The initial College Football Playoff rankings have been released, meaning we’ve entered the portion of the season where every win is magnified and every loss can be critical.
Let’s take a look at the biggest games of the weekend, analyzing the correct moneyline college football picks for each matchup.
Week 11 college football moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Indiana vs  Penn State |
(-820) |
 BYU vs  Texas Tech |
(-350) |
 Georgia vs  Mississippi State |
(-320) |
 Texas A&M vs  Missouri |
(-265) |
 Oregon vs  Iowa |
(-245) |
 Auburn vs  Vanderbilt |
(-245) |
 Wake Forest vs  Virginia |
(+205) |
 LSU vs  Alabama |
(-385) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-5.
Expert Week 11 CFB moneyline picks
Indiana vs Penn State: Indiana (-820)
No. 2 Indiana is a wagon, winning 20 of 22 games under Curt Cignetti. Preseason darling Penn State, meanwhile, has fallen on its face to the tune of a 3-5 record and a fired James Franklin. Indiana’s stout defense (fifth in success rate) will cause many problems for redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer.
BYU vs Texas Tech: Texas Tech (-350)
The only game of the weekend featuring two Top-10 teams, No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Texas Tech is a massive one for the Big 12 race. Tech is 18-3 as a home favorite under Joey McGuire and can rely on its elite defense (second in EPA per play allowed) for a victory.
Georgia vs Mississippi State: Georgia (-320)
Three of No. 5 Georgia’s wins have come by double-digits, but the Bulldogs have found a way to a 7-1 record despite those close calls. They’re the much superior team on paper, and that means they should get it done in Week 11, but a trip to Starkville is rarely easy.
Texas A&M vs Missouri: Texas A&M (-265)
No. 19 Missouri will be without quarterback Beau Pribula and backup Sam Horn, meaning true freshman Matt Zollers gets the nod. No. 3 Texas A&M hasn’t been quite as impressive as its 8-0 record would indicate, so the Aggies are getable, but this is too much to ask of Zollers.
Oregon vs Iowa: Oregon (-245)
Iowa is 6-2 with a great opportunity to do something special at home, but the Hawkeyes simply don’t have the offense (73rd in EPA per play) to threaten No. 6 Oregon. In the last three years, Dan Lanning’s squad hasn’t lost to anyone other than teams with elite offenses (Indiana this year, Ohio State last year, Washington two years ago), and that’s not the case in this game.
Auburn vs Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt (-245)
Auburn could muddy things up with its terrific run defense (third in stuff rate, second in EPA per rush allowed), but the offense (110th in EPA per play) is so bad that I can’t envision an upset. This is a tough scheduling spot for No. 15 Vanderbilt after losing at Texas a week ago, but the Commodores are usually ready for war under Clark Lea.
Wake Forest vs Virginia: Wake Forest (+205)
No. 12 Virginia has lived dangerously despite the 8-1 record, so the Cavaliers are ripe to be picked off at any point. Wake Forest has been surprisingly feisty in Year 1 of the Jake Dickert era, and its superb defense (eighth in success rate) can cause problems for a Virginia offense that hasn’t averaged 6.0 yards per play in a game since September 20.
LSU vs Alabama: Alabama (-385)
LSU hasn’t fixed the offense (84th in EPA per play) all year, and the defense is regressing quickly. No. 4 Alabama has won seven straight games, and Heisman hopeful Ty Simpson has found a way to get it done in close calls against Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina.
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