total in this game is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Tennessee vs Alabama same-game parlay
Giving up points won’t be Tennessee’s only problem in this game. The Vols offense is predicated on QB Joey Aguilar pushing the football down the field through the air, and Alabama has really clamped down on defense lately.
The Tide have allowed just 18.3 points per game over the last four games and now rank fourth in the country in EPA per dropback and 15th in EPA per rush. Bama scoring and Tennessee sputtering means the Tide cover the spread as well.
Now, because I expect Tennessee to be trailing for much of this matchup, Joey Aguilar should be forced to throw here. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his six games this season, including four in the loss to Georgia. Round this SGP out with Aguilar to go Over 1.5 TD passes.
Tennessee vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
- Alabama -8.5
- Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 TD passes (+453)
Our deep-ball SGP: Alabama rolls on offense
Talk about a lotto ticket. Kalen DeBoer looks committed to getting his star tackle a touchdown this season, and why not on the Third Saturday of October vs. a Tennessee defense that has been gashed by the run.
Tennessee vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
- Alabama -8.5
- Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 TD passes
- Kadyn Proctor TD
Tennessee vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Tennessee +8.5 | Alabama -8.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +245 | Alabama -300
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Tennessee vs Alabama trend to know
Alabama has covered the Spread in their last 6 games at home for +6.00 Units and a 91% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Alabama.
How to watch Tennessee vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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