Kansas State vs Alabama Prediction: Sugar Bowl Odds and Picks

The Sugar Bowl is set for this afternoon when the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) meet No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3). 

Alabama enters this contest riding a three-game winning streak, taking on a Wildcats side that's hoping to continue a four-game winning streak of its own.

Bowl game odds have Alabama laying nearly a touchdown, but can they cover against this Big 12 foe? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Kansas State on December 31. 

Kansas State vs Alabama best odds

Kansas State vs Alabama picks and predictions

The Wildcats may be underdogs, but they are solid on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They are 9-3-1 against the spread, and star running back Deuce Vaughn has rushed for 277 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his last two games. 

Junior quarterback Will Howard has been fantastic in Adrian Martinez’s place, throwing for 1,423 yards with 15 passing TDs and two picks. Martinez's status for Friday is currently up in the air, so the backup may be needed once more. Howard isn’t as mobile as Martinez, but he’s the better passer, and the Wildcats are 5-1 when he's the starter. 

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide can’t be happy. Nick Saban's team feels like they should be in the FBS playoffs, as their two losses were by a combined two points. The transfer portal hit them hard, but the players they’ve lost are the Crimson Tide future, and none of them would’ve played in this game.

Heisman QB Bryce Young finished with another fantastic season for Alabama, passing for 3,007 yards, 25 TD passes, and just five interceptions. Wideouts Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton combined for 1,213 yards and 13 TDs, while running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are big ground threats for a team averaging 40.8 points per game.

This game will likely come down to which defense gets the most stops, which should be the Wildcats. These offenses are used to having their way, but the respective defenses can more than hold their own. Alabama has allowed 90 points over its last five, and K-State has surrendered 123 in that same time frame — but against better competition.

The Wildcats' defense should get one more stop, the offense will continue taking care of business, and they will cover the spread. 

My best bet: Kansas State +6.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)

Kansas State vs Alabama spread analysis

While it isn’t hard to make a case for K-State winning this one straight up, I’m going to wait until the status of Martinez is revealed and bet this game live.

A turnover could easily decide this contest. Alabama is 94th in turnover margin (-0.4), while K-State comes in at fourth-best (+1.1). Alabama is 3-2 straight up against nationally ranked opponents, and the Wildcats are 3-1 versus Top 25 programs.

Additionally, the Crimson Tide are 6-6 ATS, and K-State is 9-3-1 ATS this season. Our Covers Consensus currently shows 65% of the public backing Bama on the spread. 

Kansas State vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

These defenses bend, but they don’t break.

Alabama allows 19.6 points per game, and K-State is 25th in the nation (21.8). The Over is 5-7 over Alabama’s 12 games and is 6-7 for Kansas State.

Saturday marks an incredible challenge for both defenses, but these units are Top-10 in defensive DVOA and will be up for this challenge. This should be a close, tight game between two of the best in the country, and these defenses fully understand they need to have big performances in order to win. 

I am looking forward to a hard-fought, low-scoring affair that ends Under the total. 

In-play microbetting trends for Alabama vs Kansas State

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Alabama

Offensive score Yes: 16/26 (61.5%)
Offensive score No: 10/26 (38.4%)

Punts: 6/26 (23.1%)
TDs: 10/26 (38.4%)
FG attempts: 8/26 (30.7%)
TOs: 2/26 (7.7%)

Alabama had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Kansas State

Offensive score Yes: 10/26 (38.4%)
Offensive score No: 16/26 (61.5%)

Punts: 12/26 (46.1%)
TDs: 8/26 (30.7%)
FG attempts: 2/26 (7.7%)
TOs: 4/26 (15.4%)

Kansas State had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Kansas State vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. Alabama.

Kansas State vs Alabama game info

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