Liberty and Coastal Carolina reignite their old Big South rivalry tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when the two programs hit the "Surf Turf" at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C.
The Flames are 2.5-point road favorites, and with both teams seeing success from their QBs, my Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina predictions expect another high-scoring game between these two.
Don't miss all of our college football picks for Thursday, Sept. 24.
Who will win Liberty vs Coastal Carolina: Liberty -2.5
This is the first time Liberty and Coastal Carolina have played in more than five years. The last time they played it was an instant classic, a 37-34 OT win for the Flames, and this matchup could follow a similar script — but with Liberty winning bigger (I like the Flames at -4.5 or better).
Liberty has found something special in QB Deshawn Purdie, who is coming off a dominant performance in a 51-15 win over Ball State. Purdie leads the country in ADOT (13.7), and his willingness to attack deep should make the difference against a Coastal Carolina defense that's 109th in EPA per pass.
And Liberty's pass defense (19th in EPA per pass) should slow Coastal's deep passing game enough to win by 3+ points in a high-scoring game.
COVERS INTEL: Coastal Carolina's defense ranks 113th in early-down EPA per play and 90th in third/fourth down success (48.4%), which bodes well for a Liberty offense that's 34th nationally in early-down EPA per play and 15th in third/fourth down success (57.6%).
TOP PICK
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Over/Under pick: Over 51.5
This is the 16th time Liberty and Coastal Carolina have played since 2003, and historically the Chanticleers' and Flames' matchups have been high on points, which is why I like the Over at 52.5 or better.
In the previous 15 games, the two have finished with an average game total of 61.6, scoring 70+ points in six of the last 10. The old rivals should provide another shootout this time around on the "Surf Turf" in Conway.
Both programs have struggled on defense this season, with Coastal Carolina ranking 77th in available yards percentage (48.6%) and Liberty sitting 109th in EPA per rush.
These QBs love to hunt for big plays, too, with both Purdie and Deuce Bailey ranking in the Top 3 nationally in ADOT. Expect explosive downfield plays early and often.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina combo
These two teams love to put on a show when they play, and they should once again in their first matchup in over half a decade. Liberty has one of the highest-ranked offenses by SP+ (76th), and Coastal has one of the lowest-ranked defenses (112th).
But the Chants have the offensive firepower with Bailey to push Liberty's defense, especially on first and second down. Coastal is 32nd nationally in early-down EPA per play on offense, and that's an area Liberty's defense struggles the most (96th).
I have Liberty taking this game 31-26.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina combo
- Liberty -2.5
- Over 51.5
- Coastal Carolina TT Over 23.5
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina prop: Liberty team total Over 27.5
Against a Ball State defense ranked 132nd by SP+, Purdie threw three touchdowns and finished with the third-highest QBR among Group of Six QBs in Week 3 (85.6). Coastal's defense isn't much better than Ball State's, ranked 112th by SP+.
This is also a tough matchup for a Coastal defense that's allowing opponents to average 8.0 yards per attempt. The Flames are 11th nationally in EPA per pass thanks to Purdie's arm and Jamey Chadwell's system, and they're fifth nationally in available yards percentage (66.2%).
With Purdie at the helm, Liberty should be able to score at least four touchdowns on Coastal, though I wouldn't take the Over here on a number bigger than 27.5.
- Top picks: 7-6, +0.25 units
- Combos: 3-10, -0.67 units
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Liberty -2.5 | Coastal Carolina +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (47%) | Under 48.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Liberty 55% | Coastal Carolina 45%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina weather
There is a 40% chance of rain on a 65-degree night in Conway, S.C. The wind will be blowing sideline-to-sideline at 14 mph, which could complicate matters for the kicking game.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Liberty's last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Find more college football betting trends for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina.
How to watch Liberty vs Coastal Carolina
| Location | Brooks Stadium, Conway, S.C. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
