The TCU Horned Frogs aim to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive as they head to Manhattan, KS, to face a struggling Kansas State Wildcats squad.
Despite their 2-4 record, the Wildcats seem snakebitten this season — still managing a +4 overall point differential through six games.
All things considered, my TCU vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks side with the Under on Saturday, October 11.
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TCU vs Kansas State prediction
TCU vs Kansas State best bet: Under 55.5 (-110)
While each of these two teams averages more than 27.5 points per game, the matchup mixed with the likelihood of heavy winds provides a great play on the Under here. The Kansas State Wildcats' biggest weakness on defense is in the run game, but TCU is very pass-heavy.
The Horned Frogs rank 105th in the country in rushing at 125.6 yards per game. They also only average 3.9 yards per carry. Obviously, this includes sacks as negative rushing yards, but it is still a bad number if they plan on taking advantage of the biggest weakness for Kansas State.
The Wildcats average 27.5 points per game, but have been held to 21, 21, and 17 points by Iowa State, Army, and Arizona. They also only rank 77th in the country in total yardage gained. The Horned Frogs have yet to give up more than 27 points in a game this season.
The wind is expected to be consistently in the double digits throughout the game with gusts up to 25 mph. If the game is going to be dependent on short passes and the run game, then the defenses will be at their best. This total is too high given all these factors.
TCU vs Kansas State same-game parlay
To add to the total, I am going to add a touchdown scorer from the TCU backfield with Kevorian Barnes. I will also take Avery Johnson to stay under two passing touchdowns, as this will be a run-heavy game.
TCU vs Kansas State SGP
- Under 55.5
- Kevorian Barnes anytime TD
- Avery Johnson Under 1.5 passing TDs
Our deep-ball SGP: Rushing to the end zone
While we are on Johnson to have less than two passing touchdowns, adding him to get a rushing touchdown will boost our odds, and he has three on the season.
TCU vs Kansas State SGP
- Under 55.5
- Kevorian Barnes anytime TD
- Avery Johnson Under 1.5 passing TDs
- Avery Johnson anytime TD
TCU vs Kansas State game predictions
TCU vs Kansas State moneyline prediction
The Horned Frogs will win this game, but it will be close throughout and likely end with a late FG or TD that gives them the win.
TCU vs Kansas State spread prediction
If this spread was to go above 3, I would take the Wildcats, but TCU can win this game by three and still cover here at this number.
TCU vs Kansas State Over/Under prediction
The total has moved from 56.5 to 55.5 with much of the sharp money on the Under.
TCU vs Kansas State odds
- Spread: TCU +1 | Kansas State -1
- Moneyline: TCU +107 | Kansas State -109
- Over/Under: Over 57.5| Under 57.5
TCU vs Kansas State trend to know
The Under has hit in eight of the last nine matchups between these two teams. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Kansas State.
How to watch TCU vs Kansas State
| Location | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
TCU vs Kansas State latest injuries
TCU vs Kansas State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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