Every week, I spend about an hour on Friday afternoon discussing the weekend’s slate with a friend who, fortunately, has a sharp mind for college football.
It serves as a nice cap to the week, a chance to be sure I have not missed anything in preparation for the weekend.
Our conversation was shorter than usual this Friday. Maybe I am not the only one looking at Week 3 with less intrigue than usual.
That is more a football thought than a gambling thought; there are no massive rivalry matchups like Iowa vs. Iowa State, and there does not seem to be an expected chance to learn something like, “Just how bad is Michigan’s passing defense if New Mexico found relative success against it?”
We expressed shared interest in exactly two underdogs this weekend, one of them being New Mexico in a late Friday night spot, the other mentioned in Bonus Bet No. 1 below.
That is not “exactly two underdogs this weekend” to win outright. That is against the spread. My college football picks simply were not as intrigued by as many games as usual this weekend.
Be warned. Underdogs will cover. Probably about half of them. And be warned, this kind of thinking about a weekend usually precedes an absolutely chaotic weekend.
Georgia Tech (+3.5 at FanDuel, +122 moneyline) over Clemson is not the kind of chaos that would meet this wonder.
No, but Temple over Oklahoma would. Oregon State (+23.5, +1160) topping Texas Tech on the road would change the summer’s best narrative.
Arkansas State (+21.5, +1100) upsetting Iowa State would both ruin the Big 12’s weekend and boost the SEC’s.
And then there is the South Florida possibility …
Be warned. This quite often precedes a storm. One might say this is the calm eye of a … [dons sunglasses] … Hurricane.
College football Week 3 preview and betting news
- So, South Florida, huh?
- No, Really, South Florida, Huh?
- Bonus Bet No. 1.
- Be Warned.
- Bonus Bet No. 2
So, South Florida, huh?
Do the South Florida Bulls need to upset the Miami Hurricanes in order to make the College Football Playoff?
Absolutely not. They do not even need to keep this close.
That is, in part, because South Florida so demolished Boise State to open the season that the outside perception of the entire Mountain West took a beating, as well.
For context, realize extending the AP Top 25 another 10 spots would still not include another Group of Five team, while the Bulls sit at No. 18.
No other Group of Five team is going to notch a win as impressive as winning at Florida, unless South Florida upsets Miami.
College football fans must hope Bulls head coach Alex Golesh emphasizes to his team that it has nothing to lose in this matchup. As a 17.5-point underdog, South Florida could play this close to the vest to lose by only two touchdowns and consider that further validation of its Playoff contender status.
But this week’s quiet plea for the Bulls to stay true to their roots, play up tempo, chuck the ball around, and risk a 30-point loss for the possible reward of an upset. The chaos is always worth the risk.
Risk it, Golesh. Risk it, Bulls. Please. Give Mario Cristobal a math problem.
No, Really, South Florida, Huh?
Just to emphasize how made in the shade life should be for South Florida after upsetting both Boise State and Florida to start the season, realize what remains ahead of the Bulls after this trip to Miami.
South Florida should be favored in every remaining game, with the possible exception of at Memphis on Oct. 25.
Four of the Bulls’ remaining nine opponents are ranked No. 100 or lower in the most recent SP+ ratings from ESPN.com.
Upsets happen. That is the entire premise of looking at this weekend from a new angle.
But everything and more should still be ahead of the Bulls.
College Football Week 3 Preview with Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley https://t.co/59HRNMjZXN
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 10, 2025
Bonus Bet No. 1.
No, this is not a bet on South Florida. A three-score spread is just too hefty to lean into an underdog based on variance.
But for the sake of finding a moneyline underdog to believe in, let’s talk about Southern Mississippi.
The Golden Eagles should not be home underdogs to Appalachian State. It is that simple.
No, Southern Miss did not play well against Mississippi State in Week 1. That 34-17 loss was more genuinely 34-10, and the Eagles were outgained by 164 yards.
Yet, this line still forgets that Charles Huff brought a significant portion of a Sun Belt-winning caliber roster with him from Marshall.
Appalachian State very much does not have such a roster.
This line is trusting the numbers too much, an increasingly failing strategy as advanced metrics continue to catch up to the perks of modern college football.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Southern Mississippi moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)🏈
Be Warned.
For the second time in three weeks, let’s run directly against sportsbooks’ wishes and remind you not to force your action.
Underdog parlays and round robins are some of the most popular college football bets. And they can be a lot of fun.
However, if you do not see underdogs you genuinely believe in, do not force those moments of joy. Even in a weekend with some portent looming, you have to accurately expect the unexpected to profit.
If you do not genuinely believe in the bet, do not force it.
Take that spending and buy yourself and a friend a beer. If your usual gambling unit is bigger, make it a beer and a whiskey each. Look ahead to next week’s schedule and already start pondering what underdogs catch your attention there.
That is the prudent approach, and it should include Nebraska. One bartender might even comp you a whiskey if you tell him that.
Bonus Bet No. 2
Are you feeling a bit down this week? Has it just been a tough one? Do you need some quick perspective? Here:
Stanford’s entire offense has scored exactly one more touchdown this season than you have.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Boston College -14 (-105 at Caesars)🏈
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: No Stanford Touchdown (+500 at DraftKings)🏈
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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