Miami vs North Carolina Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Maye Makes Mincemeat of Canes Stoppers

No team endured as frustrating a loss as the Miami Hurricanes did. Miami had Georgia Tech beat. And then it kept playing, eventually fumbling and giving up a deep touchdown just before time expired. Miami had no one but itself to blame, starting with head coach Mario Cristobal.

Bouncing back from that kind of debacle is hard enough. Bouncing back on the road as underdogs in the college football odds against an unbeaten conference foe will be harder. The fact that the North Carolina Tar Heels are led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country may make it too much of an ask for Miami.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Miami vs. North Carolina on October 14.

Miami vs North Carolina best odds

Miami vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Handicapping an intangible like Miami’s headspace would be a tricky endeavor. Understanding the mentalities of 18 to 23-year-olds is not feasible when things are going well. Now the Miami locker room has evidence of its leader’s incompetence, evidence to the harshest degree, handing the Hurricanes a conference loss.

Cristobal has a path to redemption. Miami still faces all three of the ACC’s remaining unbeaten teams. If they beat North Carolina, Florida State, and Louisville, the Hurricanes would almost certainly reach the ACC Championship game. Quite frankly, do that and Miami would be in College Football Playoff contention.

But the Hurricanes also have Clemson on the schedule. Including this weekend, they likely will be underdogs in at least three remaining games. The players may be young, cocky, and ambitious, but they also aren’t stupid. They recognize the very real cost of that unnecessary loss last weekend.

The group on that roster that was most exposed in last week’s debacle will be the same group most tested this weekend. While it was a running back that committed the devastating fumble, it was Miami’s defensive backs that were inexplicably burned for the game-deciding touchdown. That was somewhat forgivable, since in the moments before Georgia Tech regained possession, those cornerbacks were probably debating postgame party plans. Their night was supposed to be over.

Those scuttled party plans aside, one strong play from a Miami defensive back would have rendered all these laughs at Cristobal a bit more harmless. It would have been a lesson learned while averting disaster. But the secondary failed to make that stop, and they are arguably the Hurricanes’ weakest link.

It is, to be fair, a rather strong weakest link, ranking No. 63 in the country in expected points added per dropback against. Most teams would love to have an above-average weakest link. But only an above-average pass defense is a recipe for disaster against North Carolina.

If Texas A&M could throw for 336 yards on 6.3 yards per attempt, and if Temple could throw for 268 yards on 6.4 yards per attempt, what hope does Miami have for reigning in Drake Maye?

The Hurricanes’ passing defense is only decent, its most recent display the most costly of letdowns. Now it faces a quarterback averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with a 72.1% completion rate. Maye has dialed it up further in ACC play this year, throwing for 9.6 yards per pass against Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

The Panthers are spiraling, but the Orange boast the No. 32 EPA per dropback against, in some measure because it has picked off six opposing passes, though none of Maye’s.

If he continues to avoid mistakes, no one should bet against North Carolina. Miami is coming off the costliest of mistakes, the kind that can torpedo an entire season. If Cristobal has focused his locker room this week, he would be credited if it was not a mess of his own making in the first place. And it is hard to imagine any room coalescing that quickly.

My best bet: North Carolina -3.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Miami vs North Carolina same-game parlay

North Carolina -3.5

Drake Maye Anytime TD

Drake Maye 325+ Passing Yards

50% boost available

+855 +1,282 at FanDuel

If Maye was not such a dual-threat, North Carolina might never run that ball. That may be hyperbolic, but he is a significant piece of the Tar Heels’ rushing attack, too, even if most of his rushes are not inherently designed.

Maye’s legs keep defenses spread out and worried in all facets, and for good reason. He has rushed for four touchdowns this season, including three in his last two games. Averaging 5.6 yards per rush (sacks adjusted), Maye picks his moments but is far from sparse in pulling down the ball, averaging 9.25 carries in his last four games.

Maye’s legs are so effective in part because defenses mostly assume North Carolina will throw the ball. The Tar Heels do so 8.7% more often than game state would usually expect, No. 18 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com.

This thinking hinges on the belief that this primetime game will unfold in one of two ways. Either North Carolina will rout Miami, sparked by early scores (presumably explosive ones), or the game will actually be close and Maye will need to stay tuned in through all four quarters. In the former scenario, the early scores should inflate his stats, including his yardage. In the latter possibility, the Heels will need to gain yards late, and they prefer only one way to do so.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

North Carolina opened as a 4-point favorite on Sunday, a number quickly knocked down to -3.5, particularly since some stale lookahead lines had clung to -3. Aside from a few glimpses of -3 on Thursday, the line never moved again this week.

The Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread this season, the one loss coming in an in-state matchup with Appalachian State. In their four ATS wins, they have beaten expectations by 13.9 points per game. Even including that ATS loss, North Carolina has beaten the bookmakers’ projections by an average of 8.7 points per week.

This total opened at 60.5 points before a speedy Sunday adjustment to 57 points. It has dabbled at 57.5 during the week. Neither the Heels nor the Hurricanes have shown a clear total trend this season, both hitting the Over in two of their five games.

Miami vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Miami is 5-12 ATS in Cristobal’s tenure as Hurricanes head coach, including 1-4 ATS in a game following a straight-up loss. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs North Carolina.

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