Friday night should deliver an entertaining showdown as the Florida International Panthers take on the UTSA Roadrunners in the First Responder Bowl.
FIU is appearing in its first bowl game in six years — and just the sixth since the program began in 2002 — but securing only its third bowl win won’t come easy against this explosive Roadrunners offense.
See why I like the Roadrunners to get the job done in my Florida International vs. UTSA predictions and college football picks for December 26!
FIU vs UTSA predictions for the First Responder Bowl
Who will win the First Responder Bowl?
UTSA is the better team, with the better quarterback and the more effective defense. The Roadrunners will utilize their ground game and limit FIU’s scoring opportunities en route to a win.
FIU vs UTSA best bet: UTSA -5.5
It makes sense to look at the 7-5 record for the Florida International Panthers, compared to the UTSA Roadrunners' mark of 6-6, and assume they might be a bit better.
However, according to Jeff Sagarin, the Panthers played a weaker strength of schedule this season than Illinois State and North Dakota.
And if you’re thinking neither of those is an FBS school, then you’d be correct.
Despite facing such a weak schedule, the Panthers rank 104th in offensive EPA, 103rd in rushing success, and 105th in rushing defense success rate. They also allow 3.77 points per quality drive, ranking 94th in FBS.
That’s what happens when you get dominated at the line of scrimmage on defense. The Panthers allow the third-most yards before contact of any FBS team, giving up 2.87 line yards. They also generate little pressure without blitzing heavily.
That’s great news for a UTSA offensive line that ranks 29th in line yards and 34th in pressure rate allowed. Their backs also rank 20th in yards after contact in the ground game, which is why they’re 43rd in EPA/rush.
Owen McCown is the better quarterback in this game, and he threw for 370 yards and four touchdowns as he led the Roadrunners to an upset win over Tulane. That’s by far a better win than any FIU posted this season.
The FIU defense ranks in the 100s in explosive run rate allowed, early down EPA, and stuff rate. Its offense posts very few explosive pass plays, struggles on third down, and is among the most penalized in college football.
UTSA played a tougher schedule, and yet still posted far better metrics on offense and defense. I’ll take the team with the better roster, even with some defections, laying less than a touchdown.
FIU vs UTSA same-game parlay
The UTSA offense can put up explosive plays, especially against this FIU defense. It’s a big reason why the Over is 6-1 in the last seven games for the Roadrunners as they’ve averaged 37 points over that span.
And while FIU’s not as good as UTSA, that’s not to say the Panthers won’t light up the scoreboard themselves. The Over has cashed in three of their last four as they’ve scored 34+ in all three of those contests.
As good as UTSA plays on the whole, the Roadrunners have allowed 34 plays of at least 30 yards this season. FIU has shown an ability to hit big runs, despite the iffy line play, and USF rushed for 7.4 yards a pop against UTSA earlier this season.
It might take some garbage-time offense, but even at 59.5, I think the total is a bit lower than it should be.
FIU vs UTSA SGP
- UTSA -5.5
- Over 59.5
FIU vs UTSA game predictions
FIU vs UTSA spread prediction
I'm happy to lay the number with UTSA at anything below a touchdown.
FIU vs UTSA Over/Under prediction
Explosive plays will be the key to this going Over the 59.5-point total. FIU will do more than enough to contribute despite my lean on UTSA.
FIU vs UTSA odds
- Spread: FIU +5.5 | UTSA -5.5
- Moneyline: FIU +200 | UTSA -250
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
FIU vs UTSA trend to know
UTSA has cashed the first-half Over in six of their last seven games for +4.90 units and a 62% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for FIU vs UTSA.
How to watch FIU vs UTSA
| Location | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Friday, December 26, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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