2026 American Conference Win Totals: Odds, Best Bets & Conference Predictions

Team	Win total	Best bet	Odds
Memphis	7.5	Over	-105
UTSA	7.5	Over	-125
North Texas	5.5	Under	+110
South Florida	8.5	Under	-139

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Favorite American Conference Over win total bets

Memphis Over 7.5 wins (-105)

There isn't a better Group of 6 coach at using the transfer portal to raise a team's floor than Charles Huff.

Two years ago, he won the Sun Belt title at Marshall. When the program opted to go in another direction, he said "bet" and took all of the Thundering Herd's best players with him to a Southern Miss program that had gone 4-20 in the two seasons before Huff showed up. Huff won seven games in his lone year with the Golden Eagles.

Now he's doing it all again at one of the most well-resourced programs in the G6, Memphis. Since 2014, Memphis has won 8-plus regular-season games 10 times under three different head coaches. And there's a strong argument to be made that Huff is a better head coach than Ryan Silverfield, who just left the Tigers for Arkansas.

Huff brings in the No. 2 transfer portal class in the conference, with three of his best players at Southern Miss in J'Mond Tapp, Ian Foster, and Tychaun Chapman leading the way. He also added several former blue-chip recruits via Power 4 schools and a pair of talented QBs in Marcus Stokes (West Florida) and Air Noland (South Carolina).

While the non-conference schedule features two premier G6 teams (UNLV, Boise State), Memphis should be favored in at least eight of its other games.

UTSA Over 7.5 wins (-125)

Of the eight teams in the American Conference that reached bowl eligibility last season, just two return both their head coach and starting QB in Army and UTSA.

Both Jeff Traylor and Owen McCown being back gives the Road Runners a major leg up in a conference full of so much change. McCown is among the most proven QBs in the G6 after throwing for 30 TDs and putting up a 76.8% adjusted completion percentage in his second year starting for Traylor in 2025.

Even with a new offensive coordinator in Rick Bowie, UTSA should field one of the top offenses in the G6. The Road Runners rank top 30 in returning offensive production (64%), and alongside McCown, they bring back budding star running back Will Henderson III.

With experienced pass-catchers around McCown and Henderson, the offense can make up for a middling defense and help Traylor win 8-plus regular-season games for the fourth time since taking over in San Antonio.

Favorite American Conference Under win total bets

North Texas Under 5.5 wins (+110)

Everything from the North Texas team that produced one of the greatest G6 offenses of all time is gone. Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, Wyatt Young, and several other starters are in Stillwater, set to turn around Oklahoma State (the Pokes are Brad Powers' most improved team in college football).

And while new head coach Neal Brown boasts a proven track record of success at the G6 level, he's inheriting a team that's No. 132 in returning production (32%). Brown's squad is betting on a QB with a career 7-9 record at his fourth school, Tayven Jackson, and a running back coming off a season-ending injury in Jahiem White.

North Texas is among the nation's most portal-reliant teams, with as many as 20 transfers expected to start. That lack of continuity could be a killer for a program that's won 6-plus games just seven times in the last 21 years. There's a reason this squad is among Powers' least improved teams in college football.

It doesn't help that the Mean Green play a loaded non-conference schedule headlined by an Indiana team that's among the favorites in the college football national championship odds.

South Florida Under 8.5 wins (-139)

Much like North Texas, pretty much everything from last season's South Florida team is gone. With all its star power, that team won nine regular-season games. So, why is this line set at 8.5 after the school lost head coach Alex Golesh, superstar QB Byrum Brown, and its top three weapons to Auburn?

While new head coach Brian Hartline put together the best transfer portal class in the conference, the Bulls' returning production ranks 113th in the country (41%), and they're expected to start 8-plus transfers on each side of the ball.

Unless LSU transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. is as good as Brown, the receivers hit in a big way, and P4 burnouts like CJ Hicks finally break out, it's hard to imagine USF matching last season's regular-season win total.

Before last year, South Florida hadn't won 9-plus games since 2017. And while the Bulls are headed in the right direction with how much money they're pouring into resources, they've only won 9-plus games three times in their 13 years as a member of the American Conference.

Complete 2026 American Conference win totals & picks for every team

Team	Win total	Best bet	Odds
Army	7.5	Over	-125
Charlotte	2.5	Under	-143
East Carolina	7.5	Over	+125
Florida Atlantic	5.5	Over	-160
Memphis	7.5	Over	-105
Navy	7.5	Over	-160
North Texas	5.5	Under	+110
Rice	3.5	Under	-105
South Florida	8.5	Under	-139
Temple	5.5	Over	-110
Tulane	7.5	Under	-143
Tulsa	5.5	Over	-125
UAB	3.5	Under	+100
UTSA	7.5	Over	-125

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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