Liberty vs Western Kentucky Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Flames Continue to Burn Opposition

The Liberty Flames will try to keep their undefeated season intact tonight when they visit the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in a Conference USA showdown.

The Flames survived a 42-35 shootout against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders last Tuesday to remain among the ranks of the unbeaten. Meanwhile, WKU is coming off a last-second 20-17 loss to the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.

Liberty hasn’t beaten anyone of note this year, which may be why the college football odds have the Flames as slight favorites for this evening's matchup. I’ll explain why I think they can cover the spread in my free college football picks for Liberty vs. Western Kentucky on October 24. 

Liberty vs Western Kentucky best odds

Liberty vs Western Kentucky picks and predictions

Despite being undefeated, Liberty is only now starting to get close to breaking into the Top 25 of the AP Poll. That’s more than just bias against a Group of 5 team, as the Flames haven’t looked like a top team despite not losing. Liberty has survived one-score games against both Middle Tennessee and the Sam Houston State Bearkats... hardly the class of college football.

But wins are wins, and Liberty keeps rolling. The Flames are holding opponents to less than 20 points per game, while quarterback Kaidon Salter has thrown 16 touchdowns and ran for six more to lead an offense averaging 36.3 points per week. Whatever you might want to say about Liberty’s schedule, there is some talent on this team, and it has established itself as the class of Conference USA.

To cement that reputation, the Flames will have to continue to score wins over second-tier teams in the league, including Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have played a tougher schedule than Liberty, but that’s only because they had the honor of losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes by 53 points in Columbus. While they had a solid start to conference play, the loss to Jacksonville State has made Tuesday’s game a must-win if WKU wants to stay in the race for a league title.

The problem for the Hilltoppers is they haven’t shown the ability to beat teams that look to be anywhere near the level of Liberty. Along with the loss to Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky has also dropped a game to the Troy Trojans, another solid mid-major opponent that is less talented than what the Flames will bring to the table on Tuesday.

There’s also a significant matchup problem for the Hilltoppers on Tuesday. Liberty is among the best running teams in the country, averaging 274.6 rushing yards per game. That should play well this week, as Western Kentucky also allows over 200 ypg on the ground. The Flames can move the ball through the air as well, providing too many threats for a Hilltoppers defense that allows 463.6 yards and 27.7 points per game.

A couple of closer-than-expected games for Liberty, combined with home-field advantage for Western Kentucky, have pushed this spread well below a touchdown. But by all rights, this is a game the Flames should win by a couple of scores. I’m riding the dynamic Liberty offense on Tuesday night, and picking the Flames to cover.

My best bet: Liberty -4 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay

Liberty -4

Under 60.5

Liberty 1H -2.5

+316 at FanDuel

I see Liberty winning this one without much trouble on Tuesday, and that’s reflected in my same-game parlay.

The Flames play excellent defense, at least when they are facing fellow mid-major competition. The Hilltoppers are averaging just 30 points per game this year, and outside of Ohio State, they haven’t played a defense this strong all season. While Liberty will score, that total is just too high not to take the Under.

Finally, I’m choosing the Flames to cover the first-half spread at just 2.5 points. We only need Liberty to win the first 30 minutes of the game by a field goal to get there, and with the Flames being the better team on both sides of the ball, they should be able to take control by the halfway mark even on the road. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

Liberty opened this game as a 3.5-point favorite, with early betting having pushed the line to Flames -4 as of writing. You can even find -4.5 as the main line at some sites.

Along with putting up an undefeated straight up record, Liberty has also been solid against the spread, posting a 5-2 ATS record this season. Western Kentucky has also been good for bettors, going 4-3 against the number in 2023. 

The total for Tuesday’s game opened at 60.5 points, and that remains the consensus Over/Under. Most sites are offering -110 on both sides of that number, though we have seen at least one book move the total to a flat 60 points instead.

While neither team has a strong trend on the total, they have played slightly under the number on the season. The Under has posted a 4-3 advantage in both Liberty and Western Kentucky games this year.

While Liberty is coming off a shootout, that’s a bit of an aberration for the Flames, as they previously played three games with totals of 44 points or less. Similarly, Western Kentucky has played to totals of 51 or less in three of its last four games.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know

Liberty is 4-0 ATS in its last four games away from home overall. Find more college football betting trends for Liberty vs Western Kentucky.

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