We have a dandy conference affair between LSU and Florida.
LSU is looking to continue its strong start to the season, and the Gators will be looking to rebound from a humiliating loss to South Florida.
We’ve identified our three best bets in the prop market for this marquee matchup in my Florida vs. LSU prop picks for Saturday, September 12.
Florida vs LSU props for Week 3
Prop bet #1: Bauer Sharp anytime TD
Bauer Sharp is going to find paydirt sooner or later, and this is as good an opportunity as ever.
The 6'5" senior was a clear safety blanket in the big-time matchup last weekend at Clemson, hauling in five receptions and getting targeted seven times.
With a closely contested matchup once again on deck, you’d have to expect he’ll be looked to fairly often. And he’ll have a good matchup, too.
The Florida Gators have looked vulnerable against the RPO and play action, and Sharp will be filling the zones vacated by linebackers or safeties stepping up.
At Oklahoma, before transferring to the LSU Tigers, Sharp was a red-zone volume guy, and you’d expect that to continue here — especially after it’s clear that a strong relationship exists between him and QB Garrett Nussmeier.
Prop bet #2: Caden Durham Over 63.5 rushing yards
Almost everything about what the Florida defense has done this season would probably lead you in a different direction on this prop.
They’ve been a Top 25 team in EPA per rush allowed, and they’ve been even better at limiting explosive plays. But there’s more than meets the eye.
What Florida has not done well this season defensively is create havoc in the backfield. They rank in the bottom 43rd percentile in those categories, a stat more concerning when you consider that they’ve faced two offensive fronts against which they had a physical advantage.
That means a guy like Caden Durham, who is averaging almost 7 yards per carry, can reach this number by sheer volume — and it’s volume I expect him to get with the game script favoring the Tigers.
Prop bet #3: DJ Lagway Over 208.5 passing yards
This number is just too low.
The sophomore went over this number pretty easily in the loss to South Florida. It was a game he struggled in immensely, but he threw the ball over 30 times because Florida was often chasing points. I expect a similar story in this one.
Much like I expect Durham to get increased volume with LSU leading, I expect DJ Lagway to be forced to throw more with Florida trailing.
It certainly helps that I’m still not sold on the LSU secondary. They rank 32nd in EPA per pass attempt, but your perception of them is likely directly related to your view of Cade Klubnik.
I am lower on him than the market, and even though he struggled last weekend, the Clemson QB still exceeded this number. I’d play this to 215.5.
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