With USC coming off an upset loss to Minnesota, the Trojans’ matchup on Saturday with Penn State has a little less luster.
The Nittany Lions are 5-0 and ranked in the Top 5, and I expect them to lean on their running back in my Penn State vs. USC predictions surrounding player props.
Find out why in my college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Penn State vs USC props for Week 7
- Singleton anytime TD (-115 at BetMGM)
- Moss Under 243.5 pass yds (-115 at BetMGM)
- Warren Over 38.5 rec yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-11.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Penn State vs USC college football player props
Prop bet #1: Nicholas Singleton anytime touchdown
After not playing against UCLA last week, Penn State head coach James Franklin says he expects Nicholas Singleton to be “ready to go” against USC on Saturday.
That’s bad news for the Trojans, who've had some issues stopping the run this season. They rank 48th in EPA per rush and allow 158.6 rushing yards per game — second-most in the Big Ten.
With USC unable to stop the run, Singleton is in for a huge day and will find the end zone at least once — the Trojans have allowed the second-most rushing TDs in the conference with eight.
Prior to missing the win against the Bruins, Singleton was among the most productive backs in the country. He’s rushed for 408 yards in four games while averaging 14.7 touches for 120.5 yards from scrimmage and 1.2 TDs per game.
More importantly, he’s scored five touchdowns this season, including at least one in every game. The former five-star recruit has been one of the best big-play backs in the country, which will come in handy when trying to score against USC.
He’s averaging 4.15 yards after contact per carry, has 12 runs of 10+ yards, and seven of 15+ yards. While Singleton doesn’t have nearly the same workload as other top backs in the country, he’s still one of the scariest backs to face, with his 7.7 yards per carry ranking sixth in the nation.
With USC’s defense having missed 40 tackles in five games, expect Singleton to create problems and find the end zone.
Prop bet #2: Miller Moss Under 243.5 passing yards
Just a month ago, Miller Moss looked like he was on pace to be Lincoln Riley’s next great QB. But since USC’s win over LSU to open the season, the program is 1-2 against Power 4 teams, and Moss is coming off his worst game as a Trojan.
It’s worth noting he got banged up against Wisconsin two weeks ago and temporarily left the game. Even if he’s 100% on Saturday, Moss is going to have a tough time hitting the Over on this line against the Nittany Lions' defense.
Penn State is fourth in SP+ on defense, 17th in EPA per dropback, and allows the 12th-fewest passing yards per game in the country (157). However, this bet has more to do with USC’s offensive line issues than it does with Penn State’s secondary being a top group.
The Trojans have the seventh-worst pass-blocking unit in the country by PFF and have allowed 55 pressures and 18 QB hits in five games. The biggest issue is the starting tackle duo of Elijah Paige and Mason Murphy.
Those two have combined to give up a jaw-dropping 27 pressures and 11 QB hits, and now they have to slow one of the best pass-rushing duos in the country... yeah good luck with that!
Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton have a combined 35 pressures this season and should be all over the USC field general. Without a clean pocket against this defense, I think Moss hits the Under on this number for the second straight game.
Prop bet #3: Tyler Warren Over 38.5 receiving yards
Penn State always has a stud tight end with an NFL future, and Tyler Warren looks like the next great one. The redshirt senior leads the Nittany Lions in receiving yards (289) and has had Over 38.5 in two of his last four games.
In a matchup with a higher-quality opponent, the Lions will likely go to the air a little more than they have in recent weeks. That should benefit Warren, who’s averaging 57.8 receiving yards per game.
The lone time the Trojans played a quality passing game with a tight end as talented as Warren was in their opener against LSU. Mason Taylor finished with 62 yards on seven receptions in that matchup.
Warren should find similar production against a defense just 60th in SP+. With Drew Allar behind center, Penn State is 12th in SP+ on offense and sixth in EPA per dropback, and Warren is his favorite target.
He leads the team in targets (29), and Allar has a 128.3 NFL QB rating when throwing it his way. Plus, Warren ranks Top 10 nationally among tight ends in yards per route run (2.60), first downs (17), and yards after the catch (149).
Expect Allar to be looking in Warren’s direction early and often in this matchup.
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