Championship Week has arrived, bringing nine deciding games — four on Friday, and five more on Saturday.
Will there be upsets in store, or will chalk roll? Find out in my college football picks for Championship Week.
Championship Week college football moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Troy vs  James Madison |
-3000 |
 Kennesaw State vs  Jacksonville State |
-134 |
 North Texas vs  Tulane |
+116 |
 UNLV vs  Boise State |
-194 |
 Miami (OH) vs  Western Michigan |
-126 |
 Georgia vs  Alabama |
+116 |
 Duke vs  Virginia |
-164 |
 Indiana vs  Ohio State |
-194 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-4.
Expert Championship Week CFB moneyline picks
Troy vs. Team: James Madison (-3000)
Bob Chesney earned his promotion to UCLA, leading an 11-1 Dukes team that lost only to Louisville, and he’ll remain around to coach for as long as their playoff hopes are alive.
The Troy Trojans don’t bring much to the table from an analytics perspective (outside the Top 55 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball), and the overwhelming sentiment is they get trampled by the Dukes.
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State: Kennesaw State (-134)
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have arrived at a surprising 8-4 record, at least in part because they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in the country, per ESPN’s FPI. Charles Kelly’s squad did win the initial matchup, but they also can’t rely on being +4 in turnover margin again this time around.
The Kennesaw State Owls have a strong offense and will need to tighten up the screws just enough on the run defense against a one-dimensional JSU offense.
North Texas vs. Tulane: Tulane (+116)
Metrics favor the North Texas Mean Green in the American Conference title game, but those numbers were accumulated against the 125th-ranked strength of schedule. Eric Morris’ squad didn’t look inspiring in its two toughest games of the year, narrowly surviving an overtime game against Western Michigan and getting its defense thoroughly exposed in a 36-63 loss to South Florida.
The Tulane Green Wave are 10-2 despite facing a tougher slate of opponents and have wins over Northwestern, Duke, ECU, and Memphis. They're 10-2 at Yulman Stadium under Jon Sumrall, giving them a significant homefield advantage.
UNLV vs. Boise State: Boise State (-194)
This marks the third consecutive season in which these two programs will square off in the Mountain West Championship. The Boise State Broncos have won 10 in a row in this budding rivalry, and they have a big advantage at home in Albertsons Stadium for what will be a chilly, and likely rainy, night game.
The UNLV Rebels just haven’t shown enough defensively to inspire much faith in a rematch after Boise hung 56 on them in mid-October.
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan: Western Michigan (-126)
The Western Michigan Broncos have a nasty defense, ranking 25th in success rate and limiting opponents to 5.0 yards per play. The Miami (OH) RedHawks are without starting quarterback DeQuan Finn after he left the program, and his presence was huge in a 26-17 win in the initial meeting.
WMU’s offense has been potent lately, especially on the ground (283 rushing yards per game in its last three), and Lance Taylor has been slowly building something that will culminate in a MAC Championship.
Georgia vs. Alabama: Alabama (+116)
The Alabama Crimson Tide won the first matchup 24-21 at Sanford Stadium, so they’re an appealing underdog. This is still a good matchup, as Ty Simpson should be able to throw against a vulnerable Georgia Bulldogs secondary. On the flip side, it’s difficult to trust UGA’s offense after a terrible showing (3.9 yards per play) against a bad Georgia Tech defense.
Duke vs. Virginia: Virginia (-164)
The Duke Blue Devils have some problems — mainly, a moribund defense checking in at 122nd in EPA per play and surrendering 6.2 yards per play. These teams met in Durham, and the Virginia Cavaliers dominated, winning 34-17, gaining 7.0 ypp to Duke’s 4.4. It’s been a breakthrough season for Tony Elliot and the 10-2 Cavaliers, and they have the more impressive metrics despite facing a similar level of competition.
Indiana vs. Ohio State: Ohio State (-190)
The Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t looked mortal this season. In fact, they haven’t looked beatable for 16 consecutive games dating back to last season. It feels foolish to pick against them while they’re on such a hot streak, even though the Indiana Hoosiers certainly present a difficult opponent.
The Hoosiers haven’t proven to have the outside talent to match up with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and the nation’s best defense will test the RPO offensive game.
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