The theme of Week 5's Friday night college football slate is James Franklin, with his Virginia Tech team playing its biggest game of the season so far, and his former program in desperate need of a bounce-back performance.
The Hokies and Nittany Lions lead our Week 5 Friday night football picks, but my college football picks are also all in on Liberty in the only Group of Six matchup for Oct. 2.
Week 5 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Pittsburghvs  Virginia Tech |
ML |
56% |
 Libertyvs  Delaware |
-7.5 |
45% |
 Penn Statevs  Northwestern |
-2.5 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech moneyline
This is Pittsburgh's first road game of the season, and I do not envy Pat Narduzzi's team. It's never easy to play in Blacksburg, Va., on a Friday night, but that's especially true when Virginia Tech fans have hope.
When Enter Sandman starts playing, this crowd will be on another level (I would take Tech to cover up to -2.5, but prefer to play it safe with the moneyline).
James Franklin has quickly turned the Hokies around with several transfers he brought from Penn State. Virginia Tech is 3-1 ATS with former Nittany Lions like Ethan Grunkemeyer (81.4 QBR), Luke Reynolds (four TDs), and Cortez Harris (five sacks) starring.
Tech's defense is no joke, leading the country in havoc rate (26.7%). Meanwhile, Pitt's offense has been propped up by its level of competition, with QB Mason Heintschel accounting for all 13 of his TD passes against Miami (OH) and Bucknell while posting QBRs below 50 against UCF and Syracuse.
Pitt might want to say its prayers because Franklin and the Hokies are about to send the Panthers off to never-never land.
Liberty vs Delaware: Liberty -7.5
Delaware is not catching Liberty at an ideal time. The Blue Hens are not expected to have their best player, starting QB Nick Miniccuci, who exited last week's loss to Virginia with a knee injury. Without Miniccuci, Delaware's backup QBs were 3-for-19 for 47 yards with two interceptions last week.
That's not going to cut it against a Liberty defense that ranks 26th nationally in defensive success rate (39%). The Flames also figured things out offensively last week against Coastal Carolina, which is why I like them to cover up to -9.
The QB-running back-wide receiver trio of Deshawn Purdie, Kam Davis, and Makai Jackson is arguably the best in Conference USA, and they have Liberty's offense ranking 14th in the country in net EPA per play. Delaware's defense is bound to crack with no support from its offense.
Penn State vs Northwestern: Penn State -2.5
Both teams suffered tough losses under very different circumstances last week. Penn State blew a 17-0 lead to lose to Wisconsin 24-20, while Northwestern came back from down 12-0 at halftime against defending champion Indiana and came within an onside kick recovery of a potential upset.
But if Indiana QB Josh Hoover hadn't consistently missed wide-open Charlie Becker, the Wildcats probably would have lost by multiple scores. Meanwhile, Matt Campbell should have Penn State motivated to get back on track.
This Northwestern defense isn't nearly as strong as Wisconsin's either, ranking 88th in available yards percentage (50.7%), and the Wildcats' offense doesn't match up well with the Nittany Lions. Penn State's defense leads the country in EPA per pass and sits No. 3 in third/fourth down success (26.7%).
If Penn State can force Aidan Chiles into mistakes, it can win this game by well over a field goal (I like the Nittany Lions up to -5.5). Northwestern will also likely be without tight end Luke Dehnicke (doubtful), who was the Wildcats' best player against Indiana.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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