The Mountain West looks completely different this year, with several teams defecting to the new Pac-12, a MAC program joining, and an FCS dynasty jumping to FBS. But even with all the change, it's among the best Group of 6 conferences in the country.
With so much talent up top, two of my favorite teams to back with my 2026 Mountain West win total predictions will be serious College Football Playoff contenders in the G6, while my two favorites to fade could be looking for new head coaches sooner rather than later.
Find out more in my college football picks below.
2026 Mountain West win totals: Best bets
Here are my favorite Mountain West win total bets for the 2026 season. Looking for another school? Find my complete win total picks for all 10 teams at the bottom of the page.
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
 New Mexico |
8.5 | Over | +140 |
 North Dakota State |
9.5 | Over | +175 |
 San Jose State |
4.5 | Under | +100 |
 Wyoming |
5.5 | Under | +110 |
Favorite Mountain West Over win total bets
New Mexico Over 8.5 wins (+140)
Between 2008 and 2024, New Mexico made a bowl game just twice and had a winning percentage below .300 more often (10) than not (seven). In Jason Eck's first year on the job in 2025, the program won its second-most games in program history (nine).
Now the Lobos enter Year 2 under Eck as one of the most popular G6 teams in the country. Brad Powers has New Mexico to make the CFP as one of his favorite college football long-shot futures for 2026 — and rightfully so.
New Mexico ranks No. 21 nationally in returning production (63%) and brings back one of the G6's top defensive players: Its head coach's son, linebacker Jaxton Eck. Eck, along with pass rusher Darren Agu and several transfers in the secondary, gives the Lobos the building blocks to have the best defense in the Mountain West.
Even with starting QB Jack Layne dealing with an offseason injury, New Mexico's offense should be lethal. Offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner is among the most underrated in the country, and he has a strong O-line to lean on.
Plus, the Lobos don't lack for playmakers, with transfers Troy Omeire (UNLV), Miles Williams (Eastern Washington), and Cameron Matthews (Memphis) joining Scottre Humphrey and Shawn Miller.
North Dakota State Over 9.5 wins (+175)
Moving from the FCS to FBS can be difficult for some programs, but North Dakota State isn't just any program. The Bison won 10 FCS Championships between 2011 and 2024, with the most recent title coming under current head coach Tim Polasek in his first season on the job.
Winning is as normalized as agriculture in Fargo, and the Mountain West won't stop NDSU from doing what it does best. Under Polasek, the Bison are 26-3 in the last two seasons, and though they've graduated several key members of their '24 national title-winning team, this roster is FBS-ready.
New starting QB Nathan Hayes has been in the program developing for years and steps in behind an offensive line led by Griffin Empey that should be one of the best in the G6. And running back DJ Scott and tight end Reis Kessel have all-conference talent.
The defense is the real moneymaker, though, with it ranking No. 34 in returning production (60%) and bringing back stars Keenan Wilson, Donovan Woolen, and Taylen Eady.
It also helps that North Dakota State has arguably the easiest schedule in the conference — No. 137 nationally in SOS (.427).
Favorite Mountain West Under win total bets
San Jose State Under 4.5 wins (+100)
Although San Jose State is the only team in the country that plays 13 regular-season games (opting to play an extra game to offset travel costs for playing at Hawaii), finding more than four wins on this schedule is tough.
The Spartans have the second-lowest returning production in the country (24%) and are banking on Hawaii transfer QB Luke Weaver to make up for the loss of two-year starter Walker Eget to Duke. Weaver has more career turnover-worthy plays (seven) than TD passes (six).
After last year's 3-9 campaign, Ken Niumatalolo is going portal-heavy to try and turn things around, with potentially double-digit transfers starting for him... but not many of them are proven commodities at the FBS level.
With one of the tougher schedules in the Mountain West (USC, at Eastern Michigan, Fresno State in non-conference play on top of Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV, and North Dakota State), it could be another three-win year in San Jose.
Wyoming Under 5.5 wins (+110)
It's getting late early for Jay Sawvel in Laramie. Two years into taking over for the retired Craig Bohl, Sawvel has yet to reach a bowl game, something his predecessor did six times in his final eight seasons at the helm.
Even last year with one of the better G6 defenses, Wyoming managed just four wins thanks to one of the worst offenses in the country.
To try and fix the offensive woes, Sawvel brought in William & Mary transfer Tyler Hughes at QB and hired Christian Taylor as offensive coordinator. But even if those two lift the floor offensively, the defense is in for a major regression.
The Cowboys are ranked No. 120 nationally in returning defensive production (36%) and lose most of last year's contributors from the front seven. If the defense isn't in the top half of the conference, it's going to be another bowl-less season in Laramie.
Complete 2026 Mountain West win totals & picks for every team
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
 Air Force |
7.5 | Under | -110 |
 Hawaii |
7.5 | Over | +140 |
 Nevada |
3.5 | Under | +144 |
| New Mexico |
8.5 | Over | +140 |
| North Dakota State |
9.5 | Over | +175 |
 Northern Illinois |
3.5 | Over | +105 |
| San Jose State |
4.5 | Under | +100 |
 UNLV |
8.5 | Over | +140 |
 UTEP |
3.5 | Under | -125 |
| Wyoming |
5.5 | Under | +110 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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