The Georgia Bulldogs are two-time reigning National Champions and have won 27 consecutive football games, but this is just the first week of the season where they're college football's No. 1-ranked team — at least according to the CFP Committee.
The Bulldogs are coming off a massive beatdown of Mississippi and now trek to Knoxville this afternoon to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols have struggled against elite foes this year, so it’s no surprise to see college football odds housing them as double-digit dogs.
Can they keep this SEC East clash close, or even do the unthinkable and score a victory over the Dawgs for the first time since 2016? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my free college football picks for Georgia vs. Tennessee on November 18.
Georgia vs Tennessee best odds
Georgia vs Tennessee picks and predictions
Much of the narrative around the Georgia Bulldogs this season (myself included) — despite the fact they hadn’t lost a game — has been that this team isn’t on the same level as the last two National Championship-winning squads.
Could Carson Beck step in Stetson Bennett’s shoes? And could the defense live up to the lofty standards set by their predecessors?
However, after a couple of solid wins, including a 52-17 beatdown of No. 10 Mississippi last week, it feels like that narrative has been put to bed. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee agrees, with Georgia sitting on top of the rankings for the first time all season.
Next up: a trip to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers, a team coming off a humbling 36-7 loss at the hands of a very good Missouri squad.
Now, the Vols have been a much better team this season when playing at Neyland Stadium, but the competition there has been sub-par at best. And in losses to Mizzou, Alabama, and Florida, their flaws have really been exposed.
Tennessee struggled to run the ball in those three losses and now, they face a Georgia defense that's allowing just 3.7 yards per carry this season. On top of that, relying on Joe Milton’s arm has not been a recipe for success this season.
The Vols’ quarterback has battled his accuracy this season and it's cost his team in their biggest games. Milton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt during Tennessee’s three losses this season.
Then there is the matter of stopping Georgia’s offense. While Tennessee has some solid numbers overall, those numbers may be inflated against some softer competition.
Even so, they're allowing opponents to complete a lot of passes, ranking 122nd in opponent completion percentage. In their last two losses, Alabama and Mizzou didn’t have a whole lot of trouble moving the football, and the Bulldogs might be the best offense the Vols have seen yet.
Carson Beck is looking better each time he takes the field and with Brock Bowers back, the Dawgs look even more formidable. Those two give the Bulldogs a passing game that matches the rushing attack. Overall, Georgia enters this game ranking fifth in yards per play, 11th in yards per rush, and 12th in yards per pass.
Tennessee might be able to keep this close for a bit thanks to playing at home, but at the end of the day, Milton will make too many mistakes in this matchup and Georgia will take advantage. Expect the Bulldogs to pull away in the second half, covering the 10-point chalk in the process.
My best bet: Georgia -10 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Georgia vs Tennessee same-game parlay
As always, our same-game parlay kicks off with my best bet, which for this SEC clash is Georgia to cover as 10-point favorites. But let’s play it a little safer here and take the alt spread of Georgia -9.5.
Part of the reason I like laying the points with Georgia here is because I believe Joe Milton will be overmatched by this Georgia defense. The Dawgs are a really physical team in the trenches and are good enough to shut down a solid Vols’ run game. That means scoring won't come easy for Tennessee.
The Volunteers have averaged just 14.3 points in their three losses. So, when I see their team total sitting at 23.5 points, the Under certainly feels like the right side.
And let’s close this SGP out by highlighting Brock Bowers. The future first-round NFL Draft pick came back from his ankle injury much faster than expected and the impact on the field was immediate.
Not only does he open things up for his teammates but he immediately found the end zone in the win over Mississippi. I’m betting he does again against a suspect Tennessee secondary.
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Georgia vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
Georgia opened this SEC matchup as a 10-point favorite and the No. 1-ranked team in the country has seen the very early money with some 10.5s starting to pop up across the market.
My gut says the line is only this low because the Volunteers are playing at home and the Bulldogs haven’t been a great bet this season at 4-6 ATS, but considering the way Georgia is peaking at the right time and how Tennessee’s struggles have been amplified vs. better teams, this number feels too low.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 59.5 and has been bet down to 58.5 as of Wednesday night. Though I believe Tennessee will have trouble scoring, that doesn’t necessarily mean I'd lean toward the Under.
The Bulldogs offense is starting to roll and now has Brock Bowers back. They've put up at least 37 points in four of their last five games and are more than capable of doing most of the work to send this one Over.
That's exactly what we saw last week vs. Mississippi. For that reason, I’m staying away from the total here.
Georgia vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Georgia has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings vs. Tennessee. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Tennessee.
Georgia vs Tennessee game info
|Location:||Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN|
|Date:||Saturday, November 18, 2023|
|Kickoff:||3:30 p.m. ET|
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