A study by researchers from the David B. Falk College of Sports at Syracuse University and Coastal Carolina University found a strong relationship between pregame betting volume and national TV ratings for college football games.
The study, “The Relationship Between Pre-Game Betting Volume and TV Ratings in NCAA Football,” was authored by Rodney Paul, professor, department chair, and director of sport analytics at Syracuse; Nick Riccardi, adjunct professor at Syracuse; and Andrew Weinbach, professor of economics at Coastal Carolina.
Study examines betting, TV relationship
The study examines the empirical relationship between viewership of college football games on national television and the prematch wagering activity on these games’ outcomes, offering new evidence on the interaction between betting activity and media consumption of NCAA football games.
Researchers used Action Network data to measure pregame betting activity and Sports Media Watch data for television ratings. They analyzed the data using two fixed-effects regression models to predict Nielsen household TV ratings and pregame wagering volume.
Researchers controlled for factors including potential scoring, kickoff time, broadcasting network, and perceived game competitiveness to isolate the relationship between ratings and wagering activity.
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Finding strong relationship between betting, viewership
The study found a strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between pregame betting volume and college football viewership.
“The results show that games with higher betting activity before kickoff draw larger national television audiences,” Paul told Covers.
“We also looked at the point spread and found that more competitive games typically spark greater interest in both markets (betting and viewing),” Paul added.
Researchers used the absolute value of the point spread as a measure of perceived competitiveness. A larger predicted score difference would indicate one team is a stronger favorite, and games with larger spreads tended to have lower betting volume and TV ratings.
Major networks carry highest betting, ratings numbers
The researchers also found that the network that aired a game had a significant effect on both betting volume and television ratings. Broadcasts on ABC, FOX, ESPN, or CBS were associated with higher pregame betting activity and larger audiences than games carried by other outlets.
The study also points out that this likely reflects how games get scheduled well before kickoff. Major networks tend to select the season's most anticipated matchups for their biggest broadcast windows, meaning the network effect may partly reflect the quality and profile of the games themselves.
Betting volume as an early measure of fan interest
One of the broader arguments is that pregame betting volume can serve as a proxy for fan interest in a college football game. This comes alongside more familiar gauges such as TV ratings, stadium attendance, and social media activity.
Betting volume is tracked continuously as money comes in before kickoff, potentially giving sportsbooks, broadcasters, and college programs an earlier signal of which games are generating interest than official TV ratings.
The authors repeat their caution here. A correlation between betting volume and viewership does not mean the two are interchangeable measures in every situation, and the study does not claim that one metric can replace the other.
Paul summarized the key takeaway from the research.
“The findings suggest that betting interest and television consumption are closely related forms of fan engagement. Betting volume may provide another useful measure of consumer interest in sporting events and adds to the evidence that sports wagering is connected to broader sports consumption,” he said.
What findings could mean for sportsbooks, broadcasters, schools
The findings could have potential applications across the sports betting and media industries, although those uses extend beyond what the study directly examined.
Sportsbook operators could use early betting volume patterns to identify upcoming games likely to draw significant betting interest and plan marketing or trading operations around those matchups.
Broadcasters could potentially factor betting interest into scheduling and programming decisions, particularly for games that might not stand out on paper but are drawing unusual attention in the betting market.
Collegiate athletic departments and conferences could similarly use betting volume as another measure of fan interest, potentially helping them track which games and programs are attracting greater attention as legal sports betting expands.
More betting research from authors
Paul, Weinbach, and Riccardi have also studied other intersections between sports viewing and betting. Their recent paper, “Cross-Sport Substitution Effects on NBA Betting Volume: Evidence from the 2024-2025 Regular Season,” examined whether simultaneous NFL, NHL, and MLB games affected NBA betting volume.
The researchers treated betting volume as the dependent variable and used parallel games from other major leagues as independent variables. They also included additional NBA game-specific controls, including broadcasting network, start time, point spread, and posted totals.
The researchers found that betting activity on regular-season NBA games declined when games from other major sports were being played and televised at the same time, suggesting bettors reallocate wagers when competing sports are available.
“This study aims to give us insight and update our knowledge on the key drivers of customer activity in sports betting, due to the changing landscape in the industry,” Riccardi told Covers. “We studied how cross-sport substitution and national television broadcasts affect sports betting activity, specifically focusing on the NBA and NHL as natural competitors as their regular seasons run in parallel.”
