With only seven Power Four programs taking the field in Week 0, the Heisman Trophy race doesn't truly begin until this week, but one player who didn't even take the field still stood out as the best addition to my Heisman Hedge Fund ahead of Week 1.
The Heisman Trophy odds continue to be led by Notre Dame's CJ Carr; however, a quarterback in the same state is my favorite buy this week, and my strongest sell is an SEC signal caller with plenty of NFL draft buzz.
Heisman Trophy odds
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With both Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Texas' Arch Manning not seeing any movement on their Heisman Trophy odds, the biggest change up top is the continued rise of Miami's Darian Mensah. Although he doesn't have the same 2027 NFL Draft odds as Manning and Carr, he is, like them, the star QB for a legitimate college football national championship odds favorite.
Mensah being among the favorites is justified after he finished Top 20 nationally in big-time throws (28) and QBR (76.6) last season at Duke, but I'm still in wait-and-see mode with Mario Cristobal's new QB. Miami is 85th in the country in returning offensive production (48%) and inserting four new full-time starters on the offensive line.
Let's see how Mensah acclimates in Coral Gables before buying him.
Week 1 Heisman portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Buy | 5% | Yes (5¢) |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Sell | 3% | No (98¢) |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Hold | 9% | Yes (purchase price: 6¢) |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Penny stock | 2% | Yes (2¢) |
Buy: Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2025 stats: 3,472 passing yards, 31 total TDs, 13 INTs
- Key metric: 11th in the Power Four in big-time throws (24)
- Week 1 opponent: vs. North Texas (Sept. 5/noon ET)
The biggest takeaway from Week 0 is that the hype around new TCU QB Jaden Craig may not have been justified. The Harvard transfer was a mess against North Carolina, accounting for three turnover-worthy plays, zero touchdowns, and a 33.3% pressure-to-sack rate.
Against Bill Belichick's program last year, TCU's starting QB at the time threw for 284 yards, committed zero turnover-worthy plays, took zero sacks, and put up an 80% adjusted completion rate. That QB was Josh Hoover, who's not suiting up for the defending national champions in Bloomington.
Despite being the starting QB for an Indiana offense projected by SP+ to rank among the top 10, with two potential first-round wide receivers and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, Hoover is priced behind six other quarterbacks.
The past two seasons with the Horned Frogs, Hoover accounted for 62 total touchdowns, and now he has Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh to throw to in a Mike Shanahan offense that helped Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman and become the No. 1 pick.
Buy Hoover before he pads his stats over the first five games against far lesser competition.
Sell: LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2025 stats: 2,437 passing yards, 18 total TDs, 8 INTs
- Key metric: 65th nationally in QBR (61.0)
- Week 1 opponent: vs. Kent State (Sept. 5/12:45 p.m. ET)
It's tough to gauge what LaNorris Sellers will look like this season at South Carolina. The Gamecocks' QB has Top 10-pick flashes and other moments where he looks like too much of a project to justify using a premium NFL draft pick on him.
But because of the physical tools (No. 37 on the Freaks List), NFL draft buzz, and highlight-reel plays, Sellers is being priced similarly to quarterbacks on teams competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The roster is full of talent, but South Carolina's win total is set at 6.5, and I would take the Under. To rub salt in the wound, two of South Carolina's potential first-round picks (Dylan Stewart and Jacarrius Peak) are dealing with injuries that could cost them time.
So even if Sellers doubles last year's touchdown production, that won't be enough for him to win the Heisman for a team that could end up going 6-6 and firing Shane Beamer.
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Hold: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
- Kalshi probability: 9%
- 2025 stats: 3,565 passing yards, 32 total TDs, 10 INTs
- Key metric: 4th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (80.3%)
- Week 1 opponent: vs. Boise State (Sept. 5/3:30 p.m. ET)
When I built my initial Heisman Hedge Fund portfolio last week ahead of Week 0, I bought Dante Moore for a few reasons, but none bigger than the fact that he was being priced behind six other quarterbacks.
That didn't make any sense, with the Oregon star being the most proven QB in the country on a title contender after being one of only three P4 QBs to put up an adjusted completion percentage of at least 80% (min. 300 dropbacks), and the only one of those three to have a big-time throw rate better than 6%.
The market has already corrected Moore's low-ball price, too. Despite the Ducks not playing in Week 0, he's already risen from a 6% probability of winning the Heisman to a 9% probability at Kalshi.
The Ducks are my pick to win the national championship this year, too, and our very own Jon Metler expects Moore to get off to a hot start against Boise State, so he should continue to climb the board.
Penny stock: Will Hammond, QB, Texas Tech
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- 2025 stats: 680 passing yards, 12 total TDs, 3 INTs
- Key metric: 5.3% big-time throw rate
- Week 1 opponent: vs. Abilene Christian (Sept. 5/7 p.m. ET)
No Brendan Sorsby? No problem. After tearing his ACL last season, Texas Tech has cleared Will Hammond for Week 1. He steps in as the QB1 for the most talented team in the Big 12 and should even be an improvement over last year's starting quarterback, Behren Morton, who the New England Patriots drafted.
In limited opportunities last year, Hammond looked like the future in Lubbock, especially when he lit up an undefeated Utah team on the road in relief of an injured Morton. Hammond had a 93.8% adjusted completion percentage and an 18.8% big-time throw rate in the 34-10 win.
Texas Tech added a plethora of talented wide receivers in the transfer portal, including Kenny Johnson (Pittsburgh), to group with last year's starting slot, Coy Eakin, and former five-star recruit Micah Hudson. And it doesn't hurt that Hammond will be behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.
The plan was for Hammond to sit one more year behind Sorsby as he recovered from the torn ACL, but the future is now, and he has the talent around him to thrive as a dark-horse Heisman contender.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith remains the shining star of my Heisman portfolio heading into the season, and his price has already risen over the last week. Smith is the best player in the country and my top pick to win the award this year.
However, with just four wide receivers winning the Heisman since 1987, I've focused on loading up on different flavors of QBs to fill out the rest of my portfolio. Keelon Russell is a five-star talent in a QB-friendly offense at one of the biggest brands in the country; Moore is the highest-floor QB in college football; and Hoover joins an offense that's already produced a Heisman winner.
The three penny stock plays in my portfolio back young QBs who have different reasons their prices are low, despite being projected for big statistical seasons. Drew Mestemaker is making the move from the Group of Six to the Power Four; Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has a new coaching staff; and Hammond is a first-year starter coming off a torn ACL.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/7¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/4¢ |
| Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/8¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/5¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/89¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/97¢ |
| LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/98¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
| Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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