The Victory Cannon and Michigan MAC trophies are both on the line as the Central Michigan Chippewas head to Kalamazoo to duke it out with the Western Michigan Broncos.
Both teams enter this contest brimming with confidence after CMU toppled Northern Illinois 37-31 after a strong start and WMU stomped Eastern Michigan 45-21.
There’s plenty of reasons reason to expect both offenses to keep rolling in Week 11 as both ground games on offense project to have notable advantages, and the pace of play is generally fast in Broncos games as they play up-tempo with regularity.
Read on as I break down the college football odds and give you my free college football picks for Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan on Tuesday, November 7.
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan best odds
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan picks and predictions
It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for Jim McElwain’s squad in 2023. The Central Michigan Chippewas have faced three difficult non-conference tests against FBS foes in Michigan State, Notre Dame, and South Alabama but managed to make it out 1-2 in that stretch thanks to a 34-30 victory over South Alabama.
Stuck in between the Michigan State and Notre Dame games was a near-embarrassment against FCS school New Hampshire, whom the Chips narrowly outlasted 45-42 on a last-second field goal.
Conference play has mostly been alright — the Chips are in second place in the West Division at 3-2. Losses to lowly Buffalo and Ball State (combined 5-13 record) don’t inspire confidence, but they averaged over 7.0 yards per play offensively in a victory in strong showings against both EMU and Northern Illinois and handled business against a bad Akron team.
The Chips check into this contest 76th in EPA per play offensively and 133rd defensively. Jase Bauer has been maddeningly inconsistent at quarterback but had a very strong outing last week, throwing for 116 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 106 yards and two more scores.
Running back Marion Lukes also had a breakout game, taking 21 carries for 202 yards and a score. Those figures came against a Huskies defense that had previously been pretty tough on the year and is allowing 23 points per game, so perhaps it’s a sign this unit is finding its groove.
Year 1 of the Lance Taylor Era was expected to be a massive rebuild for the Western Michigan Broncos as they lost a lot of talent via the portal and entered 2023 as one of the least experienced teams in the nation. They mostly exceeded expectations, losing to most of the teams that they were expected to while coming away victorious against FCS school St. Francis, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan.
The offensive system involves snapping the ball quickly in an up-tempo spread system. The Broncos rank 21st in plays per game (75) and have been decently efficient with those snaps, checking in at 78th in EPA per play and 86th in success rate. That may not look impressive at first glance, but it’s well above preseason expectations and cowers over CMU’s aforementioned pitiful defensive metrics.
WMU wants to keep the ball on the ground (25th in rush rate) and it should be able to against a CMU defensive front that has massive liabilities up front defensively, ranking just 128th in line yards and 125th in stuff rate.
The Chips have stopped the rush well all season (119th in EPA per rush, 125th in rushing success rate) and were without two of their top defensive players, Kyle Moretti and Donte Kent, last week. They face a Broncos offensive line that has been good at generating push (23rd in stuff rate) for running back Jalen Buckley, who's averaging 96.9 rushing yards per game and has scored seven times.
On the flip side of things, CMU is coming off its best offensive performance of the season. The Chips are a strong running team (37th in EPA per rush, 25th in rushing explosiveness) and could take advantage of a WMU defense that grades out 125th in PFF's rush defense grade.
The Broncos thrive defensively by creating chaos (seventh in havoc) but the Chips are well positioned to limit negative plays offensively considering they’re strong up front (37th in stuff rate), don’t turn the ball over (10 turnovers all season), and limit havoc at the 29th-best rate.
Both sides forecast a productive offensive outing and the pace of play should be favorable considering it’s a WMU game, so I’m betting the Over.
My best bet: Over 56 (-113 at Unibet)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Central Michigan vs Western Michigan same-game parlay
Over 56 (-112)
Jalen Buckley anytime TD (-245)
Kenneth Womack anytime TD (-130)
33% boost available
This three-leg SGP is correlated around the Over and involves two WMU players finding the end zone against a soft CMU defense.
The first will be running back Jalen Buckley, the star of the offense who was slowed by injury at the start of October but looked like his regular self in his last game, carrying 25 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns against EMU. He’s scored five times in five MAC games and this is one of the best matchups possible on paper.
The second play is wide receiver Kenneth Womack to find pay dirt. Similar to Buckley when healthy, Womack is absolutely peppered with volume offensively as this up-tempo system leans on its core pieces. He’s handled a whopping 46 targets across his last four games, which is the third-highest mark in the nation over that span.
The 5-foot-11 wideout has found the end zone just once this season but that’s bound to change sooner or later now that he’s seeing as much volume as any receiver in the country and this is a favorable matchup against the Chips, who rank 127th in EPA per pass defensively.
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Central Michigan vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
WMU is a 3.5-point favorite at most books while the total is set at 56.5 at most shops with 56 also available.
It’s been a struggle for CMU on the road as it is just 1-4 in away games but 4-0 at home. The Chips will now hit the road to face a WMU team that is well-rested coming off a bye.
There’s a case to be made that WMU is also the better team on both sides of the ball, so it’s understandable why the Broncos are favored by over a field goal at home despite having the worse record.
Their metrics are much better on the defensive end (83rd in EPA per play — 50 spots higher than CMU) while it’s very close on the offensive side of things (CMU ranks 76th in EPA per play; WMU is 78th).
The old-school handicapper in me still finds it difficult to lay the points with the home team. Both teams will be fired up for this contest but CMU just played one of its best games of the season and will be motivated to win back the Victory Cannon and the Michigan MAC trophy.
The Chips were undervalued a week ago when they won outright as 6.5-point underdogs, marking the second time this year they’ve pulled out an upset as an underdog — the other being against South Alabama as 16.5-point dogs.
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
WMU is 6-1 O/U across its last seven games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Central Michigan vs Western Michigan.
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan game info
| Location: | Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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