Last season, Conference USA was one of the most unpredictable conferences in the country, with Kennesaw State going 10-4 on its way to taking home the CUSA title.
This year, while my 2026 Conference USA win total predictions project the Owls to exceed expectations once again, my college football picks expect a major bounce-back from the program that's supposed to own the CUSA every year.
2026 Conference USA win totals: Best bets
Here are my favorite Conference USA win total bets for the 2026 season. Looking for another school? Find my complete win total picks for all 10 teams at the bottom of the page.
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kennesaw State |
6.5 | Over | +105 |
 Liberty |
8.5 | Over | +110 |
 New Mexico State |
4.5 | Under | -115 |
 Sam Houston |
3.5 | Under | -149 |
Favorite Conference USA Over win total bets
Kennesaw State Over 6.5 wins (+105)
In Kennesaw State's first season as an FBS program in 2024, it went 2-10 and fired Brian Bohannon, the man who turned the Owls into a winner at the FCS level. It was a head-scratcher, but then Jerry Mack came in, and it immediately paid off.
Mack did as good a coaching job last season as anyone in the sport not named Curt Cignetti, and while another CUSA title is unlikely, the Owls are poised to be one of the toughest teams in the conference.
Kennesaw State brings in the No. 3 transfer portal class in Conference USA, and though it loses star QB Amari Odom to Syracuse, it adds former blue-chip Rickie Collins from the Orange as his replacement.
Collins has the talent to thrive in the CUSA, especially with the offensive line and playmakers around him. West Georgia transfer Latrelle Murrell should be among the best running backs in the conference, and Northern Colorado transfer Brayden Munroe will be a mismatch nightmare at receiver.
But it's the defense — No. 51 nationally in returning production (55%) — led by preseason CUSA Defensive Player of the Year Baron Hopson, and the schedule — No. 114 in SOS (.477) — that should help the Owls fly to seven wins again.
Liberty Over 8.5 wins (+110)
No program in Conference USA has anywhere near the money and resources that Liberty does, which is why last year's 4-8 campaign was such a shock.
Before last season, Jamey Chadwell was 21-5 as the Flames' head coach, and the program had reached a bowl game in six straight seasons.
Learning that Chadwell dealt with a serious medical condition last season before surgery in January helped explain why Liberty didn't live up to their odds as the Conference USA favorite in 2025.
With Chadwell saying, "I feel physically probably the best I've felt since '23," at Conference USA's media day, the Flames are once again in good shape to be the scariest team in the conference.
Liberty has the No. 2 transfer portal class in the CUSA, highlighted by QB Jaylen Henderson (West Virginia) and running backs Kam Davis (Florida State) and Kanye Udoh (Arizona State).
Those three should shine in Chadwell's spread-option offense, which also returns one of the best O-lines in the conference. And the defense is poised to improve, too, with Brenton Williams back and major transfers in the secondary, including D-Icey Hopkins (Georgia State).
Brad Powers is also buying Liberty returning to prominence, with the Flames making the College Football Playoff among his favorite college football long-shot futures for 2026.
Favorite Conference USA Under win total bets
New Mexico State Under 4.5 wins (-115)
Since 1979, New Mexico State has won at least five games just nine times. In the last 21 years, the Aggies have had more seasons with win percentages below .200 (six) than bowl appearances (three).
This is one of the worst programs in college football, and the only time it wasn't was the two years Diego Pavia and Jerry Kill were in Las Cruces. Since those two left for Vanderbilt, New Mexico State is 7-17 under Tony Sanchez.
Sanchez has won four or more games once in eight seasons as a head coach, with his 5-7 UNLV team in 2017 being his best. There's no reason to believe anything will change for the Aggies this season.
New Mexico State has one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the CUSA (Florida State, Hawaii, New Mexico) and added very little in terms of reinforcements, with a transfer portal class ranked 116th nationally.
Furman transfer Trey Hedden, who accounted for as many turnover-worthy plays as TD passes in two years with the Paladins (30), would need to be a Pavia-level game-changer for the Aggies to win five games.
Sam Houston Under 3.5 wins (-149)
Hiring a freshly fired coordinator as head coach is going as well as you might expect for Sam Houston. Phil Longo was an all-time bad hire, and it doesn't look like he'll be turning around the Bearkats anytime soon.
After last year's 2-10 campaign, Longo is portaling an entirely new offensive line in hopes of getting more out of his offense, but an O-line with no chemistry is a death knell. And with Landyn Locke back behind center, it's hard to believe in Longo's Air Raid system.
Locke had the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the country last season among players with 150+ dropbacks (6.2%), and his defense couldn't bail him out. The Bearkats had arguably the worst defense in college football last year.
Sam Houston also won't get any reprieve with its schedule. It has Troy, Tulsa, and Texas Tech in non-conference play and takes on the CUSA's four best in conference play (Liberty, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State).
Complete 2026 Conference USA win totals & picks for every team
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 Delaware |
6.5 | Over | +130 |
 Florida International |
6.5 | Under | -150 |
 Jacksonville State |
7.5 | Over | +105 |
| Kennesaw State |
6.5 | Over | +105 |
| Liberty |
8.5 | Over | +110 |
 Middle Tennessee |
3.5 | Under | +125 |
 Missouri State |
4.5 | Under | -170 |
| New Mexico State |
4.5 | Under | -115 |
| Sam Houston |
3.5 | Under | -149 |
 Western Kentucky |
7.5 | Over | +125 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
