In one of the biggest non-conference Group of 6 matchups of the season, a new-look Memphis team heads to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday, Aug. 29 to take on UNLV in Week 0 action at 10 p.m. ET (FOX).
While the Rebels are a 5.5-point favorite, my Memphis vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks project the Tigers to take advantage of Dan Mullen's precarious QB situation and keep this game close.
Memphis vs UNLV predictions
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Early Memphis vs UNLV spread pick: Memphis +5.5
It was supposed to be a foregone conclusion that Jackson Arnold would be UNLV's QB1 when the former blue-chip recruit transferred from Auburn to Dan Mullen's program in the offseason. However, Arnold has reportedly been shaky through summer and fall camp, and Mullen announced that both he and Alex Orji would play against Memphis.
Without a clear top QB, Memphis could take advantage, especially early.
Though the Tigers are basically an all-transfer lineup in Charles Huff's first season at the helm, their transfer class is ranked No. 3 in the G6, and a big reason their Over is among my favorite American Conference win total predictions.
Even with Huff yet to name a starting QB between Marcus Stokes and Air Noland, Memphis has an advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Huff brought his two best defenders from Southern Miss with him to Memphis, J'Mond Tapp and Ian Foster, who helped the Golden Eagles rank 38th nationally in defensive EPA per pass and 18th in defensive early downs EPA per play last year.
It might only take a handful of stops from Memphis' defense to keep what's expected to be a high-scoring game close. With that said, I'm only on Memphis at +5.5 or better.
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Early Memphis vs UNLV total pick: Over 56.5
UNLV is projected to be one of the G6 College Football Playoff contenders because of its offense. Mullen has a long history of success as an offensive mastermind, and UNLV was ranked in the Top 25 in both EPA per pass and rush last season.
Even with an uncertain QB situation, the Rebels enter the year with the highest-ranked G6 offense by SP+ thanks to superstar running back Jai'Den Thomas. Regardless of who's at QB, the run game should find success against Memphis.
But UNLV's defense is a major issue. Last season, its defense was 89th in SP+ and 127th in EPA per rush, so Memphis shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball with players like Dallan Hayden and Tychaun Chapman.
This should be a high-scoring game — I have UNLV winning 34-30 — and would take the Over on a game total as high as 58.5.
More Week 0 college football analysis
- Early New Mexico State vs. Florida State predictions
- Early NC State vs. Virginia predictions
- Early San Jose State vs. USC predictions
- Early North Carolina vs. TCU predictions
Memphis vs UNLV odds
- Memphis vs UNLV spread: UNLV -5.5
- Memphis vs UNLV moneyline: Memphis 35%, UNLV 65%
- Memphis vs UNLV Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Memphis vs UNLV
- Memphis vs. UNLV matchup
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026, 10 p.m. ET
- City: Las Vegas, NV
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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