Florida vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators on the Prowl in Texas

Florida and Texas A&M are both struggling this season, but there's at least reason for optimism with the Gators. Our college football picks are backing them to run all over the Aggies' D in Week 10.

Nov 5, 2022 • 08:02 ET • 4 min read
Anthony Richardson Florida Gators
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Texas A&M Aggies and Florida Gators meet in one of the more interesting college football odds matchups of the week.

Things are bad in College Station for Texas A&M right now. The Aggies have easily failed to meet their lofty preseason expectations as they set a record of 3-5. There have been plenty of suggestions for firing Head Coach Jimbo Fisher and as many suggestions that wonder if they can afford to do so. 

For Florida, things are calmer. The Gators have had an up-and-down season under first-year coach Billy Nappier. They will come into this one off an expected loss to Georgia, but it was a game in which the Gators competed.

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Florida.

Florida vs Texas A&M best odds

Florida vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

We can get to the numbers in a moment, which reveal a strong Florida advantage, but this pick is just as much about everything else. The Aggies are in a very bad place right now. Players are suspended left and right as they've fallen woefully short of their preseason aspirations, including a Top-10 ranking. 

The vibes around the program are terrible. Meanwhile, although Florida is losing its fair share of games, there is a degree of optimism within the program. They are riding a two-game losing streak, but they are competing. So much of wagering on college athletics is about the spot. This one is much more in favor of the Gators. 

Now for the matchup specifics. Anthony Richardson presents many problems for opposing defenses, but it's a more significant issue for Texas A&M than most. The Aggies now rank second-to-last in the SEC in rushing yards per game. They are only ahead of Auburn, who recently fired its head coach. In particular, quarterbacks have given issues on the ground. A week ago, QB Jaxson Dart rushed for 95 yards on 17 carries against them. 

The bad news for the Aggies is Richardson is the most dynamic runner they've faced at the QB spot. He's on pace to become a 1,000-yard rusher, but his dynamism is best measured in his considerable play ability, namely his three runs of over 40 yards which rank second-best in the ACC. Focusing on one specific player in a handicap can be a dangerous approach. However, A&M can't match how much of a game-breaker Richardson is.

The other side of this matchup is the Florida defense against a pretty unknown Texas A&M offense. The Gator defense has been an issue throughout the season, and I say unknown regarding the Aggies because we still don't know what freshman QB Conner Weigman is. He threw over 300 yards and two touchdowns against Mississippi last week.

The early returns are good, but can you continue that success when some film is there? A&M should have some reasonable success against the leaky Florida secondary, but they can stiffen in the red zone. Florida has forced a field goal instead of a touchdown at a slightly above-average rate, and A&M’s red-zone offense has slowly declined as the season has progressed.

Ultimately, this comes down to a battle of weaknesses and one team winning that battle. I trust Florida's rushing game more than Texas A&M's passing game. Florida is 4-0 when it runs for over 210 yards and 0-4 when it doesn’t, a clear opposition weakness for them to expose here.

I cannot back Texas A&M right now — I'm taking the Gators outright to spring a slight upset.

My best bet: Florida moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Best college football bonuses

Looking to bet on some college football action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.

Florida vs Texas A&M spread analysis

I'm backing Florida to win this game. The situations surrounding each program aren't exactly ideal, but one team still looks like it's a believer in its coach, while the other appears to have given up on theirs. That's part of my handicap as much as anything else. Florida needs to show it can win on the road, but it's only played Tennessee and Georgia, which isn't the easiest competition. 

November has been a bugaboo for Florida of late, where the Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. That trend meets another horrid one for Texas A&M, who is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when allowing 200 or more rushing yards in the previous game. One of these has to give in this matchup. 

This spread has moved minimally throughout the week. It opened at 4 and bounced around until settling at 3.5, where it is now. Per our Covers Consensus page, tickets are split 50/50 between the two teams.

Florida vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis

I'm still determining if I'll have a pregame side here, but I lean to the Under. Florida will try to run the ball as much as possible, keeping the clock ticking. Since I believe they are the ones that will be controlling the game, the Under is where things will trend. If we can get some early scoring in this one, I'd love a live look at the total. But again, I am still deciding if I'll have a pregame wager on it.

Florida has been a huge Under team in 2022. The Under is 4-0 in its last four games on the road against a team with a losing record, and it's 5-1 overall following an ATS win. It's been a similar story for the Aggies as well. The total has gone Under in five of their last six home games. The total in this matchup opened at 56 and has trended in one direction. It’s now at around 53.5 for most books, which signals a sharp buy on a low-scoring affair. 

Florida vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Florida's last four games on the road against a team with a losing record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. Texas A&M.

Florida vs Texas A&M game info

Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Florida vs Texas A&M latest injuries

Florida vs Texas A&M weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo