New Mexico State vs Hawai'i Picks & Props
NMSU vs HAW Picks
NCAAF PicksNew Mexico State is underrated offensively after improving at quarterback (Trey Hedden: 8.5 yards per attempt) and offensive line (25th in front seven havoc allowed). Running back James Jones and receiver TK King can both be stars in Conference USA, and they'll find the end zone against a poor-performing Hawaii defense (123rd in PFF's defensive grade).
Hawaii can't run or shoot offensively. The offensive line (127th in PFF's pass-blocking grade) and receiving unit (126th in receiving grade) are both a mess, which has led to quarterback Micah Alejado completing just 52.2% of his passes for 4.9 yards per attempt. I can't consider an Over with this team until things turn around, especially not unless I get a lower number. The market hasn't adjusted enough yet.
New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS and has an improved offense to pair with a typically fine defense under Tony Sanchez. Hawaii is 0-2 ATS and has been terrible on offense (118th in EPA per play) and defense (105th). It's been a tale of two seasons for these squads to start the year, so I'm grabbing the points with the Aggies, as the market is slow to adjust.
Hawaii has scored just one touchdown in the first half this season, and another slugglish start could be in store against a much-improved New Mexico State squad that has performed better on both sides of the ball.
NMSU vs HAW Consensus Picks
NMSU vs HAW Props
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