It’s the Third Saturday in October, which means the Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers are set to renew their storied rivalry once again.
Alabama has bounced back strong from its early loss to Florida State, and Ty Simpson is steadily emerging as a true Heisman contender. My Tennessee vs. Alabama predictions break down why this should be another big week for Simpson and the Crimson Tide offense.
Check out my college football picks, including a must bet SGP, for this SEC rivalry game set to kick off in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, October 18.
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Tennessee vs Alabama prediction
Tennessee vs Alabama best bet: Alabama team total Over 34.5 (-104)
Alabama has done its best to make everyone forget about its embarrassing season-opening loss to Florida State.
The Crimson Tide have now won five games in a row, following last week’s win over Missouri, and Ty Simpson looks more and more like a legit Heisman candidate every time he takes the field.
Simpson has thrown for 1,678 yards while completing more than 70% of his passes at more than 10 yards per attempt, with 16 of those passes going for touchdowns and just one interception.
As a result, Alabama ranks third in EPA per play and leads the nation in EPA per dropback, and I’m not sure if Tennessee is equipped to slow the Tide down.
Tennessee also enters this game at 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Georgia in overtime. A game the Vols probably should have won. But the underlying numbers are a little troubling.
Tennessee can’t stop anyone. The Vols rank 75th in defensive success rate and have surrendered at least 31 points in all three of their SEC games, and the other conference games they played were against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Hell, they allowed UAB with dead man walking head coach Trent Dilfer to put up 24 points.
Gunnar Stockton and Taylen Green threw it all over the yard against Tennessee, and now they have to try to slow down Simpson and his terrific trio of wideouts in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton. In Tuscaloosa?
I don’t see that happening. Alabama to go Over its team total in this game is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Tennessee vs Alabama same-game parlay
Giving up points won’t be Tennessee’s only problem in this game. The Vols offense is predicated on QB Joey Aguilar pushing the football down the field through the air, and Alabama has really clamped down on defense lately.
The Tide have allowed just 18.3 points per game over the last four games and now rank fourth in the country in EPA per dropback and 15th in EPA per rush. Bama scoring and Tennessee sputtering means the Tide cover the spread as well.
Now, because I expect Tennessee to be trailing for much of this matchup, Joey Aguilar should be forced to throw here. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his six games this season, including four in the loss to Georgia. Round this SGP out with Aguilar to go Over 1.5 TD passes.
Tennessee vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
- Alabama -8.5
- Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 TD passes (+453)
Our deep-ball SGP: Alabama rolls on offense
Talk about a lotto ticket. Kalen DeBoer looks committed to getting his star tackle a touchdown this season, and why not on the Third Saturday of October vs. a Tennessee defense that has been gashed by the run.
Tennessee vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama Team Total Over 34.5
- Alabama -8.5
- Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 TD passes
- Kadyn Proctor TD
Tennessee vs Alabama game predictions
Tennessee vs Alabama moneyline prediction
At a glance, these teams look close with both sporting 5-1 records. But that couldn't be farther from the truth. With Ty Simpson, Alabama's offense is far more efficient, and the defense is a step above Tennessee's. It will be Alabama who lights up cigars at the end of this one.
Tennessee vs Alabama spread prediction
The difference can be seen in the spread. But I'm not even sure it's properly showing the edge Alabama has in this matchup. Ty Simpson won't be stopped, and with Jam Miller expected back, the Crimson Tide will have a balanced attack. I see the Tide winning this one at home by double digits.
Tennessee vs Alabama Over/Under prediction
I think this is a bit of an elevated total due to the points Tennessee has put up against lesser opponents. I'm not sure that will be the case against Alabama and would lean to the Under.
Tennessee vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Tennessee +8.5 | Alabama -8.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +245 | Alabama -300
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Tennessee vs Alabama trend to know
Alabama has covered the Spread in their last 6 games at home for +6.00 Units and a 91% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Alabama.
How to watch Tennessee vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Tennessee vs Alabama latest injuries
Tennessee vs Alabama weather
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