Oklahoma vs Kansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sooners Still Still Too Good for Jayhawks

The Kansas Jayhawks aren’t out of the Big 12 title race just yet, believe it or not. With two conference losses, Kansas needs some help to make a charge to the conference championship game, but more pertinently, the Jayhawks need to upset the Oklahoma Sooners as college football odds underdogs this afternoon.

That thought has sparked laughter this entire century. Oklahoma has won every meeting since 2000, the closest game being last year’s 10-point Sooners victory, one made closer by two Kansas touchdowns in the fourth quarter long after the game had been decided.

Can the Jayhawks make this weekend closer, if not find a win? Let’s ponder in our free college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Kansas on October 28.

Oklahoma vs Kansas best odds

Oklahoma vs Kansas picks and predictions

To be blunt, the talent disparity between these two remains too wide. As much as Kansas has improved in Lance Leipold’s three seasons, it remains too far behind the Big 12’s best rosters to genuinely compete. That 2021 upset of Texas was more a reflection of the Longhorns’ focus and roster churn than it was a compliment of some surge in Jayhawks’ talent.

A year ago, in the Sooners’ worst season in more than two decades, Oklahoma still kept Kansas at bay with relative ease. The Jayhawks would eventually fall off a figurative cliff, barely getting to their first bowl in 14 years, but the loss to the Sooners came just before that struggle became dire.

Most notably, Oklahoma gashed the Kansas defense. Leipold and quarterback Jason Bean deploy a creative offense, but it’s not so innovative as to keep up with a problematic defense. That was the case last year, and it remains the case now.

The Jayhawks give up success on both early and late downs, and they’re most vulnerable against the pass. Dillon Gabriel threw for 403 yards on 9.6 yards per attempt last year against Kansas, and he should play even better this weekend. Kansas is worse in both expected points added per dropback against and in defensive success rate against the pass than it was last regular season, while Oklahoma’s offense is better in each regard.

And those changes are drastic, particularly the Sooners’ offense. They’re successful on 12.6% more of their pass plays than last regular season, part of how they have raised their EPA per dropback by 0.12 points.

Oklahoma finds a scoring opportunity on 56.1% of its drives, No. 9 in the country. The Sooners have fallen short of their team total three times this season, and two of those came against defenses just as bad as Kansas’. Against Cincinnati and Central Florida, Oklahoma failed to convert its scoring opportunities, turning 12 quality drives against them into a total of 51 points, 4.25 points per scoring opportunity, down from the Sooners’ average of 4.83 points in their other five games this season.

To be clear, 4.25 points per scoring opportunity is still quite good, ranking No. 33 in the country, but 4.83 points would rank in the Top 10.

If Oklahoma struggles again where it matters most, it may fall short of this weekend’s team total of 38.5 points. To protect against that thought, let’s just take the Sooners to cover this widely-available 9.5-point spread, taking advantage of that hook and not completely discounting an Oklahoma defense that’s stout against the run, Kansas’s bread and butter.

My best bet: Oklahoma -9 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oklahoma vs Kansas same-game parlay

Oklahoma -9.5
Dillon Gabriel Over 290.5 passing yards
Nic Anderson anytime touchdown

+420 at FanDuel

This should be rather self-explanatory. And it is very much based on Kansas’s pass defense being that bad. Three of its last four opponents threw for 325 yards or more, two of which — BYU and Oklahoma State — cannot claim to have passing attacks anything like one led by Gabriel. The Jayhawks rank No. 83 in the country in passer rating against, No. 78 in passing yards allowed per game, and No. 73 in passing yards allowed per attempt, at 7.4 yards.

Gabriel will raise all those averages.

And his favorite touchdown target is Nic Anderson, the freshman catching eight touchdowns in the last five games with at least one in each of those

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

Oklahoma opened as a 10-point favorite on Sunday, and this spread spent most of the week there before a late-week drop to -9.5, some books even pondering -9. This line moving toward Kansas was somewhat a surprise, given the Sooners opened the season covering their first six games before overlooking Central Florida two weeks ago ahead of an idle week.

If willing to assume that 31-29 worry was mostly the cause of eagerness for a week off, then it should be assumed Oklahoma will return to exceeding bookmakers’ expectations.

The total opened at 68.5 before quickly falling to 66.5 and then 65.5 on Tuesday, where it sat most of the week, some books ticking back to 66 on Thursday.

The Sooners defense is underrated, mostly because the offense has been that efficient. It could conceivably slow the Jayhawks to such an extent as to doom any Over thoughts, but Gabriel could push Oklahoma well past 40 points, at which point Bean will not need to carry much of the load.

Oklahoma vs Kansas betting trend to know

Eight of Kansas’s last 12 games have gone Over their pregame totals. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Kansas.

Oklahoma vs Kansas game info

Oklahoma vs Kansas latest injuries

Oklahoma vs Kansas weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic