This is the nightmare ACC brand names feared, that the ACC’s mediocrity could leave the conference out of the College Football Playoff. Of course, this would probably not be an active worry if the ACC’s brand names had not combined to go 12-12 in conference play.
Now, if the Duke Blue Devils upset the Virginia Cavaliers, expect the ACC to miss the Playoffs.
My Duke vs. Virginia predictions expect the ACC’s worst nightmare to be avoided this year.
Duke vs Virginia predictions for the ACC Championship
Who will win the ACC Championship?
This is one of six rematches this weekend and one of the three where the initial victor is again favored.
There may be some instinct to doubt Virginia to beat Duke twice, simply because that is anecdotally difficult, but the reality is one of these teams fell backward into this spot, while the other stepped up when the moments mattered most.
The Cavaliers’ walloping of the Blue Devils in mid-November was, at the time, a must-win, and then Virginia had even greater stakes against rival Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale.
Easily covering the spread in those speaks to the Cavaliers’ strong close to the season, a strong close that should be granted continued faith this weekend.
Duke vs Virginia best bet: Virginia -3.5 (-120)
Virginia did just beat Duke a few weeks ago. The Cavaliers won, 34-17, despite giving up an interception return for a touchdown. By advanced measures, Virginia had a 100% postgame win expectancy, more genuinely winning by 27 points than those 17 points in reality.
That is what comes when you outgain your opponent, 540 yards to 255, and average 7.0 yards per play to their 4.4.
Duke was plus-one in turnover margin and committed four fewer penalties. The margins agreed with the Blue Devils, and the day still could not have gone much worse.
Those margins rarely agreed with Duke in notable games this season, its own mistakes creating the losses to Illinois, Tulane, Georgia Tech and even UConn.
The Blue Devils lost the turnover margin in three of those four games — breaking even against Tulane — by a combined -9. They committed at least six penalties in each of those losses.
Duke’s five outright losses were also its only losses against the spread against FBS competition. Four of them were far more the Blue Devils’ own doing. Only Virginia genuinely dominated Duke.
If the Blue Devils revert to their usual form in a tight game, the Cavaliers should cruise with ease. Even when Duke played well, Virginia had no trouble.
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Duke vs Virginia same-game parlay
Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in his matchup with Duke a few weeks ago, not terribly surprising given the Blue Devils' pass defense has been an outright liability in eight of 11 games this season, particularly woeful in the season's second half. No wonder nine of Duke's 12 games have hit their Overs.
Duke vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -3.5
- Over 57.5
- Chandler Morris Over 229.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Morris rises to the occasion
While Chandler Morris has rushed for only one touchdown in the last seven games, tight games with Playoff stakes are the exact moments to expect more rushing from quarterbacks in short-yardage situations.
Adding a hat in the rushing game creates too much of an advantage to not be used in these moments, no matter the wear on the passers.
Duke vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -3.5
- Over 57.5
- Chandler Morris Over 229.5 passing yards
- Chandler Morris touchdown
Duke vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Duke +3.5 | Virginia -3.5
- Moneyline: Duke +158 | Virginia -188
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Duke vs Virginia trend to know
Virginia is 5-2 against the spread in games with a spread within one score this season. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Virginia.
How to watch Duke vs Virginia
| Location | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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