Wednesday’s ReliaQuest Bowl between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Vanderbilt Commodores could be one of the more intriguing matchups outside of the College Football Playoff.
Diego Pavia & Co. will face a stout Hawkeyes defense, but they’ll do so without Eli Stowers. Can Mark Gronowski make enough plays with both his legs and his arms to lead Iowa to a win?
I break it all down in my Iowa vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for the ReliaQuest Bowl below.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt predictions for the ReliaQuest Bowl
Who will win the ReliaQuest Bowl?
Vanderbilt has Diego Pavia, and that will be the key to victory. The Heisman runner-up will make enough plays in crunch time to lead the Commodores to the win.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt best bet: Under 46.5 (-105)
Everyone knows that the Iowa Hawkeyes want to run the ball, drain the clock, and get out of town with the win. The Vanderbilt Commodores may not run it as much, but the mindset is somewhat similar.
Vanderbilt ranks 28th in time of possession this season, despite leading the nation in yards per play. The Commodores rank 118th in plays run this season per game, relying on an offense that moves the chains and kills off the clock.
The Hawkeyes rank 130th in offensive snaps per contest, while still ranking 37th in time of possession. They have one of the most lopsided run rates over expected in college football, but they'll be able to keep drives going against a Vandy defense ranked 92nd in third and fourth-down success.
Iowa’s defense ranks 10th in quality drive rate and 18th in points on those drives. And while the Commodores rank 107th in QDR defensively, they hold teams to just 3.13 points from those possessions.
The absence of Mackey Award winner Eli Stowers for this Vandy offense will likely mean the Hawkeyes can spy a bit on Diego Pavia. That should make getting third-down stops a bit easier.
This game should be a physical, hard-fought contest that could see minimal clock stoppages, and the playstyles of the two teams lend themselves well to this being a low-scoring affair.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
The loss of Stowers is a huge one for the Commodores. He easily led the team in catches and yardage and was the safety blanket over the middle for Pavia.
Cole Spence is more of a blocking tight end, and Brycen Coleman caught just three passes all season. Neither is built to fill his shoes, and it puts added strain on this Vanderbilt offense.
While I think Vanderbilt will still get the win, I don’t see this game being decided by more than three or four points. The Hawkeyes find ways to move the chains on third down, with Mark Gronowski’s legs being a lethal threat.
In addition, the Vanderbilt offense thrives on big plays, but this is an Iowa defense ranked in the Top 10 defensively in explosive play rate, and that will help the Hawkeyes get stops and keep the game close.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Under 46.5
- Iowa +5.5
Iowa vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: Iowa +5.5 | Vanderbilt -5.5
- Moneyline: Iowa +180 | Vanderbilt -220
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Iowa vs Vanderbilt trend to know
Iowa has covered the spread in eight of its last 13 games for +3.64 units and a 26% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Vanderbilt.
How to watch Iowa vs Vanderbilt
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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