Calling this a do-or-die moment for the Penn State Nittany Lions might be a stretch — but only slightly.
While a loss to the Oregon Ducks this weekend wouldn't eliminate Penn State from College Football Playoff contention, it would certainly stall the momentum of a team expected to make a serious run. As short home favorites, the pressure is on to deliver.
My Oregon vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks trust the home team because of its two greatest strengths.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 27.
Oregon vs Penn State prediction
Oregon vs Penn State best bet: Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114)
No one likes throwing against Oregon. Nor should they. The Ducks’ defense ranks No. 3 in the country in dropback success rate against, per cfb-graphs.com. And that defense has not given up many explosive passes this season, either, ranking No. 6 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
As a result, opponents run against the Ducks at the second-highest rate in the country, 22.1% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state.
The thing is, Penn State will be okay with that. The Nittany Lions throw often — No. 11 in the country at 10.7% more often than expected — but they do not need to. Penn State ranks No. 3 in the country in EPA per rush. Let’s put that as simply as possible: The Nittany Lions improve their chances of scoring on a drive when they run the ball, often by a lot.
Kaytron Allen has led the way, despite Nicholas Singleton getting more carries. Allen has averaged more than eight yards per carry and cleared this prop in two of three games.
That absurd average can be traced to the opponents, but that skeptical note is countered by recognizing Allen cleared this prop despite all being blowouts. He has yet to be tasked with a heavy workload. When that occurs, he should still reach 70+ yards.
Oregon’s passing defense should force that heavy workload. And its then only-adequate rushing defense should allow Allen to clear this prop.
Oregon vs Penn State same-game parlay
Penn State obviously has options beyond Allen. Nicholas Singleton has scored five touchdowns this season.
Combining that duo should steady the Nittany Lions for the biggest win of the James Franklin Era. And as Penn State forces Oregon away from the pass, it will simply be funneling the Ducks into one of the best defensive fronts in the country, creating a needed edge on both sides of the ball.
Oregon vs Penn State SGP
- Penn State -3.5
- Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards
- Nicholas Singleton anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Nittany Lions run the ball effectively
If Penn State dominates this game on the ground, Oregon will need to resort to the air at some point. Its rushing attack is simply not strong enough to keep up with the Nittany Lions'. Dakorien Moore may not be the best-known Ducks receiver, but he may be the most explosive, and if needing a quick strike, quarterback Dante Moore (no relation) should know where to look.
Oregon vs Penn State SGP
- Penn State -3.5
- Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards
- Nicholas Singleton anytime TD
- Dakorien Moore anytime TD
Oregon vs Penn State game predictions
Oregon vs Penn State moneyline prediction
Folks can criticize “Big Game James” as much as they like, certain in their claims that Franklin cannot win a big game. Know who they used to say that about? Jim Harbaugh. Then Michigan won a national championship. After him? They were firing this complaint at Ryan Day after the last regular season. Then what happened?
No coach can win a big game until he does.
Oregon vs Penn State spread prediction
The personal want all week was to see a single Penn State -3 pop up on the odds board and grab that. Alas, aside from the earliest moment on Sunday, no such option has been available.
Siding with the Nittany Lions despite the hook ties in large part to their defensive line, which is why Penn State ranks No. 2 in EPA per rush against, despite opponents running against the Lions with great frequency.
Oregon vs Penn State Over/Under prediction
With both teams likely to take to the ground, deferring to the superior pass defenses, then the Under should be assured.
As long as this total is north of 52, take the Under. Both 52 and 51 are key numbers in college football totals betting.
Oregon vs Penn State odds
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 | Penn State -3.5
- Moneyline: Oregon +146 | Penn State -178
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Oregon vs Penn State trend to know
No matter the opponents being Nevada, FIU, and FCS-level Villanova, it should be noted that Penn State has not given up a touchdown this season unless there was a minute or less remaining in the game. And two such touchdowns are the only reasons two Overs have cashed in three Nittany Lions’ games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Penn State.
How to watch Oregon vs Penn State
| Location | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date | Saturday, September 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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