The Florida State Seminoles (-30.5) kick off a pivotal 2026 season with a Week 0 home game against the New Mexico State Aggies.
After missing a bowl in consecutive seasons, Mike Norvell & Co. must get off to a hot start.
I have high expectations of that happening with my early New Mexico State vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Aug. 29.
New Mexico State vs Florida State predictions
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Early New Mexico State vs Florida State spread pick: Florida State -30.5
Mike Norvell, who enters this season on the hot seat, must build some much-needed good favor by winning this opening game comfortably, by a significant margin.
We've seen him keep his foot on the gas in past squash matchers, trampling East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10) a year ago, Southern Mississippi (66-13) and North Alabama (58-13) in 2023, and Duquesne in 2022.
Nearly every time he's been a large favorite over an overmatched opponent, a slaughter has followed.
He's working with an improved roster, too.
Ousmane Kromah and this three-headed backfield should run all over a New Mexico State defense that was good against the rush a year ago (15th in EPA per rush) but takes a big step back without its top three defensive tackles.
Ashton Daniels' veteran experience will come in handy, and Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy are a top-notch receiving duo who will get free against a secondary that ranked 108th in passing success rate and now havily features a former FCS tint.
The Aggies were lifeless offensively last year (129th in standard downs EPA) despite facing an extremely forgiving schedule, so they won't score enough to stay within the number
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Early New Mexico State vs Florida State total pick: Under 53.5
I don't see the Aggies scoring enough for the Over to come home.
Tony Sanchez is hoping to mitigate the offensive issues with a new offensive coordinator (David Yost) and transfers at quarterback and offensive line.
Likely starter Trey Hedden's surface-level stats looked fine (68.5% completion percentage; 2,967 passing yards) with Furman last year, but his underlying metrics indicate he's an overvalued asset. He had as many turnover-worthy passes and big-time throws (14), and the split was even worse in 2024 (11 big-time throws, 16 turnover-worthy passes).
The Florida State Seminoles upgraded at linebacker and have a solid run defense that should shut down NMSU (2.6 yards per rush last year). The secondary is the concern, but two senior starting corners should avoid embarrassment in a soft matchup.
On the flip side, Florida State probably scores a lot of points, but this isn't some FCS opponent that puts up absolutely no resistance.
The Aggies ranked 40th in EPA per play defensively. In their most difficult matchup of the season, they held a high-powered Tennessee offense 53.3 total yards below its season-long average.
The Seminoles will pile up enough points to cover, but not enough to hit the Over.
New Mexico State vs Florida State odds
- New Mexico State vs Florida State spread: Florida State -30.5
- New Mexico State vs Florida State moneyline: New Mexico State 98%, Florida State 2%
- New Mexico State vs Florida State Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch New Mexico State vs Florida State
- New Mexico State vs. Florida State matchup
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026, 7 p.m. ET
- City: Tallahassee, Florida
- Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
- TV: CW
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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