Lincoln Riley begins his fifth season as USC head coach against a downtrodden San Jose State program on Saturday at 3 p.m. ET (NBC) from Los Angeles Memorial Stadium in L.A.
The Trojans are a 38.5-point favorite against a Spartans team that has next to no continuity, and my San Jose State vs. USC predictions and college football picks project Jayden Maiava & Co. to light it up yet another Group of 6 program.
San Jose State vs USC predictions
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Early San Jose State vs USC spread pick: USC -38.5
This is a big spread, and winning by 39+ points is a tough ask, no matter how poor the opponent is, but San Jose State is no Trojan horse.
The Spartans are exactly what they appear to be, and they're set to be one of the worst Group of 6 programs, which is why their Under is among my favorite Mountain West win totals bets.
San Jose State has regressed under Ken Niumatalolo and got worse as last season went on (1-6 ATS in its final seven after starting 3-2 ATS).
With the second-lowest returning production in the nation (24%) and a new starting QB in Luke Weaver, who has more career turnover-worthy plays (seven) than TD passes (six), the Spartans won't score enough to cover.
USC seems to have waged a war against G6 programs since its Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane. Since 2023, the Trojans have outscored G6 programs by an average of 45.4 points, beating four of the five by 39+.
And with QB Jayden Maiava back after finishing No. 2 nationally in QBR last season (89.9), USC is the play as long as the spread stays below 40.
Play this to -41.5.
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Early San Jose State vs USC total pick: Under 60.5
For USC to be a legitimate college football national championship odds contender this season, it will come down to the defense. That's why the Trojans spent the offseason investing in that side of the ball with transfers like Jontez Williams (Iowa State) and major recruits like Luke Wafle.
Even with a new defensive coordinator in TCU legend Gary Patterson, USC's defense is projected by SP+ to improve to Top 30 this season.
That spells trouble for San Jose State, which is projected to be 114th in offensive SP+ and set to start a half-dozen transfers on offense against the Trojans.
That lack of continuity against an improved USC defense will make it difficult for San Jose State to score double digits, and if it can't put 10 on the board, the Over will be in tough shape.
The Under has room to drop and still be playable, too, and I like it as long as the game total stays above 55.5...
I have USC winning 48-6.
San Jose State vs USC odds
- San Jose State vs USC spread: USC -38.5
- San Jose State vs USC moneyline: San Jose State 2%, USC 98%
- San Jose State vs USC Over/Under: 60.5
How to watch San Jose State vs USC
- San Jose State vs. USC matchup
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026, 3 p.m. ET
- City: Los Angeles, California
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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