It’s John Mateer vs. Ty Simpson as the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Who will come out on top in this matchup full of College Football Playoff implications?
I’m betting there’s some value in Mateer and this elite Sooners defense as underdogs, not just to cover the spread but to win in Tuscaloosa outright. So, I’ve built an SGP based on a big day for the Oklahoma signal caller.
And for even more college football picks for this SEC clash, check out my Oklahoma vs. Alabama predictions.
Our best Oklahoma vs Alabama SGP for Week 12
The Oklahoma Sooners need to win this game. A third loss will almost certainly knock them out of the College Football Playoff picture.
But the Sooners can succeed in this matchup.
This is an elite Brent Venables defense. The Sooners lead the nation in defensive success rate and are fourth in opponent EPA per play. They are fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in success rate on dropbacks.
If Alabama can’t run the ball, this OU defense, which ranks second in the country in sack rate, will come after Ty Simpson with exotic blitz packages that he hasn’t seen much of this season.
Meanwhile, the Sooners will need a big performance out of John Mateer and the run game. Mateer is coming off his best rushing game since his thumb injury, going for 80 yards and a score on 16 carries against Tennessee.
Alabama ranks 60th in success rate vs. the rush.
Defending and controlling the tempo of the game by running the football gives the Sooners a path to victory in a must-win game.
Back to Mateer, his rushing total for this game is sitting at 35.5. In recent games against running QBs, Alabama has surrendered 67 yards to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and 56 to Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
Mateer should get Over this number on Saturday.
Meanwhile, I also like Ty Simpson to go Over his passing yards prop of 268.5. Passing against this Oklahoma defense isn’t easy, but it’s all Alabama can really do.
Plus, the Tide might be forced into more throwing situations in what should be a tight matchup. Not to mention Oklahoma gave up over 300 yards passing in a recent loss to Mississippi.
On top of that, Simpson has gone Over this number in four of his last seven games.
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