Of the nine games this weekend, seven contain some degree of win-and-in stakes.
The only two that do not are the MAC, where neither Western Michigan nor Miami (OH) has any feasible path to the Playoff, and the Big Ten, where No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana have both secured first-round byes and will be playing for the top seed in the bracket.
Yes, even Conference USA’s title game has some Playoff implications. If Kennesaw State wins as a short favorite, the Owls could conceivably make the Playoff if... Troy beats James Madison, Boise State beats UNLV, and Duke beats Virginia.
Is that likely? Of course not. A four-game moneyline parlay at FanDuel would pay +8295, but that is better than a 1% chance, and it makes the weekend more interesting as each result possibly unfolds.
Even if discounting C-USA, the other six conference title games all very much have win-and-in implications. This should be an absolute delight.
College football Conference Championship Week preview and betting news
- BYU, Not Miami
- Credit to Cignetti
- Heisman Head-to-Head
- Sports Are Politics
- Yale West of the Mississippi
BYU, Not Miami
Notre Dame has no genuine worry about Miami jumping the Irish to reach the Playoff. Endless pieces of convoluted logic want to fret about that this week, but that is all mere fodder.
No, gambling odds do not directly pertain to a selection committee as much as they do to on-field results. Human decision-making can also be a variable.
But gambling odds still provide a way of quantifying the actual conversation.
FanDuel lists Notre Dame at +280 to MISS the Playoff, while BYU is a +385 moneyline underdog in the Big 12 title game.
No one disputes that if the Cougars win the Big 12 championship, Notre Dame’s remaining Playoff hope will then be for Georgia to beat Alabama by a score of about 63-0. Given Kirby Smart’s conservative nature, let’s doubt that happens. So there is some direct correlation between a BYU win and the Irish's Playoff hopes.
The implied chance of Notre Dame missing the Playoff is about 26.3%. The implied chance of BYU winning the Big 12 title is about 20.6%. The difference in those two numbers is roughly the implied chance of Miami jumping Notre Dame on its own, 5.7%.
That is rough math, but allow it to lend some logic to an argument that has lost all common sense this week. It is not an argument of whether the Hurricanes should be in ahead of the Irish; it is an argument of whether the committee will jump the Hurricanes past the Irish.
There has been no indication that it will happen.
Credit to Cignetti
We do not give Curt Cignetti enough credit. So much happens in a college football season, we often forget big things, things like Indiana being a relatively middling team in preseason expectations.
ESPN.com’s preseason SP+ ratings projected the Hoosiers to be the No. 23 team in the country, just behind Auburn and just ahead of Louisville. If they had played in Week 1 on a neutral field, Ohio State would have been favored by about 13.5 points.
Now Indiana sits at No. 2 in both the rankings and the ratings, a 4-point underdog in the Big Ten title game, perhaps only out of respect for Ohio State’s 16-game winning streak, one in which the Buckeyes are also 14-1-1 against the spread, the sole ATS loss coming when Purdue scored in the final minutes of a 30-point blowout.
No matter how Saturday goes for the Hoosiers, give them credit. This kind of rise can be overlooked.
Similarly, SP+ viewed Texas Tech as the No. 29 team in the preseason and the No. 3 team now, improving by 18.3 points compared to the average team. That jump is more understandable, given the difficulty of evaluating a roster with as many imports as the Red Raiders enjoyed.
I am not sure Texas Tech is a national title contender. I am still pondering.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 5, 2025
I am absolutely certain we have not grasped how good the Red Raiders are.
With Behren Morton at QB, Tech is 7-0 ATS vs Power Four competition, exceeding the spread by at least two scores in every game. https://t.co/HiVsVnHLor pic.twitter.com/a8sJbPHwoz
Heisman Head-to-Head
Ponder who you think will win between Ohio State and Indiana. If you feel the Hoosiers will win, go ahead and bet that moneyline.
If, however, you think the Buckeyes hold serve, go ahead and bet Julian Sayin to win the Heisman, available at +195 at FanDuel.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia’s odds have shortened this week, rightfully so, now down to +175, trailing only Indiana pivot Fernando Mendoza at +165. It is not a difficult argument to make that Pavia has been the most outstanding player in the country. Vanderbilt has a valid Playoff case; whoever led that team is undoubtedly the most outstanding player in the country.
However, the Heisman Trophy is still a narrative award, and the efficient QB of an unbeaten No. 1 team in the country will almost certainly win it, particularly given he will have a showcase moment against his Heisman-hopeful counterpart on the final Saturday of the season.
Sayin does not need to play particularly well to secure the narrative vote, just better than Mendoza in a high-stakes moment. With Sayin’s accuracy, that feels rather likely.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Julian Sayin to win the Heisman (+195 at FanDuel)🏈
Sports are Politics
Remember, folks, politics are sports and sports are politics. There is no separating them.
I’m sorry, I refuse to believe Hakeem Jeffries knew who Lane Kiffin was two months ago https://t.co/2v97GgwCTp
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) December 4, 2025
Yale West of the Mississippi
This is unprecedented, and it should be profitable.
Yale trailed by 28 points late in the third quarter at Youngstown State last week and won in regulation to advance in the FCS Playoffs. Do not dismiss the Bulldogs simply because they have now gone west of the Mississippi River for the first time in any of our lifetimes.
Yale has been a notable underdog in two straight weeks, needing to win in both games to prolong its season.
Guess what? The Bulldogs are still playing.
But mostly, bet Yale at north of four touchdowns because some math suggests this spread against Montana State should be within 18, not more than 28.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Yale +28.5 (-115 at BetMGM)🏈
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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