One of the best matchups in college football this week takes place in Eugene, where the undefeated Oregon Ducks will play host to the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers in a massive Big Ten battle.
This game is loaded with talented players, including two of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, so you know we’ve got to have some college football player props for it.
But despite this, my Indiana vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks find some value in some unlikely sources.
Indiana vs Oregon props for Week 7
Mendoza o1.5 pass TDs (
Sadiq o3.5 receptions (Prop bet #1: Fernando Mendoza Over 1.5 passing TDs
Fernando Mendoza has skyrocketed up the Heisman Trophy winner odds board this season, leading Indiana to a perfect 5-0 start this season.
And deservedly so. Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards with 16 touchdowns compared to just one interception while completing 73% of his passes.
Saturday’s matchup in Eugene against this Oregon defense will be no joke. But the Hoosiers will do some scoring in this one, and I’m betting that most of that scoring comes through the air.
Mendoza has proven that he can be effective against a strong defense, throwing for 233 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa last time out.
And while the Ducks are very talented defensively, they gave up a big second half to Drew Allar in that win over Penn State, where he threw two fourth-quarter TD passes.
So, I think there are a few paths for Mendoza to go Over 1.5 TD passes on Saturday. A lot of those paths include a good start. Curt Cignetti is one of the best in the business at scripting an opening drive.
And either Indiana keeps this game close thanks to Mendoza’s play, or they have to throw the ball to erase a second-half deficit.
All roads have Mendoza throwing a pair of TD passes on Saturday.
Prop bet #2: Kenyon Sadiq Over 3.5 receptions
Dante Moore and the Oregon offense have gotten off to a flying start this season, but this Indiana defense will be a real test for them this week.
The Hoosiers enter this pivotal Big Ten matchup ranked third in both defensive success rate and opponent EPA per play. That said, you can make the case that Indiana’s defense has not really been tested yet, and it certainly hasn’t come across anything as talented as Moore and the Ducks.
Moore is also a legitimate Heisman contender, throwing for 1,210 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one pick. He has a great top wideout in Dakorien Moore, but some have wondered if the Ducks need more reliable pass-catching options behind him.
Well, I think they have one emerging in tight end Kenyon Sadiq. The junior is an explosive athlete, particularly at tight end, and Moore is starting to figure that out.
Sadiq has been targeted 15 times over the Ducks’ last two games, with him catching 10 of them for 109 yards and a score.
With the way that Indiana likes to blitz, Sadiq should be able to find some space over the middle in this one, allowing Moore to lean on him in this matchup. I love the Over 3.5 receptions for Sadiq this week.
Prop bet #3: Jordon Davison anytime TD
In a game with a bunch of star power, let’s take a look at a not-so-obvious candidate to find the end zone in what should be an exciting matchup in Eugene on Saturday.
And by not-so-obvious, I mean the Ducks’ goal-line back who has already scored seven touchdowns this season, but somehow still has great value to score number eight this weekend.
That is, of course, Jordon Davison. The true freshman is built like a truck, standing at 6-foot and 236 lbs. Davison only has 23 carries this season, but he’s made the most of those attempts, scoring on seven of them.
Indiana has a good defense, but if Oregon can move the ball into the red zone, its best bet to punch it across the goal line might be to give it to Davison, who has scored in every game this season.
Yet oddsmakers are still giving us better than 2/1 to back Davison to score this week. That’s more than good enough for me.
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